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Predicting Resource Policy Outcomes via Meta-Regression: Data Space, Model Space, and the Quest for 'Optimal Scope'

  • Klaus Moeltner and Randall S Rosenberger
Published/Copyright: August 13, 2008
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy
From the journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy Volume 8 Issue 1

Abstract

Resource-managing agencies are increasingly relying on secondary data to predict economic benefits for planned policy interventions. This `transfer of benefits' is often based on a quantitative synthesis of aggregate results for similar past interventions via Meta-Regression Models. However, this approach is generally plagued by the paucity of available studies and related small sample problems. A broadening of scope of the Meta-Regression Model by adding data from ``related, yet different" contexts or activities may circumvent these issues, but may not necessarily enhance the efficiency of transfer functions if the different contexts do not share policy-relevant parameters. We illustrate how different combinations of contexts can be interpreted as `data spaces' which can then be explored for the most promising transfer function using Bayesian Model Search techniques. Our results indicate that model-averaged benefit predictions for scope-augmented data spaces can be more robust and efficient than those flowing from the baseline context and data.

Keywords: Bayesian variable selection; model averaging; meta-analysis; benefit transfer; resource valuation
Published Online: 2008-8-13

©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston

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https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1682.2028
Keywords for this article
Bayesian variable selection; model averaging; meta-analysis; benefit transfer; resource valuation

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  1. Frontiers Article
  2. The Causal Effect of Studying on Academic Performance
  3. The Market: Catalyst for Rationality and Filter of Irrationality
  4. Advances Article
  5. Incompatibility, Product Attributes and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from ATMs
  6. Risk Attitude in Real Decision Problems
  7. The Effect of FDI on Job Security
  8. On the Optimal Allocation of Students and Resources in a System of Higher Education
  9. Giving It Away for Free? The Nature of Job-Market Signaling by Open-Source Software Developers
  10. Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002
  11. Lucky Last? Intra-Sibling Allocation of Child Labor
  12. Technological Proximity and Exclusive Buyer-Supplier Relationships
  13. The Internet and the Market for Daily Newspapers
  14. Optimal Policy with Heterogeneous Preferences
  15. A Representation Index: Measuring the Representation of Minorities in the Income Distribution
  16. Starting School at Four: The Effect of Universal Pre-Kindergarten on Children's Academic Achievement
  17. Contributions Article
  18. The Economics of Workaholism: We Should Not Have Worked on This Paper
  19. Millers, Commission Agents and Collusion in Grain Markets: Evidence from Basmati Auctions in North India
  20. Resources for Sale: Corruption, Democracy and the Natural Resource Curse
  21. Partners in Crime: Collusive Corruption and Search
  22. An Empirical Study of Happiness in Italy
  23. Fairness in Extended Dictator Game Experiments
  24. Income Insecurity and Youth Emancipation: A Theoretical Approach
  25. Pay Peanuts and Get Monkeys? Evidence from Academia
  26. Entry and Exit in the Nonprofit Sector
  27. Discrimination as a Competitive Device: The Case of Local Television News
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