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Going for the Green: A Simulation Study of Qualifying Success Probabilities in Professional Golf
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Robert A. Connolly
Published/Copyright:
October 27, 2011
Each year, over 1,300 golfers attempt to qualify for the PGA TOUR through Q-School. Using simulation, we estimate the probabilities that Q-School correctly identifies high-skill golfers. We show that players with skill equivalent to the very best on the PGA TOUR would have high probabilities of qualifying, but others, equal in skill to many active PGA TOUR members, would have low odds of qualifying. We explore the impact of variations in Q-school structure on qualifying probabilities for players with different skill levels, but most of the variations that improve tournament efficiency are largely impractical.
Keywords: golf; PGA TOUR; simulation; tournaments; Q-School; type I and II errors; skill; luck; smoothing spline
Published Online: 2011-10-27
©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Keywords for this article
golf;
PGA TOUR;
simulation;
tournaments;
Q-School;
type I and II errors;
skill;
luck;
smoothing spline
Articles in the same Issue
- Letter from the Editor
- The Next Step
- Article
- A Hierarchical Bayesian Variable Selection Approach to Major League Baseball Hitting Metrics
- Ups and Downs: Team Performance in Best-of-Seven Playoff Series
- The Penalty Shot/Optional Minor Choice in Ice Hockey
- Using Local Correlation to Explain Success in Baseball
- Exploring Competition Performance in Decathlon Using Semi-Parametric Latent Variable Models
- Going for the Green: A Simulation Study of Qualifying Success Probabilities in Professional Golf
- Rule of Tangent for Win-By-Two Games
- Effect of Differences in Kicking Legs, Kick Directions, and Kick Skill on Kicking Accuracy in Soccer Players
- The Methodology of Officially Recognized International Sports Rating Systems
- Scoring Strategies for the Underdog: A General, Quantitative Method for Determining Optimal Sports Strategies
- Using Tree Ensembles to Analyze National Baseball Hall of Fame Voting Patterns: An Application to Discrimination in BBWAA Voting
- An Estimate of How Hitting, Pitching, Fielding, and Basestealing Impact Team Winning Percentages in Baseball
