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Why On-Base Percentage is a Better Indicator of Future Performance than Batting Average: An Algebraic Proof
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Ben S Baumer
Published/Copyright:
April 28, 2008
Batting Average (AVG) and On-Base Percentage (OBP) are two of the most commonly cited statistics in baseball. Existing research has demonstrated that for a team, OBP is more closely correlated to runs scored than is AVG, and secondly, for players, OBP is more closely correlated over time than is AVG. We offer an algebraic explanation for the latter phenomenon. Specifically, we will prove that batting average depends more heavily upon a particularly unpredictable variable, hits per balls in play (HPBP), than does OBP. This result will explain why for both batters and pitchers, on-base percentage is a better indicator of future performance than batting average.
Published Online: 2008-4-28
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Conference Paper
- New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports
- Estimating Situational Effects on OPS
- Why On-Base Percentage is a Better Indicator of Future Performance than Batting Average: An Algebraic Proof
- Improving Major League Baseball Park Factor Estimates
- In Search of the "Last-Ups" Advantage in Baseball: A Game-Theoretic Approach
- The Role of Rest in the NBA Home-Court Advantage
- Racial Bias in the NBA: Implications in Betting Markets
- A Simple and Flexible Rating Method for Predicting Success in the NCAA Basketball Tournament: Updated Results from 2007
- The Passing Premium Puzzle Revisited
- Isolating the Effect of Individual Linemen on the Passing Game in the National Football League
- Probability and Statistical Models for Racing
- Improving Golf Instruction with the iClub Motion Capture Technology
- Composite Poisson Models for Goal Scoring
- Skill Evaluation in Women's Volleyball
- Probability Formulas and Statistical Analysis in Tennis
