Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election
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Justin Wolfers
Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden’s capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush’s electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign -– like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror -– are the key factors in the forthcoming election.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Feature
- Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election
- The Real Lesson of Enron's Implosion: Market Makers Are In the Trust Business
- Column
- Election 2004: Fiction vs. Reality
- The Budget Outlook: Projections and Implications
- Sense and Nonsense About Federal Deficits and Debt
- Economic Illiteracy on the Campaign Trail
- Letter
- Why Mickey Mouse is Not Subject to Congestion: A Letter on 'Eldred and Fair Use'
- Posner responds to "Why Mickey Mouse is Not Subject to Congestion," by Michele Boldrin and David Levine
Articles in the same Issue
- Feature
- Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election
- The Real Lesson of Enron's Implosion: Market Makers Are In the Trust Business
- Column
- Election 2004: Fiction vs. Reality
- The Budget Outlook: Projections and Implications
- Sense and Nonsense About Federal Deficits and Debt
- Economic Illiteracy on the Campaign Trail
- Letter
- Why Mickey Mouse is Not Subject to Congestion: A Letter on 'Eldred and Fair Use'
- Posner responds to "Why Mickey Mouse is Not Subject to Congestion," by Michele Boldrin and David Levine
