Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections
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Carl Klarner
This article makes forecasts for the 2010 state legislative and gubernatorial elections. These forecasts indicate the Republicans will add control of 15 legislative chambers and nine governor’s offices, leaving them with 51 chambers and 32 governorships. Forecasts about the extent of redistricting authority by the Democratic and Republican parties indicate the Republicans will have authority over 125 U.S. House seats, while the Democrats will have authority over 62. In a chamber level analysis of 2,141 legislative and a state level analysis of 758 gubernatorial elections, four national forces are used in predicting election outcomes from 1950 to present: presidential approval, change in per capita income, midterm loss, and the percentage of respondents who say they will vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House. The differential effect of these forces in states with the straight-ticket option is also taken into account. Monte Carlo simulation that takes into account states’ different rules regarding redistricting authority is then utilized to assess how many U.S. House seats the Democratic and Republican parties will control.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Article
- The Politics Missed by Political Science
- Fiction, Facts, and Truth: The Personal Lives of Political Figures
- Armed with Practice: Learning to Engage with the Military
- Whether and Whither an Applied Career Track for Doctoral Political Scientists
- Political Science and Practical Politics: A Journalist's Journey
- Is Political Science Relevant? Ask an Expert Witness
- Academics Outside the Academy
- Healing the Rift between Political Science and Practical Politics
- Political Science and Practical Politics
- Building a Political Science Public Sphere with Blogs
- Political Science at the State University in the State Capital
- Ten Things Political Scientists Know that You Don't
- Obama's "Big Bang" Presidency
- Forecasting Control of State Governments and Redistricting Authority After the 2010 Elections
- Review
- Review of The Narcissism of Minor Differences: How America and Europe Are Alike - An Essay in Numbers
- Review of The American Public Mind: The Issues Structure of Mass Politics in the Postwar United States
- Review of A Government Out of Sight: The Mystery of National Authority in Nineteenth-Century America
