Presidential Voting and the Local Variability of Economic Hardship
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Wendy K. Tam Cho
We examine variations in the impact of several components of economic hardship on the 2008 presidential vote by county. High gas prices, mounting foreclosures, and rising unemployment all enhance the Democratic vote share in areas critical to winning an Electoral College majority. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), however, we show the varying impact of these forces, controlling for previous Democratic voting, race, age, and income. Economic problems do not produce anything like a uniform response, and not merely because they are geographically uneven in their intensity. Some populations hit by economic downturn would not have voted for the incumbent's party under any circumstances, while others supported the in-party in spite of hard times. Even so, the combined weight of rising jobless claims and escalating foreclosures was sufficiently unsettling in key states to make for an early call on Election Night.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- The Obama Administration: Setting Up a Government
- Article
- Presidential Voting and the Local Variability of Economic Hardship
- The Legitimacy of Inexperience: Leadership from Outside
- Cautionary Tales from the Clinton Administration: First Year Lessons the New Democratic President Can Learn from the Last One
- Mandates, Honeymoons, and the Obama Administration
- Who Gets What Now? Interest Groups under Obama
- The Leadership Style of Barack Obama: An Early Assessment
- Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, and the Future of the "New American Party System"
- Obama's Ethics Agenda: The Challenge of Coordinated Change
- Obama and the Federal Judiciary: Great Expectations but Will He Have a Dickens of a Time Living up to Them?
- Understanding the Obama Presidency
- Turning the Tables: Individual Contributions, Member Contributions, and the Changing Campaign Finance Environment
- Review
- Review of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
- Review of Congressional Travels: Places, Connections, and Authenticity
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- The Obama Administration: Setting Up a Government
- Article
- Presidential Voting and the Local Variability of Economic Hardship
- The Legitimacy of Inexperience: Leadership from Outside
- Cautionary Tales from the Clinton Administration: First Year Lessons the New Democratic President Can Learn from the Last One
- Mandates, Honeymoons, and the Obama Administration
- Who Gets What Now? Interest Groups under Obama
- The Leadership Style of Barack Obama: An Early Assessment
- Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, and the Future of the "New American Party System"
- Obama's Ethics Agenda: The Challenge of Coordinated Change
- Obama and the Federal Judiciary: Great Expectations but Will He Have a Dickens of a Time Living up to Them?
- Understanding the Obama Presidency
- Turning the Tables: Individual Contributions, Member Contributions, and the Changing Campaign Finance Environment
- Review
- Review of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
- Review of Congressional Travels: Places, Connections, and Authenticity
