Don't Blame Primary Voters for Polarization
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Alan Abramowitz
In recent years, a number of media commentators and scholars have blamed primary voters for the rise of polarization in American politics. According to this argument, primary electorates are dominated by strong partisans whose views are more extreme than those of rank-and-file party supporters. This article uses data from recent exit polls of primary and general election voters as well as the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to test the primary election polarization theory. The evidence does not support the theory. In fact there appears to be very little difference between the ideologies of each party's primary voters and the ideologies of its general election voters. These findings suggest that the polarized state of American politics today reflects the polarized state of the overall American electorate rather than any peculiar characteristics of primary voters. The findings also suggest that even after they secure their party's nomination, it may be risky for candidates to adopt more moderate policy positions in order to appeal to swing voters, because any such move toward the center would risk alienating a large proportion of their party's electoral base.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- Special Issue: The Politics of Presidential Selection
- Article
- The Iowa Caucuses, 1972-2008: A Eulogy
- Handicapping the 2008 Nomination Races: An Early Winter Prospectus
- Political Parties in Rough Weather
- Don't Blame Primary Voters for Polarization
- Selecting Presidential Nominees by National Primary: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?
- Presidential Nominating Conventions: Past, Present and Future
- On the Air: Advertising in 2004 as a Window on the 2008 Presidential General Election
- Commentary
- The European Union, Turkish Limitations, and American Disinterest
- Review
- Glory Days: A Review of Bruce Miroff's The Liberals' Moment: The McGovern Insurgency and the Identity Crisis of the Democratic Party
- The Heart of the Problem: A Book Review of The Liberals' Moment by Bruce Miroff
- Response or Comment
- Response to Kenneth Baer and Elaine Kamarck
- Response to Bruce Miroff
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- Special Issue: The Politics of Presidential Selection
- Article
- The Iowa Caucuses, 1972-2008: A Eulogy
- Handicapping the 2008 Nomination Races: An Early Winter Prospectus
- Political Parties in Rough Weather
- Don't Blame Primary Voters for Polarization
- Selecting Presidential Nominees by National Primary: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?
- Presidential Nominating Conventions: Past, Present and Future
- On the Air: Advertising in 2004 as a Window on the 2008 Presidential General Election
- Commentary
- The European Union, Turkish Limitations, and American Disinterest
- Review
- Glory Days: A Review of Bruce Miroff's The Liberals' Moment: The McGovern Insurgency and the Identity Crisis of the Democratic Party
- The Heart of the Problem: A Book Review of The Liberals' Moment by Bruce Miroff
- Response or Comment
- Response to Kenneth Baer and Elaine Kamarck
- Response to Bruce Miroff
