Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
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Ray C Fair
Abstract
The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4--2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports. Although not tested in this paper, some of the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market decline, in which case most of the explanation is simply the stock market decline itself.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Advances Article
- Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market
- Optimal Time-Consistent Taxation with International Mobility Of Capital
- The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?
- Contributions Article
- The Effects of Industrialization on Education and Youth Labor in Indonesia
- A Closed Form Ramsey Saddle Path
- Indeterminacy, Stabilization Policy and Returns to Scale: A Re-Investigation
- Hiccups for HIPCs? Implications of Debt Relief for Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary Policy
- The Effects of Reducing Firing Costs in Spain: A Lost Opportunity?
- The Buffer-Stock Consumption Model with Endogenous Income Shifts
- Capital-Skill Complementarity and Rigid Relative Wages: Inference from the Business Cycle
- Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies
- The Underestimated Virtues of the Two-sector AK Model
- How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data?
- Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU
- Changing Technology Trends, Transition Dynamics, and Growth Accounting
- The 3-Equation New Keynesian Model --- A Graphical Exposition
- Topics Article
- Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts
- Technology Adoption in Follower Countries: With or Without Local R&D Activities?
- Non-Scale Models of R&D-based Growth: The Market Solution
- Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy
- Job Insecurity, Reallocation and Technological Innovation in a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- The Scope of Monetary Policy Actions Authorized Under the Federal Reserve Act
- Roads versus Schooling: Growth Effects of Government Choices
- Matching Up the Data on Education with Economic Growth Models
- An Active Public Investment Rule and the Downsizing Experience in the US: 1960-2000
- Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Currency Mismatches in Bank Intermediation?
- U.S. Regional Income and Technology: A Unit-Root and Cointegration Study
- Firm Entry with an Imperfect Labor Market
- Fiscal Policy and the Price Level
- Income Taxation, Productive Government Expenditure and Stochastic Growth: On Conditions for an Optimal Policy and the Role of the Risk Premium
- Income and Wealth Distributions Along the Business Cycle: Implications from the Neoclassical Growth Model
- Ramsey-Friedman Optimality with Banking Time
- Optimal Fiscal Policy with Rationing in the Labor Market
- The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation
- Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
- Human Capital and Growth: An Alternative Accounting
- Growing Old Together: Firm Survival and Employee Turnover
- Vertical Diversity, Communication Gap and Equilibrium Growth
- Should Developing Countries Strengthen their Intellectual Property Rights?
- Capital Accumulation in Private Information Economies