Abstract
The social sciences have often claimed the end of religiosity as one explanation for electoral behaviour in Europe. Nevertheless, left and right parties still incorporate religious and moral issues on the agenda in order to distance themselves from their opponents. This article undertakes a comparative study of 34 European democracies and examines the extent to which religious voting has diminished since the eighties. Results point to a sharp decline in the levels of religious vote until the nineties, followed by a revitalization since that time in a third of the countries included in the sample. The analysis also highlights the important role played by the political elite in activating the religious vote.
Acknowledgments
Asociacion Espanola de Ciencia Politica y de la Administracion (AECPA).
Appendix
Country-Level Characteristics.
| Economic polarizationa | Moral polarizationa | Main religious denominationb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.9 | 9.1 | Catholic |
| Belgium | 12.9 | 11.4 | Catholic |
| Bulgaria | 13.6 | 9.6 | Orthodox |
| Croatia | 7.6 | 8.4 | Catholic |
| Czech Republic | 19.4 | 5.9 | Catholic |
| Denmark | 14.4 | 9.6 | Protestant |
| Estonia | 3.9 | 7.6 | Mixed |
| Finland | 18.5 | 7.3 | Protestant |
| France | 14.8 | 8.1 | Catholic |
| East Germany | – | – | Protestant |
| West Germany | 12.1 | 10.8 | Mixed |
| Great Britain | 9.8 | 4.1 | Mixed |
| Greece | 12.9 | 7.5 | Orthodox |
| Hungary | 9.1 | 5.3 | Catholic |
| Iceland | 17.1 | 1.7 | Protestant |
| Ireland | 11.7 | 9.9 | Catholic |
| Italy | 31.3 | 9.4 | Catholic |
| Latvia | 5.6 | 8.6 | Mixed |
| Lithuania | 6.6 | 9 | Catholic |
| Macedonia | 8.1 | 10 | Orthodox |
| Malta | 16.2 | 10 | Catholic |
| Moldova | 8.1 | 4.5 | Orthodox |
| Montenegro | 3.6 | 10 | Orthodox |
| Netherlands | 10 | 9.3 | Mixed |
| Northern Ireland | – | – | Mixed |
| Norway | 26.4 | 8.5 | Protestant |
| Poland | 6.5 | 11.8 | Catholic |
| Portugal | 8.5 | 17.4 | Catholic |
| Romania | 8.8 | 6 | Orthodox |
| Russia | 4.4 | 8.3 | Orthodox |
| Serbia | 9 | 9.9 | Orthodox |
| Slovak Republic | 21.2 | 10.4 | Catholic |
| Slovenia | 9 | 14 | Catholic |
| Spain | 13.9 | 10.4 | Catholic |
| Sweden | 20.9 | 8 | Protestant |
| Switzerland | 33.3 | 16.2 | Mixed |
| Ukraine | 8.1 | 4.6 | Orthodox |
aSource: Party Manifestos Project. See Laver and Budge (1992) for more details.
bSource: EVS (2008).
Linear Regression on the Ideology of the Party Voted (with Control Variables), by Country, 2008.
| West Germany | East Germany | Austria | Belgium | Bulgaria | Croatia | Denmark | Slovak Republic | Slovenia | Spain | Estonia | Finland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociodemographic variables | ||||||||||||
| Gender (ref: man) | 0.15 | 0.40* | 0.49** | 0.35** | 0.22 | 0.38** | 0.65** | −0.13 | 0.03 | 0.37** | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Age | 0.01** | −0.01** | 0.01** | 0.01 | −0.02** | −0.01* | 0.00 | −0.01** | 0.00** | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Education | 0.00 | −0.03* | −0.03* | −0.01 | 0.03 | −0.10* | −0.04** | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03** | 0.04* | 0.08** |
| Religious practice | ||||||||||||
| Weekly church attendance | −0.35 | 0.30 | 0.12 | −0.01 | 0.49 | 0.37* | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.37** | 0.16 | 0.32 | −0.14 |
| Praying frequency | 0.09 | 0.24 | −0.32 | −0.30* | −0.45* | −0.08 | −0.06 | 0.49* | −0.1 | −0.27* | 0.48** | −0.01 |
| Religious denomination | ||||||||||||
| Catholic | 0.63** | 0.92 | 0.38 | 0.36* | 0.75** | 0.45* | −0.20 | −0.07 | 0.28** | 0.10 | 0.73 | −1.64 |
| Orthodox | 0.23 | −0.64 | 1.47 | −0.85 | 0.03 | −1.47** | 0.46 | |||||
| Protestant | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.46 | −0.72 | −0.28 | −2.55 | 0.63** | 0.06 | 0.10 | 2.65 | 0.38 | 0.56** |
| Others | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.45 | −1.46* | −0.08 | 0.43 | −0.77 | 0.03 | −0.19 | −0.26 | 1.13 |
| Believing | ||||||||||||
| God | 0.37* | −0.04 | −0.47* | 0.01 | −0.03 | 0.38 | 0.43* | 0.47 | 0.07 | 0.48** | −0.12 | 0.28 |
| Life after death | 0.07 | 0.54 | −0.25 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 0.08 | 0.09 | −0.03 | 0.01 | 0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 |
| Hell | −0.06 | −0.24 | 0.81** | 0.02 | 0.14 | −0.01 | 0.26 | −0.01 | 0.14 | −0.02 | 0.09 | −0.05 |
| Heaven | 0.22 | 1.25** | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.50 | 0.20 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Individual religiosity | ||||||||||||
| Importance of God in life | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11** | −0.10** | 0.01 | 0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | 0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Importance of religion in life | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.56** | −0.28 | 0.37 | 0.47** | −0.02 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| West Germany | East Germany | Austria | Belgium | Bulgaria | Croatia | Denmark | Slovak Republic | Slovenia | Spain | Estonia | Finland | |
| Trust in religious institutions | 0.17 | 0.39 | −0.27 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 0.58** | 0.24* | 0.06 | 0.47** | 0.81** | −0.02 | −0.02 |
| Constant | 3.83** | 5.22** | 4.89** | 5.12** | 5.51** | 3.86** | 5.24** | 5.25** | 4.35** | 3.34** | 4.46** | 2.90** |
| R2 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| n | 630 | 540 | 790 | 1.196 | 652 | 805 | 1.224 | 641 | 695 | 739 | 746 | 634 |
| France | Greece | Hungary | Ireland | Iceland | Italy | Latvia | Lithuania | Macedonia | Malta | Moldova | Montenegro | |
| Sociodemographic variables | ||||||||||||
| Gender (ref: man) | 0.10 | 0.56** | −0.04 | −0.15 | 0.66** | 0.31** | −0.04 | −0.09 | 0.55* | 0.07 | −0.20 | −0.14 |
| Age | 0.00 | 0.01 | −0.02** | 0.02** | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | −0.0* | −0.01** | −0.02** | −0.01 |
| Education | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04* | 0.02 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03* | −0.0 | −0.07** | 0.06** | 0.00 |
| Religious practice | ||||||||||||
| Weekly church attendance | 0.50* | 0.39* | 0.22 | 0.29* | 0.54 | 0.02 | −0.05 | 0.33 | 0.09 | −0.12 | −0.13 | 0.46* |
| Praying frequency | −0.09 | −0.32 | 0.13 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.48** | 0.12 | −0.2 | 0.01 | 0.23 | −0.04 |
| Religious denomination | ||||||||||||
| Catholic | 0.86** | −0.03 | 0.52* | 0.18 | 0.09 | −0.01 | −0.30 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.44 | −0.30 | |
| Orthodox | 0.68 | −0.27 | −1.28** | −0.36 | −1.4** | −0.44 | −0.52 | −0.18 | ||||
| Protestant | 0.42 | −0.13 | 0.74 | 0.84 | −0.20 | 0.63** | −1.05 | 0.90 | −2.64 | |||
| Others | 0.35 | 0.42 | −1.48* | 0.20 | 0.61 | −1.45* | 0.71 | −1.20 | −0.0 | −1.25 | 0.27 | |
| Believing | ||||||||||||
| God | 0.19 | 0.70 | −0.02 | 0.32 | −0.44 | 0.23 | −0.13 | 0.08 | 1.41** | 0.14 | 0.18 | −0.17 |
| Life after death | 0.02 | 0.23 | −0.11 | 0.36* | −0.07 | 0.12 | −0.16 | 0.15 | −0.0 | −0.19 | 0.71** | −0.11 |
| France | Greece | Hungary | Ireland | Iceland | Italy | Latvia | Lithuania | Macedonia | Malta | Moldova | Montenegro | |
| Hell | 0.49* | 0.16 | 0.59** | −0.34* | 0.26 | 0.19 | −0.03 | −0.56 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.12 | −0.08 |
| Heaven | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.53* | −0.20 | 0.15 | −0.17 | 0.02 | 0.53 | 0.08 | −0.17 | −0.25 | 0.34 |
| Individual religiosity | ||||||||||||
| Importance of God in life | −0.04 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07* | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | −0.01 | 0.07 | −0.01 |
| Importance of religion in life | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.01 | −0.14 | −0.23 | 0.40* | 0.02 | −0.20 | 0.35 | 0.18 | −0.41 | 0.10 |
| Trust in religious institutions | 0.20 | 0.78** | 0.27* | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.26 | −0.22 | −0.2 | −0.67** | −0.39 | 0.04 |
| Constant | 4.37** | 3.64** | 7.53** | 3.47** | 4.98** | 3.74** | 4.97** | 4.91** | 6.56** | 6.52** | 3.65** | 6.36** |
| R2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| n | 1011 | 768 | 763 | 496 | 459 | 684 | 554 | 577 | 437 | 744 | 675 | 635 |
| Norway | Netherl. | Poland | Portugal | Czech Republic | Great Britain | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Sweden | Switzerl. | Ukraine | |
| Sociodemographic variables | ||||||||||||
| Gender (ref: man) | 0.95** | 0.33** | −0.09 | 0.04 | −0.17 | 0.15 | −0.04 | −0.56** | 0.36 | 0.42* | 0.80** | 0.01 |
| Age | 0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01** | 0.00** | −0.02** | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03** | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | −0.02** |
| Education | −0.04 | −0.04* | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.29** | −0.03* | 0.02 | −0.01 | −0.0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | −0.03 |
| Religious practice | ||||||||||||
| Weekly church attendance | −0.22 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.31 | −0.12 | 0.01 | −0.05 | 0.03 | −0.14 | −0.06 | 0.23 |
| Praying frequency | −0.46 | −0.45** | −0.20 | 0.33 | −0.06 | −0.14 | 0.42 | 0.00 | −0.2 | −0.18 | 0.01 | −0.16 |
| Religious denomination | ||||||||||||
| Catholic | 1.61 | 0.60** | 0.64 | 0.92* | −0.16 | −0.05 | 0.11 | 0.28 | −0.8 | 1.05 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| Norway | Netherl. | Poland | Portugal | Czech Republic | Great Britain | Romania | Russia | Serbia | Sweden | Switzerl. | Ukraine | |
| Orthodox | 0.13 | −3.24** | −2.49 | −0.45 | −0.03 | 0.35 | −0.05 | 0.01 | −0.23 | |||
| Protestant | 0.68* | 1.10** | 0.94 | 0.30 | −0.31 | 0.51** | 0.04 | 1.04 | −1.7 | 0.13 | 0.74** | −0.37 |
| Others | 1.10 | 0.79** | 1.19 | −0.64 | −0.48 | −0.07 | 1.91 | 1.74** | 0.51 | −0.34 | ||
| Believing | ||||||||||||
| God | −0.57 | 0.16 | −0.44 | 0.16 | 0.14 | −0.19 | −0.75 | −0.01 | −0.5 | −0.03 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Life after death | 0.56* | −0.09 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.11 | −0.19 | −0.36 | −0.1 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.17 |
| Hell | 0.49 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.23 | −0.17 | −0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.43 | −0.65* |
| Heaven | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.20 | −0.17 | −0.70* | −0.11 | 0.09 | 0.22 | −0.6 | 0.31 | 0.10 | 0.94** |
| Individual religiosity | ||||||||||||
| Importance of God in life | 0.07 | −0.02 | 0.09 | 0.13** | −0.03 | −0.09** | −0.02 | 0.06 | 0.09 | −0.06 | 0.03 | −0.03 |
| Importance of religion in life | −0.57 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.37 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.24 | −0.19 | 0.41 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.22 |
| Trust in religious institutions | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.53** | 0.54* | 0.04 | −0.10 | 0.03 | −0.08 | 0.47* | 0.45* | −0.16 | 0.11 |
| Constant | 5.72** | 6.01** | 6.14** | 2.11** | 4.98** | 5.59** | 6.71** | 7.78** | 4.23** | 4.63** | 3.95** | 6.43** |
| R2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| n | 827 | 1200 | 587 | 546 | 807 | 791 | 615 | 804 | 774 | 652 | 554 | 728 |
Source: EVS (2008).
*Statistically Significant at 0.05. **Statistically Significant at 0.05.
Standard Errors Not Included for the Lack of Simplicity. Results Upon Request.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Articles
- Democratisation and New Social Movements
- (Re)Politicizing Security? The Legitimation and Contestation of Mass Surveillance after Snowden
- Institutionalisation of the Relations between the EC and the ASEAN: Analysing an Origin of the EU-Asia Relationship, 1967–1975
- Three Decades of Religious Vote in Europe
- Adversary Voting in the Czech Chamber of Deputies (1993–2013)
- The Norwegian State and Transgender Citizens: A Complicated Relationship
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Articles
- Democratisation and New Social Movements
- (Re)Politicizing Security? The Legitimation and Contestation of Mass Surveillance after Snowden
- Institutionalisation of the Relations between the EC and the ASEAN: Analysing an Origin of the EU-Asia Relationship, 1967–1975
- Three Decades of Religious Vote in Europe
- Adversary Voting in the Czech Chamber of Deputies (1993–2013)
- The Norwegian State and Transgender Citizens: A Complicated Relationship