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Unilateral Carbon Taxes, Border Tax Adjustments and Carbon Leakage

  • Joshua Elliott , Ian Foster , Sam Kortum , Gita Khun Jush , Todd Munson and David Weisbach EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: January 1, 2013
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We examine the impact of a unilateral carbon tax in developed countries, focusing on the expected size of carbon leakage (an increase in emissions in non-taxing regions as a result of the tax) and the effects on leakage of border tax adjustments. We start by analyzing the problem using a simple two-country, three-good general equilibrium model to develop intuitions. We then simulate the expected size of the effects using a new, open-source, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We analyze the extent of emissions reductions from a carbon tax in countries that made commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B countries), the expected carbon leakage, and the effects of border tax adjustments on carbon leakage, all relative to our baseline projections for emissions. We also perform extensive sensitivity tests on the parameters of the CGE model. Finally, we consider the effects of imperfect border tax adjustments on leakage, such as global or regional schedules of border taxes.


This work was supported by the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357, by grants from the MacArthur Foundation and the University of Chicago Energy Initiative, and by NSF grant SES-0951576. We thank Don Fullerton and Ken Judd for comments and thank participants at workshops at the American Economic Association annual meeting, Resources for the Future, NYU, Oxford, the University of Chicago, and Tel Aviv University.

Published Online: 2013-01-01
Published in Print: 2013-01

© 2013 by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co.

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