Abstract
The paper considers the problem of stress scenario selection, known as reverse stress testing, in the context of portfolios of financial assets. Stress scenarios are loosely defined as the most probable values of changes in risk factors for a given portfolio that lead to extreme portfolio losses. We extend the estimator of stress scenarios proposed in [P. Glasserman, C. Kang and W. Kang, Stress scenario selection by empirical likelihood, Quant. Finance 15 (2015), 1, 25β41] under elliptical symmetry to address the issue of data sparsity in the tail regions by incorporating extreme value techniques. The resulting estimator is shown to be consistent, asymptotically normally distributed and computationally efficient. The paper also proposes an alternative estimator that can be used when the joint distribution of risk factor changes is not elliptical but comes from the family of skew-elliptical distributions. We investigate the finite-sample performance of the two estimators in simulation studies and apply them on two financial portfolios.
Funding statement: The authors acknowledge financial support of the UBC-Scotiabank Risk Analytics Initiative and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
A Proofs β Section 3
A.1 Proof of Lemma 3.4
From (2.5),
In spherical coordinate, we have
Let
The above limit indicates
From (A.1), we have
A.2 Proof of Lemma 3.5
We first provide a result from [17], which will be used several times in the later proofs.
Let π be a random variable and let
We prove Lemma 3.5 assuming
Let
Thus
where
Furthermore,
since
A.3 Proof of Lemma 3.6
We prove Lemma 3.6 under the situation that
where
which indicates that
Furthermore, according to Lemma 3.4, there exists a function
Combining (A.5) and (A.6), we have, as
The integral in the above asymptotic equality is finite since
from Condition 3β(b) and the fact that
As a consequence, we obtain
A.4 Proof of Lemma 3.7
Let π be a regularly varying random variable satisfying the second-order condition with the auxiliary function
Let
Following arguments similar to (A.7), we can prove
For the first term, Lemma 3.4 indicates there exists a function
Based on [12, Theorems 2.3.6 and 2.3.9], (A.8) implies that, for any
where
Letting
Let
Note that
A.5 Proof of Theorem 3.8
For simplicity, let
At first, we establish two lemmas, which will be used to prove Theorem 3.8.
Let Conditions 1β3 hold.
If furthermore
Proof
Using notation similar to Section A.2, we have
We first prove that the first term converges to 0. From (A.4), we have
where
Thus
Note that
which also indicates that
The local uniform convergence on closed interval implies (A.11) as
Let Conditions 1β3 hold. Define
where
Proof
For any
For any
Since
by (A.2) with
With these two lemmas, we are ready to prove Theorem 3.8. Write
For
The second term converges to π in probability from (A.11). Using the Delta method, we have
from (A.10).
According to (A.12),
We have
Thus
Similarly, for
Following a procedure similar to Section A.2, we can prove
Thus, by the Lyapunov central limit theorem (CLT) [5], we have
According to [22], the convergence is jointly with
The proof of the fact that
via the Markov inequality. Next, the Chebyshevβs inequality gives convergence
A.6 Proof of Theorem 3.9
We should note that
Consistency
From Proposition 2.9, we have
Asymptotic normality
Lemma 3.6 and Lemma 3.7, respectively, imply
Furthermore, from Theorem 3.8, we have
For
which leads to
Theorem 3.2.5 in [12] suggests
From [12, Theorem 4.4.7], we have
which indicates
with the Slutsky theorem. Combining results above, we have
where
This indicates
Combining the results for
We obtain
B Proofs β Section 4
We begin with a proposition that gives necessary conditions for a skew-elliptically distributed random vector
Consider a π-dimensional random vector
then π is multivariate regularly varying with index π. The corresponding density function of Ξ¨ in (2.3) is given by
where
and π is the upper triangular matrix based on the Cholesky decomposition of Ξ©.
From [25, Lemma B.1], the statement
Proof
From [2, Proposition 2], we have
Using the stochastic representation of
where
Potter bounds (see, e.g., [27, Proposition 2.6]) for regularly varying functions and dominated convergence theorem give
We can see that
which leads to multivariate regular variation of π. And thus we have
where
B.1 Proof of Theorem 4.1
Let
First, we show the tail equivalence between
for every relatively compact set π΄ in
Hence
where
Combining results above, we have
Next we prove that the convergence above is uniform.
The first term converges to 0 by Theorem 2.5 and the second term converges to 0 as
C The GKK estimator: Lack of location invariance
This section reports results of a simulation study that shows that the GKK stress scenario estimator in (2.8) lacks location invariance.
Figure 7The sampling densities of stress scenario estimates of




We simulate 500 random samples of size
The sampling densities of the stress scenario estimates for different values of the location parameter are shown in Figure 7.
From the plots, we can see that, when
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