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Time consistency for scalar multivariate risk measures

  • Zachary Feinstein ORCID logo EMAIL logo and Birgit Rudloff ORCID logo
Published/Copyright: December 1, 2021
Become an author with De Gruyter Brill

Abstract

In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive formulation of multivariate scalar risk measures to multiportfolio time consistency. We are motivated to study time consistency of multivariate scalar risk measures as the superhedging risk measure in markets with transaction costs (with a single eligible asset) (Jouini and Kallal (1995), Löhne and Rudloff (2014), Roux and Zastawniak (2016)) does not satisfy the usual scalar concept of time consistency. In fact, as demonstrated in (Feinstein and Rudloff (2021)), scalar risk measures with the same scalarization weight at all times would not be time consistent in general. The deduced recursive relation for the scalarizations of multiportfolio time consistent set-valued risk measures provided in this paper requires consideration of the entire family of scalarizations. In this way we develop a direct notion of a “moving scalarization” for scalar time consistency that corroborates recent research on scalarizations of dynamic multi-objective problems (Karnam, Ma and Zhang (2017), Kováčová and Rudloff (2021)).

Funding statement: Birgit Rudloff acknowledges support from the OeNB anniversary fund, project number 17793.

A Proofs and auxiliary results for Section 4

A.1 Proofs of Section 4

Proof of Proposition 4.5.

First we will consider the setting with a full space of eligible assets M = d . Fix w L t 1 ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ { 0 } ) and X L ( d ) . Define 1 := ( 1 , , 1 ) 𝖳 d . Then by monotonicity, translativity, and normalization

ρ t w ( X ) ρ t w ( - X 1 ) = ρ t w ( 0 ) + X i = 1 d w i = X i = 1 d w i L t 1 ( ) ,
ρ t w ( X ) ρ t w ( X 1 ) = ρ t w ( 0 ) - X i = 1 d w i = - X i = 1 d w i L t 1 ( ) .

Now consider the general eligible space M. Fix w L t 1 ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) . First, by [24, Proposition 2.11 (viii)] the assumptions of this proposition imply that R t ( X ) for every X L ( d ) . Thus, by definition for any X L ( d ) and fixing any u * ( X ) R t ( X ) M t ,

ρ t M , w ( X ) = ess inf { w 𝖳 u : u R t ( X ) } w 𝖳 u * ( X ) L t 1 ( ) .

Second, define the set-valued risk measure R ¯ t : L ( d ) 𝒫 ( L t ( d ) ; L t ( + d ) ) by

R ¯ t ( X ) := { u L t ( m × + d - m ) : ( u 1 , , u m , 0 , , 0 ) 𝖳 R t ( X ) } .

By construction, R ¯ t is normalized, closed, and conditionally convex. Additionally, the normal direction w can be decomposed as

w = v + m

for v := ( w 1 , , w m , 0 , , 0 ) 𝖳 L t 1 ( R ¯ ~ t ( 0 ) + \ { 0 } ) and m := ( 0 , , 0 , w m + 1 , , w d ) 𝖳 M t . Thus, defining ρ ¯ t d , v as the scalarization of R ¯ t with full eligible space, we find

ρ t M , w ( X ) = ρ t M , v ( X ) ρ ¯ t d , v ( X ) L t 1 ( ) .

Proof of Proposition 4.11.

We will prove this result for the conditionally convex case for ρ t w only. The conditionally coherent and stepped cases follow identically with the representations given in Corollaries 4.9 and 4.10.

Define ρ ¯ t w : L p ( d ) by

ρ ¯ t w ( X ) := 𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] = inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ]

for any normal direction w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) and any portfolio X L p ( d ) . By [28, Proposition A.1.3], c.u.c. of the underlying set-valued risk measure R t implies ρ ¯ t w is lower semicontinuous. We now wish to prove that ρ ¯ t w is upper semicontinuous as well. To do so, we will minimally modify the proof of [42, Proposition 3.27] so as to only require h.l.c. and not full lower continuity. For any ϵ > 0 , there exists some u ϵ R t ( X ) such that

𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ϵ ] < inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ] + ϵ = ρ ¯ t w ( X ) + ϵ .

This implies that V := { u M t : 𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ] < ρ ¯ t w ( X ) + ϵ } is an open neighborhood of u ϵ . Therefore, by h.l.c., R t - [ V ] is an open neighborhood of X and, by definition,

ρ ¯ t w ( Y ) < ρ ¯ t w ( X ) + ϵ for any  Y R t - [ V ] ,

i.e., upper semicontinuity.

Therefore, by an application of [66, Theorems 2.4.2 (v) and 2.4.12] to the dual representation given by [28, Proposition A.1.1], we find that

ρ ¯ t w ( X ) = max ( , m ) 𝒲 t ( w ) inf Z A t 𝔼 [ ( w + m ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ Z - X t ] ]

for any w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) and X L p ( d ) . Fixing some normal direction w and portfolio X, let ( * , m * ) be maximizing arguments for the dual representation of ρ ¯ t w ( X ) . By the dual representation of ρ t w ( X ) , it follows that

ρ t w ( X ) - α t ( * , w + m * ) + ( w + m * ) 𝖳 𝔼 * [ - X t ] .

Finally, by the construction of ρ ¯ t w ( X ) = 𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] and the t -decomposability of the acceptance set A t it follows that

𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] = 𝔼 [ - α t ( * , w + m * ) + ( w + m * ) 𝖳 𝔼 * [ - X t ] ] ,

which implies that ( * , m * ) must also be maximizing arguments for the dual representation provided in Proposition 4.7. ∎

A.2 An auxiliary dual representation for scalarized risk measures

In this appendix we provide an auxiliary dual representation that splits the dual variables ( , m ) 𝒲 t ( w ) into a stepped part from time t to s and a second set of dual variables that exists at time s. This dual representation is used extensively in providing a time consistency relation in the Section 5.

Proposition A.1.

Let 0 t s T . Fix w L t q ( M + + \ M ) . Then for any X L p ( R d ) it follows that

ρ t w ( X ) = ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
(A.1) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )
(A.2) = ess sup ( , m , , n ) 𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ) ,

where

β t , s w ( , m , , n ) = ess sup Z A t 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - Z ) t ]

for any ( Q , m ) W t ( w ) and ( R , n ) W s ( w t s ( Q , w + m ) ) , and where

𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) = { ( , m , , n ) : ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) , ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) , 𝔼 [ β t , s w ( , m , , n ) ] < + } .

Proof.

First we will show (A.1). To do this, first we will show . This trivially follows from Proposition 4.7 by

ρ t w ( X ) = ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t ( w ) ( - α t ( , w + m ) + 𝔼 [ w t T ( , w + m ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )
= ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t ( w ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , 0 ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )
ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ) .

Now, to demonstrate , we will show the inequality for the expectations. Let ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) and let ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) . It follows that

𝔼 [ - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ]
= 𝔼 [ ess inf Z A t 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 Z t ] ] + 𝔼 [ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ]
(A.3) = inf Z A t 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( Z - X ) ]
(A.4) inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 u ]
= inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ ( w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ u s ] ]
= inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ ( w + m ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ u t ] ]
(A.5) = inf u R t ( X ) 𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ] = 𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] .

The inequality in (A.4) follows from the primal representation of the set-valued risk measure R t . The remaining lines follow from 𝔼 [ u s ] = 𝔼 [ u t ] = u and 𝔼 [ m 𝖳 u ] = 𝔼 [ n 𝖳 u ] = 0 . It remains to show that we are able to interchange the expectation and the infimum above in (A.3) and (A.5) due to the t -decomposability of A t . For the terminal interchange in (A.5) this is trivial. For (A.3) we demonstrate this by showing that { 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 Z t ] : Z A t } is t -decomposable.

Let u X , u Y { 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 Z t ] : Z A t } such that

u X = 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 X t ] and u Y = 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 Y t ] .

Let D t . Then 1 D X + 1 D c Y A t , and thus

1 D u X + 1 D c u Y = 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( 1 D X + 1 D c Y ) t ]
{ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 Z t ] : Z A t } .

To complete the proof, we will demonstrate that (A.1) is equivalent to (A.2) in much the same manner. Since ( , m , , n ) 𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) implies that ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) and ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) , then it immediately follows that

ρ t w ( X ) ess sup ( , m , , n ) 𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )

by (A.1). Therefore it suffices to show the equivalence of the expectations of (A.1) and (A.2) in order to prove the desired property. Beginning with (A.1):

𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] = 𝔼 [ ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
+ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ) ]
= sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( 𝔼 [ - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
+ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ] )
= sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( 𝔼 [ - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) ]
+ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) ] )
= sup ( , m , , n ) 𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) 𝔼 [ - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ]
= 𝔼 [ ess sup ( , m , , n ) 𝒲 ~ t , s ( w ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n ) + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] ) ] .

The second and last equalities follow from t -decomposable. ∎

Remark A.2.

If all assets are eligible, M = d , then (A.1) and (A.2) follow immediately and are trivially equivalent to the duality result in Proposition 4.7 by considering the probability measure 𝕊 d such that d 𝕊 i d = ξ ¯ 0 , s ( i ) ξ ¯ s , T ( i ) for all i and, conversely, d d = ξ 0 , s ( 𝕊 ) and d d = ξ s , T ( 𝕊 ) .

B Proof of Lemma 5.7

Proof of Lemma 5.7..

We will prove this result by demonstrating that (iii) (ii) (i) (iii). Following this we will provide notes on any differences in the proof that are utilized when considering the opposite orderings that are stated in parentheses in the three assertions of Lemma 5.7.

(iii) (ii) First, consider the representation of ρ t w for any w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) given by (A.1). For any X L p ( d ) ,

ρ t w ( X ) = ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
+ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )
ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
+ 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )
ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - α t , s ( , w + m )
+ 𝔼 [ - α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) + ( w t s ( , m ) + n ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ - X s ] t ] )
= ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ( - α t , s ( , w + m )
+ 𝔼 [ ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n )
+ ( w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ - X s ] ) | t ] )
= ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ( - α t , s ( , w + m ) + 𝔼 [ ρ s w t s ( , w + m ) ( X ) t ] ) .

We are able to move the essential supremum inside the conditional expectation since

{ - α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) + ( w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ - X s ] : ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) }

is s -decomposable.

(ii) (i) Let X A t and assume X A t , s + A s (which is closed and convex by Assumption 4.4). Then there exists a Y L q ( d ) such that 𝔼 [ Y 𝖳 X ] < inf Z A t , s + A s 𝔼 [ Y 𝖳 Z ] . By the monotonicity property of acceptance sets, it follows that Y L q ( + d ) and, in fact, there exists ( , w + m ) 𝒲 t 𝒲 t , s such that Y = w t T ( , w + m ) . By the appropriate decomposability of the acceptance sets, we find that

inf Z A t , s + A s 𝔼 [ w t T ( , w + m ) 𝖳 Z ] = 𝔼 [ - α t , s ( , w + m ) ] + 𝔼 [ - α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) ] .

In particular, this implies that either w R t ( 0 ) + or 𝔼 [ - α t , s ( , w + m ) ] inf u R t ( 0 ) 𝔼 [ w 𝖳 u ] = - which is a contradiction to the strict inequality with 𝔼 [ w t T ( , w + m ) 𝖳 X ] constructed initially. Similarly, we can conclude that w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + . Then it follows that

0 = 𝔼 [ α t , s ( , w + m ) + α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) ] - 𝔼 [ α t , s ( , w + m ) + α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) ]
< - 𝔼 [ ( w + m ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ X t ] ] - 𝔼 [ α t , s ( , w + m ) + α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) ]
= 𝔼 [ - α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) ) + w t s ( , w + m ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ - X s ] ] - 𝔼 [ α t , s ( , w + m ) ]
𝔼 [ 𝔼 [ ρ s w t s ( , w + m ) ( X ) t ] - α t , s ( , w + m ) ]
𝔼 [ ρ t w ( X ) ] 0 .

This produces a contradiction, and thus X A t , s + A s . Note that the last step uses X A t if and only if ρ t w ( X ) 0 for every w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) .

(i) (iii) Let w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) , ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) , and ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) )

β t , s w ( , m , , n ) = ess sup Z t A t 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - Z t ) t ]
ess sup Z t , s A t , s ess sup Z s A s 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - Z t , s - Z s ) t ]
= ess sup Z s A t , s 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - Z t , s ) t ]
+ ess sup Z s A s 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - Z s ) t ]
= ess sup Z t , s A t , s ( w + m ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ - Z t , s t ]
+ ess sup Z s A s 𝔼 [ ( w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 𝔼 [ Z s s ] t ]
= α t , s ( , w + m ) + 𝔼 [ α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) t ] .

Note that M s = L s q ( M ) for all times s, thus n 𝖳 Z t , s = 0 almost surely for every Z t , s M s . Additionally, in the last line we can interchange the essential supremum and the conditional expectation by the s -decomposability of A s .

For the opposite orderings:

  1. In the implication from (iii) to (ii) we take advantage of the inequality on the penalty functions

    𝔼 [ β t , s w ( , m , , n ) ] 𝔼 [ α t , s ( , w + m ) + α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) ]

    and that, by definition,

    𝔼 [ α s ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) ] sup u R s ( 0 ) 𝔼 [ w t s ( , w + m ) 𝖳 ( - u ) ] = +

    if w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + . Thus by considering both (A.1) and (A.2), we find

    ρ t w ( X ) = ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ess sup ( , n ) 𝒲 s ( w t s ( , w + m ) ) ( - β t , s w ( , m , , n )
    + 𝔼 [ w s T ( , w t s ( , w + m ) + n ) 𝖳 ( - X ) t ] )

    for every X L p ( d ) and w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) .

  2. In the implication from (ii) to (i) we take advantage of Lemma B.1. This implies that

    0 - α t , s ( , w + m ) + 𝔼 [ ρ s w t s ( , w + m ) ( X ) t ]

    for every X A t , s + A s , ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) , w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) , and w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + . Thus, it follows that

    0 ess sup ( , m ) 𝒲 t , s ( w ) w t s ( , w + m ) R s ( 0 ) + ( - α t , s ( , w + m ) + 𝔼 [ ρ s w t s ( , w + m ) ( X ) t ] ) ρ t w ( X )

    for every w L t q ( R ~ t ( 0 ) + \ M ) . And this is true if and only if X A t .

Lemma B.1.

Let 0 t < s T . If X A t , s + A s , then for every w s L s q ( M + + \ M ) ,

- ρ s w s ( X ) ess inf Z A t , s w s 𝖳 Z .

Proof.

Assume X A t , s + A s . Then define X t , s A t , s and X s A s such that X = X t , s + X s . It immediately follows that

- ρ s w s ( X ) = - ρ s w s ( X s ) + w s 𝖳 X t , s w s 𝖳 X t , s ess inf Z A t , s w s 𝖳 Z .

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Received: 2019-07-27
Revised: 2021-11-19
Accepted: 2021-11-22
Published Online: 2021-12-01
Published in Print: 2022-01-01

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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