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On corrected phase-type approximations of the time value of ruin with heavy tails

  • Daniel J. Geiger ORCID logo EMAIL logo and Akim Adekpedjou
Published/Copyright: November 21, 2019
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Abstract

We approximate Gerber–Shiu functions with heavy-tailed claims in a recently introduced risk model having both interclaim times and premiums depending on the claim sizes. We apply a technique known as “corrected phase-type approximations”. This results in adding a correction term to the Gerber–Shiu function with phase-type claim sizes. The correction term contains the heavy-tailed behavior at most once per convolution and captures the tail behavior of the true Gerber–Shiu function. We make the tail behavior specific in the classical case of one class of risk insured. After illustrating a use of such approximations, we study numerically the approximations’ relative errors for some specific penalty functions and claims distributions.

Funding statement: This work was supported by the Missouri University of Science and Technology (formerly University of Missouri–Rolla) [Chancellor’s Fellowship, Graduate Assistantship].

A Proofs of Proposition 2 and Theorem 3

Suppose that B has phase-type representation (α¯,T¯). It is known that T¯ is invertible with an eigenvalue λmax of maximal real part in the negative half-plane. Where -γ=(λmax), it holds that b(u)Auke-γu for some A>0 and k{0,1,2,} by the Jordan canonical form and properties of matrix exponentials. See [5] for further details. Therefore, for this γ>0, we have bd(γ). Since b is phase-type, basic closure properties of phase-type distributions imply B¯ is phase-type also, with the same matrix T¯. In other words, B¯d(γ) for the same γ. Let fd(α) for α>0. For all α~(0,α), the property f(x)=O(e-α~x) follows directly from [18, Lemma 4.1 (2)]. For functions g and h satisfying g(x)=O(e-γx) (with γ>0) and hd(0), we have g=o(h) as a consequence of [9, Lemma 2.17].

Let us look closer at the implications of Assumption 1 for establishing Proposition 2. We begin with δ>0; because b is asymptotically Erlangian, we have b=o(c). Obviously, b=o(c) implies pϵ(u)ϵc(u). Further, b=o(c) also implies ωb=o(ωc), in turn implying ωϵ(u)ϵωc(u). When δ=0, as densities, B¯ and C¯ satisfy B¯=o(C¯) for the same reasons as b and c for δ>0. Thus P¯ϵ(u)ϵC¯(u) follows. Further, ωb=o(ωc) when α>0 implies that Ω¯b=o(Ω¯c). So then, we have Ω¯ϵ(u)ϵΩ¯c(u) for all α0.

The basic method of proving Proposition 2 is to show that Assumption 1 implies the conditions [18, Corollary 3.2 (2, 3, 5, 6)] placed on pϵ and ωϵ. Then the desired result rather easily follows by way of pϵ(u)ϵc(u) and ωϵ(u)ϵωc(u) when δ>0, and the relations P¯ϵ(u)ϵC¯(u) and Ω¯ϵ(u)ϵΩ¯c(u) when δ=0. One condition of [18, Corollary 3.2, equation (3.19)] is to have

g^ϵ(0)=λ00e-ρϵxpϵ(x+y)dxdy<1.

This inequality holds because gϵ is known to be defective (cf. [10]).

We will use a couple basic tools in showing Assumption 1 implies the conditions of [18, Corollary 3.2]. One tool is that for locally integrable α,βd(0), whenever lim supuα(u)β(u) and lim infuα(u)β(u) are both positive and finite, then the assertions α𝒮d(0) and β𝒮d(0) are equivalent (cf. [12, Lemma 1.2]). We give a second such tool in the following remark.

Remark 1.

With i{1,2}, suppose qi are positive constants and that the functions αi and βi from [0,) to [0,) are eventually positive. If α1=o(α2) and α2=O(β2), then

α(u):=q1α1(u)+q2α2(u)andβ(u):=q1β1(u)+q2β2(u)

satisfy α=O(β).

To see that α=O(β), choose k0>0 and u0 such that u>u0 implies α2(u)k0β2(u). Also choose u1 such that u>u1 implies α1(u)q2q1α2(u). For u>u0u1:=max(u0,u1),

α(u)=q1α1(u)+q2α2(u)2q2α2(u)2k0q2β2(u)2k0(q1β1(u)+q2β2(u))=2k0β(u).

Proof of Proposition 2.

First consider δ>0. We must show pϵ𝒮d(0). Following pϵ(u)ϵc(u), pϵd(0) results from cd(0). As probability densities, c and pϵ are globally integrable. Hence, having assumed that c𝒮d(0), we conclude pϵ𝒮d(0) also. Because ωϵ(u)ϵωc(u), ωcd(α) implies ωϵd(α) (for all α0). Then, for δ>0 and α>0,

mϵ(u)λ2δ2ρϵΩ¯^ϵ(ρϵ)pϵ(u)ϵλ2δ2ρϵΩ¯^ϵ(ρϵ)c(u).

The first asymptotic relation follows from [18, Corollary 3.2 (2)].

Next consider δ>0 and α=0. We observed that ωϵ(u)ϵωc(u). Because we assumed ωb directly Riemann integrable and ωc locally integrable, the assumption ωc𝒮d(0) implies the condition ωϵ𝒮d(0). Recall the relations that b=o(c) and ωb=o(ωc). Following Remark 1 with q1=1-ϵ and q2=ϵ, the relation c=O(ωc) implies pϵ=O(ωϵ). Likewise, ωc=O(c) implies ωϵ=O(pϵ). Therefore,

mϵ(u)λδωϵ(u)+λ2δ2ρϵΩ¯^ϵ(ρϵ)pϵ(u)ϵλδωc(u)+ϵλ2δ2ρϵΩ¯^ϵ(ρϵ)c(u).

The first asymptotic relation follows from [18, Corollary 3.2 (3)].

Now let δ=0. The density pϵ is eventually non-increasing because we assume so for c, and b as a phase-type density is asymptotically Erlangian. We need to have P¯ϵ𝒮d(0); first, C¯d(0) implies P¯ϵd(0) because P¯ϵ(u)ϵC¯(u). Next, having assumed ηϵ and ηc both finite, the densities P¯ϵ and C¯ are globally integrable, and locally as well. Finally, C¯𝒮d(0) implies P¯ϵ𝒮d(0). Similarly to δ>0, we find ωϵd(α) for α>0. Then, for δ=0 and α>0,

mϵ(u)λ2(1-ψϵ(0))2Ω¯^ϵ(0)P¯ϵ(u)ϵλ2(1-ψϵ(0))2Ω¯^ϵ(0)C¯(u).

Here, we first used [18, Corollary 3.2 (5)], and then of course P¯ϵ(u)ϵC¯(u).

Lastly, consider δ=α=0. Because we assumed Ω¯cd(0), we have Ω¯ϵd(0) because Ω¯b=o(Ω¯c). Clearly, ωϵ is eventually non-increasing. From Remark 1, the relation C¯=O(Ω¯c) implies P¯ϵ=O(Ω¯ϵ) because B¯=o(C¯). Likewise, Ω¯c=O(C¯) implies Ω¯ϵ=O(P¯ϵ) because Ω¯b=o(Ω¯c). Finally, Ω¯b=o(Ω¯c) with ωc globally integrable and Ω¯b dRi implies that Ω¯ϵ𝒮d(0) when Ω¯c𝒮d(0). By [18, Lemma 5.2 (2)], global integrability of ωc implies that Ω¯c is locally integrable. Therefore, for δ=α=0,

mϵ(u)λ1-ψϵ(0)Ω¯ϵ(u)+λ2(1-ψϵ(0))2Ω¯^ϵ(0)P¯ϵ(u)
ϵλ1-ψϵ(0)Ω¯c(u)+ϵλ2(1-ψϵ(0))2Ω¯^ϵ(0)C¯(u).

The first asymptotic relation is justified since we established Assumption 1 implies the conditions of [18, Corollary 3.2 (6)]. ∎

We will frequently use some basic properties about the operator T on functions in d(α) in proving Theorem 3. The following lemma establishes these properties.

Lemma 2.

Let ρ0 and α0; assume that hLd(α). We have: if αρ>0, then Tρh(u)1ρ+αh(u) and moreover TρhLd(α).

Proof.

The dominated convergence theorem is justified by [18, Lemma 4.1 (1)] and shows the first assertion after applying hd(α). The second assertion follows automatically from the first, namely that hd(α) implies Tρh(u-y)eαyTρh(u) for all real y. ∎

We will use the next lemma in handling compound geometric sums of phase-type densities while proving Theorem 3.

Lemma 3.

Let p be a probability density in the class Ld(γ) for some γ>0. If a(0,1), then

n=1anpn(x)=O(e-γ~x)

for any γ~(0,γ).

Proof.

We use induction. For the inductive step, letting γ~(0,γ), suppose pn(x)=O(e-γ~x), and analyze p(n+1)(x)=0xpn(x-y)p(y)dy. By [18, Lemma 4.1 (2)], for our γ~ there exist a1,x1>0 such that xx1 implies p(x)a1e-γ~x. By the inductive hypothesis, we may choose a2,x2>0 for which xx2 implies pn(x)a2e-γ~x. Now set x0=x1x2 and let x2x0. Split p(n+1)(x) into

I1(x)=x-x0xpn(x-y)p(y)dy

and

I2(x)=0x-x0pn(x-y)p(y)dy.

For I1(x), we use the variable change z=x-y. Observing that x-zx-x0x0, we find

I1(x)0x0pn(z)a1e-γ~(x-z)dz=e-γ~x0x0a1pn(z)eγ~zdz:=A1e-γ~x.

For I2(x), note that the limits of integration imply x-yx0. It follows that

I2(x)0x-x0a2e-γ~(x-y)p(y)dy=e-γ~x0x-x0a2eγ~yp(y)dye-γ~xa2p^(-γ~):=A2e-γ~x.

By [18, Lemma 4.1 (3)], p^(-γ~) is finite. Then for x2x0, we have the inequality p(n+1)(x)(A1+A2)e-γ~x. Hence, by induction pn(x)=O(e-γ~x) for all n+. By a simpler induction argument, i=1naipi(x)=O(e-γ~x) for all n+. Letting n establishes the lemma. ∎

We will demonstrate Theorem 3 for mcr(u) since the treatment of m mirrors that of mc. For the remainder of this section, let γ>0 be the value for which bd(γ). Because b^(s) is well-defined and analytic for (s)>-γ, there exists R(0,γ) such that l(-R)=0 and hence g^(-R)=1. By assuming ω dRi when δ>0 and Ω¯ dRi when δ=0, the key renewal theorem implies

m(u)h^(-R)-g^(1)(-R)e-Ru

for all δ0. See [10, Section 4] for more discussion. For our purposes, this implies both that md(R) and also m(u)=O(e-Ru). [18, Lemma 4.3 (1)] states the asymptotic form of convolving two locally integrable densities satisfying certain properties. We will use that result several times.

Lemma 4.

Let δ0. Choose an R(0,γ) satisfying l(-R)=0. Then mb(u) is in Ld(R).

Proof.

By Lemma 2, g(x)=λ𝒯ρP(x) is in d(γ) for all δ0. Because g is defective, Lemma 3 implies that n=1gn(x)=O(e-γ~x) for all γ~(0,γ). So, choose γ~ such that γ~(R,γ). Now we examine δ>0 and δ=0 separately.

For δ>0, because γ>R, [18, Lemma 4.3 (1)] implies bm(u)m(u)b^(-R). Thus, bmd(R), and likewise bm-md(R) by closure of d(R). Applying Lemma 2 to bm-m shows us that λTρ(bm-m)d(R) also. By the definition of m and the fact that ωb=ω, we see

mb(u)=m(u)+0uλTρ(bm-m)(u-x)n=1gn(x)dx+λTρ(bm-m)(u).

Because n=1gn(x)=O(e-γ~x) for all γ~(R,γ), a second invocation of [18, Lemma 4.3 (1)] shows

(A.1)limumb(u)-m(u)λTρ(bm-m)(u)=1+n=1(g^(s))n=11-ϕ(0)=ρδ.

Hence mbd(R) because md(R). For δ=0, analogously to bm we have B¯md(R). With B¯m replacing bm-m, the reasoning for (A.1) demonstrates

mb(u)-m(u)λ1-ψ(0)B¯m(u).

Hence mb is in d(R) for δ=0 also. ∎

Lemma 4 will serve to show mb=o(mc) when we prove Theorem 3 next. For, we shall see that mc is in d(0) in every case.

Proof of Theorem 3.

First let δ>0. We find that cm𝒮d(0) as follows. Since m(u)=O(e-Ru) for some R>0, we see

cm(u)c(u)m^(0)

from [18, Lemma 4.3 (1)]. For any y, similarly

cm(u-y)c(u-y)m^(0).

But by the definition of d(0), c satisfies c(u)c(u-y) for any y. Then clearly cm(u)cm(u-y) such that cmd(0). Because c and m are locally integrable and cm(u)c(u)m^(0), we see that c𝒮d(0) implies cm𝒮d(0). Likewise, since Lemma 2 shows that Tρcm(u)1ρcm(u), we observe Tρcm𝒮d(0).

Consider the other summands in hc. Since δ>0, Lemma 2 implies Tρωcd(α) for all α0. Meanwhile, Tρm is in d(R) and so o(cm), such that hc(u)λρ(ωc+cm)(u). If α>0, then ωc is also o(cm) and disappears from the right-hand side. Because m^(0)=λδρΩ¯^(ρ), finally we get

(A.2)hc(u){λ2δΩ¯^(ρ)c(u)if α>0,λ2δΩ¯^(ρ)c(u)+λρωc(u)if α=0.

The second line of (A.2) follows because ωc(u)+cm(u)ωc(u)+c(u)m^(0) when α=0. As u,

(A.3)|ωc(u)+cm(u)ωc(u)+c(u)m^(0)-1|=|cm(u)c(u)m^(0)-1ωc(u)c(u)m^(0)+1|<|cm(u)c(u)m^(0)-1|0.

For, c and ωc being in d(0) are eventually positive, so that ωc(u)c(u)m^(0)>0. The zero limit of course follows from cm(u)c(u)m^(0).

Next, hcd(0) for α0 is locally integrable. The compound geometric term with g(x) is O(e-γ~x). So, we may apply [18, Lemma 4.3 (1)]. We find

(A.4)limumc(u)hc(u)=1+n=1(g^(0))n=11-ϕ(0)=ρδ

such that mc(u)ρδhc(u). Combining (A.2) with (A.4) establishes Theorem 3 when δ>0.

Now let δ=0. For α0, our integrability assumptions on ωc imply local integrability of Ω¯c by [18, Lemma 5.2 (1) and (2)]. Hence hc is locally integrable also. Corresponding to (A.2), we find with

m^(0)=λ1-ψ(0)Ω¯^(0)

that

(A.5)hc(u){λ21-ψ(0)Ω¯^(0)C¯(u)if α>0,λ21-ψ(0)Ω¯^(0)C¯(u)+λΩ¯c(u)if α=0.

For (A.5), analogously to δ>0, C¯m𝒮d(0) follows from having C¯𝒮d(0) with ηc< and md(R) with R>0. When α>0, ωcd(α) implies Ω¯cd(α) by Lemma 2. Hence, Ω¯c is o(C¯m). When α=0, the analogue of (A.3) is that Ω¯c(u)+C¯m(u)Ω¯c(u)+C¯(u)m^(0). Because the term hc is in d(0) for α0, the analogue of (A.4) holds. Namely, mc(u)11-ψ(0)hc(u). Combined with (A.5), this establishes Theorem 3 for δ=0. ∎

Acknowledgements

Daniel J. Geiger would like to thank David E. Grow of Missouri S&T for some helpful conversation on technical details of mathematical analysis.

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Received: 2019-04-20
Accepted: 2019-11-04
Published Online: 2019-11-21
Published in Print: 2019-12-01

© 2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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