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Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis

  • Amy Y. Guisinger , Laura E. Jackson ORCID logo EMAIL logo and Michael T. Owyang
Published/Copyright: June 7, 2023

Abstract

We use a time-varying panel unobserved components model to estimate unemployment gaps disaggregated by age and gender. Recessions before COVID affected men’s labor market outcomes more than women’s; however, the reverse was true for the COVID recession, with effects amplified for younger workers. We introduce time-variation in both the hysteresis dynamics and the Phillips-curve coefficients on labor market slack. The aggregate Phillips curve flattens over time and hysteresis is countercyclical for all groups. We find heterogeneity in both the Phillips curve and hysteresis coefficients, with wages responding more to workers with an outside option (high school- and retirement-age) and larger effects of hysteresis for younger workers.

JEL Classification: C32; E24

Corresponding author: Laura E. Jackson, Bentley University, Waltham, USA, E-mail:

Julie K. Bennett and Ashley H. Stewart provided resource assistance. The authors thank Howard Wall for discussions. The authors benefitted from comments by conference participants at the SNDE 2022 and an anonymous referee. The views expressed here do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or the Federal Reserve System.


  1. Author contribution: All the authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this submitted manuscript and approved submission.

  2. Research funding: None declared.

  3. Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding this article.

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Supplementary Material

This article contains supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2022-0068).


Received: 2022-07-22
Accepted: 2023-05-22
Published Online: 2023-06-07

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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