Abstract
Above its traditional currency and debt crisis features, Lebanon’s ongoing crisis sheds the light on the inherent weakness of dollarized monetary systems. This crisis can be seen as a monetary crisis, as the country’s dollarized banking system’s liquidity and solvency problems led to the loss of the “moneyness” of its dollar denominated deposits. We analyze the different dimensions of this crisis and we make policy recommendations, inspired by the experience of the Argentine 2001–2002 convertibility crisis. Finally, we look into the redistributive implications of different conversion scenarios.
References
Amstad, M., F. Packer, and J. Shek. 2020. “Does Sovereign Risk in Local and Foreign Currency Differ?” Journal of International Money and Finance 101: 102099, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102099.Search in Google Scholar
Asonuma, T. 2016. “Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics.” IMF Working Paper WP/16/37.10.5089/9781475597738.001Search in Google Scholar
Athukorala, P.-C., and P. Warr. 2002. “Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience.” World Economy 25 (1): 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00419.Search in Google Scholar
Baldi-Delatte, A. L. 2009. “A Counterfactual Analysis of the Argentinian Monetary Transformation in 2002.” Applied Economics 41 (27): 3533–44, https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701522879.Search in Google Scholar
Bitar, J. 2019. “Dollar Liquidity, Money and Credit in a Small Open Dollarized Economy.” Unpublished.Search in Google Scholar
Bitar, J. 2021a. “The Unique Dollarization Case of Lebanon.” Economic Systems 45 (2): 100765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100765.Search in Google Scholar
Bitar, J. 2021b. “Foreign Currency Intermediation – Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation.” Latin American Journal of Central Banking 2 (2): 100028, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2021.100028..Search in Google Scholar
Calomiris, C. W. 2007. “Devaluation with Contract Redenomination in Argentina.” Annals of Finance 3 (1): 155–92, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10436-006-0064-9.Search in Google Scholar
Caprio, G., M. Dooley, D. Leipziger, and C. Walsh. 1996. “The Lender of Last Resort Function under a Currency Board: The Case of Argentina.” Open Economies Review 7: 625–50, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01886217.Search in Google Scholar
Chang, R., and A. Velasco. 2001. “A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (2): 489–517, https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530151144087.Search in Google Scholar
Damill, M., R. Frenkel, and M. Rapetti. 2015. “Macroeconomic Policy in Argentina During 2002–2013.” Comparative Economic Studies 57 (3): 369–400, https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2015.3.Search in Google Scholar
Desquilbet, J.-B. 2007. “Les contraintes de la politique monetaire libanaise (1993–2004): endettement public, dollarisation et taux de change fixe.” L’Actualite Economique 83 (2): 163–99.10.7202/017516arSearch in Google Scholar
Frenkel, R., and M. Rapetti. 2008. “Five Years of Competitive and Stable Real Exchange Rate in Argentina, 2002–2007.” International Review of Applied Economics 22 (2): 215–26, https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170701880734.Search in Google Scholar
Gennaioli, N., A. Martin, and S. Rossi. 2014. “Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions.” The Journal of Finance 69 (2): 819–66, https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12124.Search in Google Scholar
Gourinchas, P.-O., and H. Rey. 2007. “International Financial Adjustment.” Journal of Political Economy 115 (4): 665–703, https://doi.org/10.1086/521966.Search in Google Scholar
Gourinchas, P.-O., and H. Rey. 2014. “External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects.” In Handbook of International Economics, 4, 585–645. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.10.3386/w19240Search in Google Scholar
Hausmann, R., and A. Velasco. 2002. “Hard Money’s Soft Underbelly: Understanding the Argentine Crisis.” Brookings Trade Forum 2002: 59–104, doi:https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0006.Search in Google Scholar
Honohan, P. 2008. “The Retreat of Deposit Dollarization.” International Finance 11 (3): 247–68, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.01223.x.Search in Google Scholar
Ize, A., M. Kiguel, and E. Levy-Yeyati. 2006. “Managing Systemic Liquidity Risk in Financially Dollarized Economies.” Financial Dollarization: 216–40, https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230380257_9.Search in Google Scholar
Jeanneret, A., and S. Souissi. 2016. “Sovereign Defaults by Currency Denomination.” Journal of International Money and Finance 60: 197–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.03.004.Search in Google Scholar
Krugman, P. 1979. “A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11 (3): 311–25, https://doi.org/10.2307/1991793.Search in Google Scholar
Lane, P. R., and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti. 2018. “The External Wealth of Nations Revisited: International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.” IMF Economic Review 66 (1): 189–222, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-017-0048-y.Search in Google Scholar
Levy Yeyati, E. 2008. “Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy.” In Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, 185–218. University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4778.10.7208/chicago/9780226185040.003.0007Search in Google Scholar
Marshall, W. C. 2008. “Foreign Banks and Political Sovereignty: The Case of Argentina.” Review of Political Economy 20 (3): 349–66, https://doi.org/10.1080/09538250802170392.Search in Google Scholar
Mehrling, P. 2012. “The Inherent Hierarchy of Money.” Social Fairness and Economics: Economic Essays in the Spirit of Duncan Foley 169: 394.Search in Google Scholar
Mehrling, P. 2013. “Essential Hybridity: A Money View of Fx.” Journal of Comparative Economics 41 (2): 355–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.03.007.Search in Google Scholar
Mueller, J. 1994. “Dollarization in Lebanon.” IMF Working Paper No. 94/129.10.5089/9781451934618.001Search in Google Scholar
Murau, S. 2018. “Offshore Dollar Creation and the Emergence of the Post-2008 International Monetary System.” IASS Discussion Paper.10.2139/ssrn.3191981Search in Google Scholar
Na, S., S. Schmitt-Grohé, M. Uribe, and V. Yue. 2018. “The Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation.” American Economic Review 108 (7): 1773–819, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141558.Search in Google Scholar
Neaime, S. 2004. “Sustainability of Budget Deficits and Public Debt in Lebanon: A Stationarity and Co-integration Analysis.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 2 (1): 42–60, https://doi.org/10.2202/1475-3693.1019.Search in Google Scholar
Neaime, S. 2015. “Twin Deficits and the Sustainability of Public Debt and Exchange Rate Policies in Lebanon.” Research in International Business and Finance 33: 127–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.09.004.Search in Google Scholar
Obstfeld, M. 1996. “Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features.” European Economic Review 40 (3–5): 1037–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00111-5.Search in Google Scholar
Ozkan, F. G. 2005. “Currency and Financial Crises in turkey 2000–2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?” World Economy 28 (4): 541–72, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00691.x.Search in Google Scholar
Papazian, A. 2009. “Trust, Freedom, and Wealth Creation: A Political Economy of Dollarization in Lebanon.” In: Globalization and Development: A Handbook of New Perspectives. Oxford University Press: 98–117.10.2139/ssrn.895302Search in Google Scholar
Reinhart, C. M. 2002. “Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings.” The World Bank Economic Review 16 (2): 151–70, https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/16.2.151.Search in Google Scholar
Rogers, J. H. 1992. “Convertibility Risk and Dollarization in Mexico: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis.” Journal of International Money and Finance 11 (2): 188–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(92)90041-u.Search in Google Scholar
© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Determinants of Early Retirement in the UAE
- The Monetary Crisis of Lebanon
- Market Structure and Bank Conduct in the MENA Region
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Determinants of Early Retirement in the UAE
- The Monetary Crisis of Lebanon
- Market Structure and Bank Conduct in the MENA Region