Effect of Income Elasticity on MDG Health Indicators: The Case of MENA Countries
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Noha M. F. Emara
Abstract
The health target is still considered one of the most challenging goals for most Middle East and North African (MENA) Countries. Using Panel Least Square with Regional Dummies (LSDV) for 20 MENA countries over the period 2000–2009, the study concludes that with less than 5 years for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to be concluded, a significant acceleration in economic growth is required for the MENA countries to achieve their goals on reducing the under-five infant mortality rates (UFMR) and the maternal mortality rates (MMR) if these countries depended solely on economic growth. As a policy implication, MENA governments need to concentrate on developing and improving many areas including social and physical infrastructure as well as legal and financial institutions.
Appendix
Log of under-five mortality rate vs. log of per capita GNI
Log of MMR vs. log of per capita GNI
Country code
| Number | Country |
| 1 | Algeria |
| 2 | Bahrain |
| 3 | Djibouti |
| 4 | Egypt |
| 5 | Iran |
| 6 | Iraq |
| 7 | Israel |
| 8 | Jordan |
| 9 | Kuwait |
| 10 | Lebanon |
| 11 | Libya |
| 12 | Malta |
| 13 | Morocco |
| 14 | Oman |
| 15 | Qatar |
| 16 | Saudi Arabia |
| 17 | Syria |
| 18 | Tunisia |
| 19 | United Arab Emirates |
| 20 | Yemen |
Correlation between independent variables
| Per capita GNI | Female primary school completion rate | Access to improved sanitation facilities | Access to clean water | Measles immunization rate | Health expenditure | |
| Per capita GNI | 1.000 | |||||
| Female primary school completion rate | 0.5890 | 1.000 | ||||
| Access to improved sanitation facilities | 0.7119 | 0.8413 | 1.000 | |||
| Access to clean water | 0.4865 | 0.4549 | 0.7252 | 1.000 | ||
| Measles immunization rate | 0.5914 | 0.7840 | 0.7457 | 0.6825 | 1.000 | |
| Health expenditure | −0.1296 | −0.0335 | 0.0937 | 0.3179 | 0.1367 | 1.000 |
Computing growth using semi-log tend function of eq. [3] where
| # | Country | a | b |
| 1 | Algeria | 8.65 | 0.01 |
| 2 | Bahrain | 9.91 | 0.10 |
| 3 | Djibouti | 7.42 | 0.09 |
| 4 | Egypt | 8.10 | −0.01 |
| 5 | Iran | 8.91 | −0.06 |
| 6 | Iraq | 7.55 | −0.92 |
| 7 | Israel | 9.91 | −0.02 |
| 8 | Jordan | 8.15 | 0.02 |
| 9 | Kuwait | 10.52 | 0.08 |
| 10 | Lebanon | 8.77 | 0.03 |
| 11 | Libya | 9.36 | −0.14 |
| 12 | Malta | 9.64 | 0.03 |
| 13 | Morocco | 7.93 | 0.00 |
| 14 | Oman | 9.50 | −0.08 |
| 15 | Qatar | 8.01 | −0.05 |
| 16 | Saudi Arabia | 9.84 | −0.01 |
| 17 | Syria | 8.07 | 0.06 |
| 18 | Tunisia | 8.48 | 0.01 |
| 19 | United Arab Emirates | 9.01 | 0.06 |
| 20 | Yemen | 7.46 | 0.02 |
Under-five mortality rate gap analysis based on income elasticity
| Country | MDG Latest Year(1) | MDG Latest Value(2) | 2015 MDG Target(3) | Years Left to 2015(4) | MDG Required Growth “r”(5) | 2015 MDG Projection(6) | MDG Gap 2015(7) | Required Per-capita GDP (%)(8) | Actual Per-capita GDP “b”(9) | Per-capita GDP Gap(10) |
| Algeria | 2009 | 32 | 20 | 6 | −0.08 | 30.30 | −10.30 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Bahrain | 2009 | 12 | 5 | 6 | −0.14 | 7.72 | −2.72 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Djibouti | 2009 | 94 | 41 | 6 | −0.13 | 64.50 | −23.50 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Egypt | 2009 | 21 | 30 | 6 | 0.06 | 20.02 | 9.98 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 |
| Iran | 2009 | 31 | 24 | 6 | −0.04 | 23.88 | 0.12 | 0.06 | −0.06 | 0.12 |
| Israel | 2009 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.00 | 3.68 | 0.32 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jordan | 2009 | 25 | 13 | 6 | −0.10 | 22.88 | −9.88 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Kuwait | 2009 | 10 | 6 | 6 | −0.08 | 7.20 | −1.20 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Lebanon | 2009 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 0.01 | 10.58 | 2.42 | −0.02 | 0.03 | −0.05 |
| Libya | 2009 | 19 | 12 | 6 | −0.07 | 10.52 | 1.48 | 0.11 | −0.14 | 0.25 |
| Morocco | 2009 | 38 | 30 | 6 | −0.04 | 38.19 | −8.19 | 0.06 | −0.001 | 0.06 |
| Oman | 2009 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 0.04 | 9.35 | 6.65 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.03 |
| Qatar | 2009 | 11 | 6 | 6 | −0.10 | 8.80 | −2.80 | 0.14 | −0.05 | 0.15 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2009 | 21 | 14 | 6 | −0.07 | 20.27 | −6.27 | 0.10 | −0.01 | 0.11 |
| Syria | 2009 | 16 | 12 | 6 | −0.05 | 12.33 | −0.33 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Tunisia | 2009 | 21 | 17 | 6 | −0.03 | 20.33 | −3.33 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| United Arab Emirates | 2009 | 8 | 6 | 6 | −0.05 | 6.11 | −0.11 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Yemen | 2009 | 66 | 42 | 6 | −0.07 | 61.85 | −19.85 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
MMR gap analysis based on income elasticity
| Country | MDG Latest Year(1) | MDG Latest Value(2) | 2015 MDG Target(3) | Years Left to 2015(4) | MDG Required Growth “r”(5) | 2015 MDG Projection(6) | MDG Gap 2015(7) | Required Per-capita GDP (%)(8) | Actual Per-capita GDP “b”(9) | Per-capita GDP Gap(10) |
| Algeria | 2008 | 120 | 63 | 7 | –0.09 | 107.53 | –44.53 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Bahrain | 2008 | 19 | 6 | 7 | –0.15 | 7.65 | –1.65 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Djibouti | 2008 | 300 | 93 | 7 | –0.15 | 138.28 | –45.28 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Egypt | 2008 | 82 | 55 | 7 | –0.06 | 74.51 | –19.51 | 0.05 | –0.01 | 0.06 |
| Iran | 2008 | 30 | 38 | 7 | 0.03 | 17.61 | 20.39 | –0.03 | –0.06 | –0.03 |
| Israel | 2008 | 7 | 3 | 7 | –0.11 | 5.91 | –2.91 | 0.10 | –0.02 | 0.12 |
| Jordan | 2008 | 59 | 28 | 7 | –0.10 | 49.35 | –21.35 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Kuwait | 2008 | 9 | 3 | 7 | –0.15 | 4.59 | –1.59 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Lebanon | 2008 | 26 | 13 | 7 | –0.09 | 20.17 | –7.17 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Libya | 2008 | 64 | 25 | 7 | –0.13 | 18.66 | 6.34 | 0.11 | –0.14 | –0.25 |
| Morocco | 2008 | 110 | 68 | 7 | –0.07 | 111.11 | –43.11 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Oman | 2008 | 20 | 12 | 7 | –0.07 | 10.18 | 1.82 | 0.06 | –0.08 | –0.11 |
| Qatar | 2008 | 8 | 4 | 7 | –0.09 | 5.08 | –1.08 | 0.08 | –0.05 | 0.13 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2008 | 24 | 10 | 7 | –0.12 | 22.35 | –12.35 | 0.10 | –0.01 | 0.11 |
| Syria | 2008 | 46 | 30 | 7 | –0.06 | 27.04 | 2.96 | 0.05 | 0.06 | –0.04 |
| Tunisia | 2008 | 60 | 33 | 7 | –0.08 | 56.19 | –23.19 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| United Arab Emirates | 2008 | 10 | 7 | 7 | –0.05 | 5.78 | 1.22 | 0.04 | 0.06 | –0.03 |
| Yemen | 2008 | 210 | 135 | 7 | –0.06 | 184.25 | –49.25 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
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- 1
d = 1 Algeria, Malta, Morocco, Tunisia. d = 2 Egypt, Libya. d = 3 Israel, Jordan, Lebanon. d = 4 Syria, Iran, Iraq. d = 5 Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. d = 6 Djibouti, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin / Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East
- The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
- Effect of Income Elasticity on MDG Health Indicators: The Case of MENA Countries
- Corporate Governance, Capital Structure and Corporate Performance: Evidence from GCC Countries
- Book Review
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East
- The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
- Effect of Income Elasticity on MDG Health Indicators: The Case of MENA Countries
- Corporate Governance, Capital Structure and Corporate Performance: Evidence from GCC Countries
- Book Review
