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Analysis of substitution times in soccer

  • Rajitha M. Silva and Tim B. Swartz EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: August 26, 2016

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of determining optimal substitution times in soccer. We review the substitution rule proposed by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.) and provide a discussion of the results. An alternative analysis is then presented that is based on Bayesian logistic regression. We find that with evenly matched teams, there is a goal scoring advantage to the trailing team during the second half of a match. In addition, we provide a different perspective with respect to the substitution guidelines advocated by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.). Specifically, we observe that there is no discernible time during the second half when there is a benefit due to substitution.

Acknowledgments

Swartz has been supported by funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors thank Bret Myers for his assistance in characterizing the Myers (2012) substitution rule. The authors also appreciate several rounds of detailed comments provided by the Editor, the Associate Editor and three anonymous reviewers. These comments have helped improve the manuscript considerably.

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Published Online: 2016-8-26
Published in Print: 2016-9-1

©2016 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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