Empirical Evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” Heuristic
-
Stephan Nüesch
and
Hartmut Haas
Summary
“Never change a winning team” is a well-known heuristic that recommends not altering the composition of successful teams. Using game-level observations of the highest German soccer league over a period of seven seasons, we find that the number of changes in the starting line-up is significantly lower after wins than after losses, taking suspensions and unobserved team heterogeneity into account. We show that teams of coaches who follow the heuristic do not win significantly more often, and that coaches significantly decrease the number of changes in the starting line-up even after wins caused by the exogenous home field advantage. These results provide first suggestive evidence that coaches may be influenced by behavioural concerns when following the heuristic to not change winning teams.
© 2012 by Lucius & Lucius, Stuttgart
Articles in the same Issue
- Inhalt / Contents
- Guest Editorial
- Abhandlungen / Original Papers
- One for Sure or Maybe Three
- Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer
- Empirical Evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” Heuristic
- A Market’s Reward Scheme, Media Attention, and the Transitory Success of Managerial Change
- Gold, Silver, and Bronze: Determining National Success in Men’s and Women’s Summer Olympic Events
- Inner-Outer Lane Advantage in Olympic 1000 Meter Speed Skating
- Employment Effects of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah
- The Effects of Institutional Change in European Soccer
- A Contest Model of a Professional Sports League with Two-Sided Markets
- Infant Mortality of Professional Sports Clubs: An Organizational Ecology Perspective
- Buchbesprechung / Book Review
Articles in the same Issue
- Inhalt / Contents
- Guest Editorial
- Abhandlungen / Original Papers
- One for Sure or Maybe Three
- Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer
- Empirical Evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” Heuristic
- A Market’s Reward Scheme, Media Attention, and the Transitory Success of Managerial Change
- Gold, Silver, and Bronze: Determining National Success in Men’s and Women’s Summer Olympic Events
- Inner-Outer Lane Advantage in Olympic 1000 Meter Speed Skating
- Employment Effects of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah
- The Effects of Institutional Change in European Soccer
- A Contest Model of a Professional Sports League with Two-Sided Markets
- Infant Mortality of Professional Sports Clubs: An Organizational Ecology Perspective
- Buchbesprechung / Book Review
