Girls’ Education Still at Risk? Interplay of SDT and Intersectionality in Dropout Analysis

1 Introduction

Education is vital for sustainable development, but gender disparities in developing countries, particularly Malawi, hinder progress. Despite an 8-4-4 education structure and numerous interventions, girls face significant challenges in accessing and completing secondary education, with dropout rates exceptionally high in rural areas like Lilongwe Rural District. These challenges are exacerbated by socioeconomic conditions, cultural norms, inadequate facilities, household responsibilities, and long distances to school (Banda et al. 2024e).

Malawi has undertaken efforts to reduce dropout rates through governmental, international, and community-led initiatives, focusing on removing financial and logistical barriers. However, the lack of attention to intersectional factors and psychological needs has limited their effectiveness, often leading to the underutilization of resources. The introduction of Free Primary Education (FPE) in 1994 increased enrollment but failed to address systemic barriers such as poverty, cultural norms, and household duties, particularly for low-income, rural girls (National Statistical Office & ICF 2017; UNICEF 2023). Similarly, the National Girls’ Education Strategy combated gender-based violence and dropouts but overlooked the compounded effects of socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and geography, limiting its support for marginalized groups (The Government of Malawi 2018; Chimombo et al. 2014).

International programs like UNICEF Malawi’s Girls’ Education Program provided scholarships, supplies, and infrastructure improvements but often neglected psychological factors like autonomy, competence, and relatedness, reducing their long-term impact. CAMFED’s financial and mentorship support addressed relatedness but lacked an intersectional framework, leaving unsupported rural girls who face greater cultural resistance and logistical barriers (CAMFED 2023). Grassroots initiatives, such as Mother Groups, addressed issues like early marriage and absenteeism but failed to tackle systemic challenges like poverty and cultural expectations. They also lacked strategies to foster autonomy and competence, leaving marginalized girls vulnerable to systemic inequalities. While these interventions have localized impacts, they struggle to create sustainable solutions for reducing dropout rates among the most vulnerable girls.

2 Overlooked Intersectionality and Psychological Needs in Educational Interventions for Girls

The primary shortcoming of these interventions lies in their insufficient focus on intersectionality and the psychological needs critical for preventing school dropout. By treating girls as a uniform group, these initiatives overlook how intersecting identities – such as gender, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and rural residency – create unique educational barriers. This lack of specificity has resulted in interventions that may not effectively reach or support the most marginalized girls, who are often the ones most in need.

Many Malawian youths fall short of coping strategies when faced with challenges (Banda et al. 2024d). This could be partially due to low self-determination levels. Moreover, according to SDT, the psychological needs of autonomy, competence, and relatedness are crucial for fostering intrinsic motivation and sustained engagement in education. When these needs are unmet, girls are less likely to value or persist in their education, regardless of the material support provided. For instance, if a girl perceives herself as having no control over her educational choices (lack of autonomy) or as incapable of academic success (lack of competence), she is more likely to disengage from school, even if financial barriers have been removed.

The failure to incorporate intersectionality and address psychological needs in previous interventions has led to several unintended consequences. In some instances, girls have misused or underutilized the opportunities provided, such as scholarships or educational resources, because these interventions did not address the underlying motivations and barriers influencing their educational decisions. For example, a scholarship alone may not suffice to keep a girl in school if she faces pressure to marry early or feels unsupported in the school environment.

To achieve lasting impact, educational interventions must go beyond merely removing external barriers and focus on empowering girls to take ownership of their educational trajectories by cultivating self-determination skills. Without this empowerment, the effectiveness of these interventions is likely to be short-lived, as the challenges leading to dropout will resurface once external support is withdrawn. The current study addresses this significant gap by advocating for a dual approach that mitigates external barriers while enhancing girls’ internal capacities. By equipping girls with the skills necessary to navigate their educational journeys independently, this approach aims to ensure that interventions yield enduring benefits, enabling girls to remain resilient even in the absence of ongoing external support.

Thus, this research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of how to achieve sustainable educational outcomes for girls in Malawi. By applying Intersectionality and Self-Determination Theories, the study explores the dropout rates among girls, identifying how intersecting identities and unmet psychological needs contribute to this issue. The findings highlight the importance of developing targeted interventions that address material needs and foster autonomy, competence, and relatedness tailored to the specific contexts of different groups of girls. This approach aims to create a more supportive and motivating educational environment, ultimately reducing dropout rates and improving educational outcomes for girls in Malawi.

Despite extensive efforts from the government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and international bodies to mitigate these barriers, the dropout rate among girls in secondary schools remains critically high in Malawi. This persistent issue undermines the goals of gender equality and sustainable development, as outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 (Cameron et al. 2020; UNESCO Education Sector 2030 2017), Quality Education (Banda et al. 2024e), and 5, Gender Equality (A4ID 2022).

This study underscores the critical link between gender equality, female education, and sustainable development by uncovering girls’ multifaceted barriers in accessing and completing secondary education. Through an intersectionality framework, the study investigates the factors influencing girls’ dropout rates in rural districts of Malawi. It aims to propose targeted interventions that address these specific needs, thereby enhancing retention rates and contributing to sustainable educational development. The study is structured to achieve the following objectives:

1. Understand multi-level influences on dropout rates, including individual and school-level factors.

2. Determine the probability of girls dropping out of secondary school based on various predictor variables.

3. Specify and test relationships between psychological constructs and dropout rates.

4. Discriminate between dropouts and non-dropouts based on variables.

By addressing these objectives, this research provides a more holistic understanding of the dropout phenomenon among girls in rural Malawi. The findings will enrich the existing literature by offering a nuanced analysis considering the interplay between psychological needs and socio-cultural and economic barriers. This significant study will inform policymakers, educators, and NGOs on developing more effective strategies that address socioeconomic and cultural challenges and enhance girls’ psychological resilience and motivation. Ultimately, this approach aims to improve their educational outcomes and contribute to the broader goals of gender equality and sustainable development in the Global South.

The rest of this study is structured as follows: the literature review section is followed by methodology and design. After that is the results section, followed by a discussion. The conclusion includes limitations, proposed future studies, and policy recommendations.

3 Literature Review

Intersectionality, introduced by Crenshaw (1989) and further developed by Collins (1991, 2015), provides a framework for understanding how intersecting social identities – such as gender, race, and socioeconomic status – shape unique educational challenges. These factors significantly influence students’ academic outcomes, as research demonstrates the compounded impact of these identities on educational achievement and experience (Collins 1991; Crenshaw 1989; Gershenson et al. 2021). Cultural norms and stereotypes reinforce systemic inequalities, limiting opportunities for marginalized groups (Boris 2008; Collins 2015; Hancock 2004). Girls, in particular, face barriers stemming from poverty, limited access to resources, and cultural devaluation of their education, which negatively affects their perceived competence and academic performance (Mamie Martin Fund 2016, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 2022). Intersecting disadvantages lower self-efficacy and increases dropout rates, with perceived competence being critical for academic engagement. Intersectionality identifies these barriers, guiding interventions to improve girls’ perceived competence. Perceived relatedness, a sense of belonging in school, is also shaped by intersecting social identities. Girls in rural Malawi face compounded challenges, including cultural norms prioritizing boys’ education and household responsibilities, which hinder their experiences and increase dropout risks (Gershenson et al. 2021; Goodenow and Grady 1993; Graham 2018; OECD 2019). Minority girls often report lower belonging due to discrimination, which negatively impacts their academic outcomes (Ghavami and Peplau 2018). Addressing these issues requires strategies encompassing girls’ identities and experiences (Good, Rattan, and Dweck 2012; McCall 2005). Cultural norms and lack of supportive relationships in rural areas exacerbate isolation, emphasizing the need for inclusive policies (Chimombo et al. 2014).

Perceived autonomy, or control over educational choices, is similarly constrained by traditional gender roles in rural Malawi, where household duties limit girls’ independence. Strategies to address these barriers include community engagement, policy reforms, and targeted educational programs (Deci and Ryan 2012). Integrating Intersectionality and Self-Determination Theories (SDT) provides a robust framework for understanding dropout factors. SDT emphasizes autonomy, competence, and relatedness as critical to intrinsic motivation, while intersectionality reveals how systemic inequalities shape these needs (Deci and Ryan 2012). Girls’ low perceived autonomy and competence, rigid school structures, and unsupportive relationships increase dropout rates (Chimombo et al. 2014; Deci and Ryan 2012). Addressing these needs improves engagement and reduces dropouts (Chimombo et al. 2014; Deci and Ryan 2012).

Socioeconomic status significantly impacts educational attainment, with economic hardship and the need to contribute to household income being key barriers in Malawi, where poverty drives high dropout rates . The school environment, including resources and distance, further influences outcomes. Inadequate facilities and long commutes contribute to dropouts, while supportive, resource-rich schools reduce them (Ang et al. 2024; Edgerton and McKechnie 2023; UNICEF 2023). Academic self-efficacy, a component of competence, is vital for success. Lack of support and feedback diminishes self-efficacy, increasing dropouts, while high self-efficacy fosters persistence, emphasizing the need for supportive academic environments.

4 Methodology and Design

This study utilized a mixed-methods design to examine the factors contributing to girls’ dropout rates from secondary schools in Lilongwe Rural District, Malawi. By combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, the research aimed to analyze the multifaceted nature of school dropout comprehensively. The qualitative component provided an in-depth exploration of participants’ lived experiences, offering insights into how autonomy, competence, social relationships, and economic barriers influence educational engagement and persistence (Banda et al. 2024c; Meissner et al. 2018). These context-specific findings were quantitatively validated to ensure generalizability to a larger population, enhancing the study’s robustness (Tashakkori and Teddlie 2010).

The mixed-methods design facilitated triangulation by cross-verifying data collected through different methods, such as interviews and surveys, thereby enhancing validity and reliability (Banda et al. 2024b; Bryman 2006). This approach balanced the inherent limitations of each method, providing a nuanced understanding of the psychological, socioeconomic, and cultural factors affecting educational outcomes. For example, statistical analysis established significant correlations between economic status and dropout rates, while qualitative data illuminated the underlying reasons for these relationships, offering actionable insights for policymakers (Greene 2007). Integrating qualitative and quantitative data during analysis made the findings statistically robust and contextually meaningful, forming a solid basis for culturally and contextually relevant interventions.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 participants, comprising 15 dropouts and 15 current students, selected using a stratified purposive sampling technique. This ensured diverse representation in terms of geographic location, socioeconomic status, grade level, dropout status, household responsibilities, and cultural norms, capturing the complexity of the dropout phenomenon (Patton 2015; Creswell and Plano Clark 2017). Interviews revealed detailed insights into the interplay of these factors and their contribution to dropout rates among rural Malawian girls. Although some participants initially hesitated to share their experiences, reassurance of confidentiality and anonymity encouraged openness. Table 1 summarizes the demographic characteristics of the interviewees.

5 Results

EFA and CFA were conducted to validate the constructs of perceived autonomy, competence, and relatedness. The EFA results in Table 3 revealed strong factor loadings for the items associated with each construct, indicating that the items effectively represented their respective factors. Subsequently, the CFA results supported these findings by demonstrating high standardized factor loadings, thereby confirming the reliability and validity of the constructs within the context of this study.

5.4 Profiles and Latent Classes

LCA identified distinct profiles and latent classes based on students’ survey responses. These analyses revealed groups with varying levels of perceived autonomy, competence, and relatedness corresponding to different dropout risks (Table 7).

Table 7:

Cluster analysis results.

Cluster	Number of students	Characteristics
Cluster 1	120	High perceived autonomy, competence, and relatedness; low dropout risk
Cluster 2	100	Moderate perceived autonomy and competence; high perceived relatedness; moderate dropout risk
Cluster 3	80	Low perceived autonomy and competence; low perceived relatedness; high dropout risk

Clustering analysis identifies three student groups based on autonomy, competence, and relatedness. The first group (120 students) with high levels of all three shows low dropout risk, reflecting strong perceptions of control, skill, and connection. The second (100 students) has moderate autonomy and competence but high relatedness, facing moderate dropout risk, as social support partly offsets lower autonomy and competence. The third group (80 students), with low levels of all three, faces a high dropout risk due to disempowerment, low confidence, and disconnection. Table 8 presents an LCA categorizing students based on these factors.

Table 8:

Latent Class Analysis (LCA) results, showing the sample proportion and characteristics of each class.

Latent class	Sample proportion	Characteristics
Class 1	40 %	High autonomy and competence, strong peer relationships, high academic performance
Class 2	35 %	Moderate autonomy, competence, and relatedness; moderate academic performance
Class 3	25 %	Low autonomy, competence, and relatedness; low academic performance; high dropout risk

Three clusters were identified through latent class analysis, each representing distinct levels of educational engagement and dropout risk. The first cluster, comprising 40 % of the sample, includes students with high autonomy, competence, strong peer relationships, and high academic performance, indicating a well-rounded profile with low dropout risk. The second cluster, encompassing 35 %, consists of students with moderate autonomy, competence, relatedness, and academic performance, suggesting some resilience but weaker outcomes than the first group. The third cluster, representing 25 %, includes students with low autonomy, competence, relatedness, and poor academic performance, placing them at the highest risk of dropping out.

This clustering highlights a gradient of dropout risk, demonstrating the need to prioritize fostering autonomy, competence, and peer support to enhance academic outcomes and reduce dropout rates.

Table 9 presents seven distinct codes: Lack of Autonomy, Support Systems, Household Responsibilities, Economic Challenges, Cultural Norms, Relatedness, and Perceived Competence.

Table 9:

Details the coding process.

Word list	Code developed	Theme
“Choice,” “control,” “decide,” “restrict,” “freedom,” “agency”	Lack of autonomy	Lack of autonomy and its impact on school engagement
“Help,” “support,” “encourage,” “teacher,” “mentor,” “peer,” “friendship,” “relationship”	Support systems	Importance of supportive relationships in educational persistence
“Housework,” “chores,” “family,” “siblings,” “responsibilities,” “duty”	Household responsibilities	The role of economic and social barriers in school dropout
“Fees,” “cost,” “afford,” “money,” “expenses,” “uniform,” “books,” “poverty,” “poor”	Economic challenges
“Expectation,” “society,” “norms,” “culture,” “gender roles,” “tradition,” “pressure”	Cultural norms	The role of economic and social barriers in school dropout
“Connected,” “belonging,” “community,” “involved,” “engaged,” “included”	Relatedness	Importance of supportive relationships in educational persistence
“Confidence,” “ability,” “skills,” “competence,” “perform,” “capable,” “achieve”	Perceived competence	Lack of autonomy and its impact on school engagement

Figure 1 was instrumental in developing three overarching themes from the qualitative analysis: Lack of Autonomy and Its Impact on School Engagement, Importance of Supportive Relationships in Educational Persistence, and The Role of Economic and Social Barriers in School Dropout. Each theme encapsulates a critical aspect of the participants’ experiences, reflecting the complex interplay between psychological factors, socioeconomic challenges, and cultural expectations that influence girls’ educational outcomes in rural Malawi.

Figure 1:

Word cloud highlighting key concepts from qualitative analysis.

6 Discussion

The results of this study provide a nuanced understanding of the factors influencing girls’ dropout rates from secondary schools in rural Malawi through the lens of Intersectionality Theory. This discussion situates the findings within the broader literature and the specific context of Malawi, highlighting corroborating and contradictory evidence from previous studies.

There was a critical trend in the educational journey of girls in Malawi, where dropout rates significantly increased as students progressed to higher forms, particularly in Forms three and 4. These findings corroborate studies by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology (2019), National Statistical Office, and ICF (2017), as well as the regional trends in the Global South, as reported by UNICEF (2023). This trend, which sees the highest dropout rates among girls aged 16–17 years (29 %), reflects the growing socioeconomic and cultural challenges they face as they near the completion of their secondary education. Despite the financial and social interventions by the government and NGOs, the statistics remain substantive (UNICEF 2023). Conversely, the dropout rates are markedly lower among younger students, with only 2 % of dropouts occurring among those aged 12–13 years in Form 1. This distribution aligns with the broader context of girls’ education in Malawi, where economic pressures, cultural norms, and educational barriers intensify in the later years of schooling, contributing to higher dropout rates among older girls.

Economic hardship is a predominant factor driving this trend. As girls grow older, the expectation to contribute to their family’s income becomes more pressing, often at the expense of their education. In many cases, families in Malawi are forced to make difficult decisions, prioritizing immediate economic survival over long-term educational attainment (UNICEF 2018). This economic imperative is particularly acute in rural areas, where opportunities for secondary education are limited, and the costs associated with schooling – such as transportation, uniforms, and school fees – are prohibitively high.

Cultural factors, especially early marriage and pregnancy, also play a significant role in the high dropout rates among older girls. These practices are deeply ingrained in many communities, particularly in rural areas, where girls are often seen as ready for marriage as soon as they reach puberty. As girls approach the ages of 16–17, the pressure to marry or adhere to traditional gender roles becomes overwhelming, leading to their withdrawal from school (National Statistical Office and ICF 2017). This trend is reflected in the data, which shows a sharp increase in dropouts in the upper forms, as girls are more likely to leave school for marriage or due to pregnancy.

The availability and quality of educational resources further exacerbate the problem. As students progress to higher forms, the academic content becomes more challenging, and the number of schools offering Forms 3 and 4 diminishes, particularly in rural areas. This scarcity of resources, combined with the difficulty of the curriculum, creates a situation where many girls struggle to keep up academically and are eventually forced to drop out (Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology 2019). The higher dropout rates in the later forms indicate the challenges girls face in accessing and completing secondary education, particularly in environments with limited educational support.

These findings corroborate a plethora of extant studies and reports. According to UNICEF (2018), dropout rates among girls in Malawi increase significantly as they approach the end of secondary school, driven by a combination of economic pressures, cultural expectations, and limited access to educational resources. Similarly, the Malawi Ministry of Education et al. (2019) has documented higher dropout rates in Forms three and 4, underscoring the impact of academic and logistical challenges on students’ ability to complete their education. The National Statistical Office and ICF (2017) also highlight the role of early marriage and pregnancy in exacerbating dropout rates, particularly among older girls.

The EFA and CFA confirmed that perceived autonomy, competence, and relatedness are distinct and significant constructs influencing dropout rates. These findings are consistent with SDT, which posits that fulfilling these psychological needs fosters intrinsic motivation and engagement. In the Malawian context, Chimombo et al. similarly found that the lack of supportive teacher-student relationships and rigid school structures diminish these psychological constructs, leading to higher dropout rates (Chimombo et al. 2014). Deci and Ryan reported that enhancing perceived autonomy and competence can significantly reduce dropout rates (Deci and Ryan 2012), corroborating our findings that higher perceived autonomy (β = −0.35, p < 0.01) and competence (β = −0.38, p < 0.01) are associated with lower dropout risks. The significance of relatedness (β = −0.32, p < 0.01) further underscores the importance of supportive social environments, aligning with Vallerand et al. (Vallerand, Fbrtier, and Guay 1997), who highlighted the role of relatedness in fostering academic persistence.

The HLM results [distance to school (β = 0.22, p < 0.05) and school resources (β = −0.26, p < 0.05)] revealed significant multi-level influences on dropout rates, including individual psychological factors and school-level variables such as distance to school and school resources, corroborating relevant extant studies.

Consistent with local findings by Gondwe (Gondwe 2016), our LRA identified perceived autonomy, competence, relatedness, household responsibilities, and economic status as significant predictors of dropout. Gondwe also highlighted that economic hardship and domestic duties are significant barriers to girls’ education in Malawi. Globally, UNICEF reported that socioeconomic barriers are primary determinants of school dropout among girls. The strong predictive power of household responsibilities (OR = 1.55, p < 0.01) and economic status (OR = 0.75, p < 0.05) in our study underscores the need for interventions that address these socioeconomic challenges, corroborating extant global studies (Hanushek and Woessmann 2021; UNICEF 2020, 2023; World Bank 2023).

PA revealed that perceived competence directly and indirectly affected dropout rates through academic performance. Our findings corroborate Fortier et al., who noted that academic self-efficacy influences students’ persistence via its impact on academic achievement (Fortier, Vallerand, and Guay 1995). The link between self-perception of competence and academic performance in Malawi has been well-documented. The indirect effect of perceived competence (β = −0.15, p < 0.05) through academic performance further supports the importance of fostering academic self-efficacy to enhance retention.

DA showed that perceived autonomy, competence, relatedness, household responsibilities, and economic status effectively discriminated between dropouts and non-dropouts. This finding is consistent with Deci and Ryan (Deci and Ryan 2012), who emphasized the role of psychological factors and socioeconomic conditions in educational outcomes. Chimombo et al. identified similar discriminating factors in Malawi, highlighting the critical need to address psychological and contextual educational barriers (Chimombo et al. 2014).

CA and LCA identified distinct profiles and latent classes based on students’ survey responses. These analyses revealed groups with varying levels of perceived autonomy, competence, and relatedness corresponding to different dropout risks. This approach is supported by Bowers and Sprott, who demonstrated that identifying student profiles can help tailor interventions to specific needs (Bowers and Sprott 2012). In Malawi, understanding these profiles is essential for developing effective strategies to address the unique challenges faced by different groups of students.

7 Conclusions

This study advances understanding of gender and education in the Global South by highlighting the intersectional factors shaping girls’ educational outcomes in rural Malawi. Integrating SDT and Intersectionality Theory reveals how autonomy, competence, and relatedness interact with socioeconomic and cultural barriers to influence dropout risks. The findings show how poverty and entrenched gender norms undermine psychological needs, emphasizing the need for tailored, intersectional interventions addressing individual and systemic barriers (Vogt, Gardner, and Haeffele 2012).

HLM and logistic regression highlight the roles of psychological and structural factors, such as school distance and inadequate resources, in predicting dropout, stressing the need for both empowerment and infrastructural improvements. PA demonstrates competence’s direct and indirect effects on dropout via academic performance, underscoring the importance of fostering self-efficacy. Discriminant and cluster analyses reveal distinct student profiles, supporting the necessity of context-sensitive, targeted interventions over-generalized approaches.

These recommendations require careful planning, sufficient resources, and sustained monitoring. Insights from this study offer valuable guidance for advancing gender equity and reducing educational disparities, not only in Malawi but across similar Global South contexts.

8 Limitations and Future Research Directions

The study’s reliance on secondary data limits its relevance to current contexts, underscoring the need for future primary data collection tailored to the research questions. Its geographical focus on one district restricts generalizability, highlighting the importance of including multiple regions for broader insights. The cross-sectional design prevents causal inferences, suggesting future longitudinal studies to capture evolving factors and intervention impacts. While profiles of autonomy, competence, and relatedness were identified, the lack of tested interventions for these groups limits practical application. Addressing these limitations through targeted, longitudinal research will enhance strategies to improve girls’ educational outcomes in Malawi.