The Presidential Election of 2012 by the Numbers and in Historical Perspective
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Verlan Lewis
Verlan Lewis is a PhD candidate in American Department of Politics at the University of Virginia.
and
James W. Ceaser
James W. Ceaser is Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of, among others,Nature and History in American Political Development (Harvard University Press, 2006), andAfter Hope and Change: The 2012 Election and American Politics , with Andrew Busch and Jack Pitney (forthcoming from Rowman and Littlefield).
Abstract
This essay explores the scope of President Obama’s re-election victory in 2012 by comparing it to previous presidential elections in American history. Three conclusions are drawn. First, Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 is modest by historical standards, though Obama did make history by becoming the first re-elected President to lose both Electoral College votes and popular vote share between his first and second election. Next, despite some claims that challenger Mitt Romney squandered an easy opportunity to win, the historical record of incumbents seeking a second term suggests that the advantage always lay with President Obama. Finally, the 2012 election marked a further step in a changing pattern of presidential elections in which national margins of victory tend to be much smaller, state landslides are more numerous, and swings from one party to another between consecutive presidential elections are minimized.
About the authors
Verlan Lewis is a PhD candidate in American Department of Politics at the University of Virginia.
James W. Ceaser is Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of, among others, Nature and History in American Political Development (Harvard University Press, 2006), and After Hope and Change: The 2012 Election and American Politics, with Andrew Busch and Jack Pitney (forthcoming from Rowman and Littlefield).
©2013 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- If I Could Hold a Seminar for Political Journalists…
- Sorting the American States into Red and Blue: Culture, Economics, and the 2012 US Presidential Election in Historical Context
- The Miserable Presidential Election of 2012: A First Party-Term Incumbent Survives
- The Presidential Election of 2012 by the Numbers and in Historical Perspective
- Campaign Effects and Dynamics in the 2012 Election
- How the Romney Campaign Blew it
- Negative, Angry, and Ubiquitous: Political Advertising in 2012
- Interest Groups in Electoral Politics: 2012 in Context
- Barking Louder: Interest Groups in the 2012 Election
- Why Super PACs: How the American Party System Outgrew the Campaign Finance System
- Super PACs and the 2012 Elections
- The Primary End Game and General Election Outcomes: Are they Connected?
- Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election
- The Roberts Court in an Era of Polarized Politics
Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- If I Could Hold a Seminar for Political Journalists…
- Sorting the American States into Red and Blue: Culture, Economics, and the 2012 US Presidential Election in Historical Context
- The Miserable Presidential Election of 2012: A First Party-Term Incumbent Survives
- The Presidential Election of 2012 by the Numbers and in Historical Perspective
- Campaign Effects and Dynamics in the 2012 Election
- How the Romney Campaign Blew it
- Negative, Angry, and Ubiquitous: Political Advertising in 2012
- Interest Groups in Electoral Politics: 2012 in Context
- Barking Louder: Interest Groups in the 2012 Election
- Why Super PACs: How the American Party System Outgrew the Campaign Finance System
- Super PACs and the 2012 Elections
- The Primary End Game and General Election Outcomes: Are they Connected?
- Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election
- The Roberts Court in an Era of Polarized Politics
