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Surge and Decline in 2022

  • John R. Petrocik EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: August 4, 2022
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The Forum
From the journal The Forum Volume 20 Issue 2

Abstract

Five models dominate academic analyses of elections for the House of Representatives. They are: (1) the surge and decline cycle of presidential elections and the successive off-year election; (2) the presidential performance model; (3) the retirement model; (4) the campaign spending model; and (5) the candidate quality model. The expected results for the 2022 Congressional election according to the first three models are presented here. Senate elections are not considered. The models differ in their predicted result. The smallest impact on 2022 is associated with the surge and decline cycle; the largest impact is found from incumbent retirements that reflect the prospective short-term forces in the election environment. The average of the three predictions for 2022 finds the Democratic Party losing their majority, giving the Republicans control of the House of Representatives for the 118th Congress.

Keywords: midterms; defection; coattails; partisanship; short-term-forces
Corresponding author: John R. Petrocik, University of Missouri, Missouri, USA, E-mail:

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Rod Kiewiet and Daron Shaw, who were kind enough to comment on the data, which I repeatedly sent to them as updates, over several months.

Appendix

Tables A1–A3

Table A1:

Short-term forces in presidential elections and defections rates.

Party helped by STFs Respondent’s party identification
Democrat Independent Republican Total
Neither voted
  Democrat 81 45 10 50
  Republican 19 56 88 50
Republicans voted
  Democrat 75 30 7 43
  Republican 22 66 92 55
Democrats voted
  Democrat 90 52 12 55
  Republican 7 38 84 41

  1. Table entries are column percentages.

Table A2:

Party voting in national elections.

Presidential elections House elections
Vote and party id On-year Off-year
  Loyal 78 77 76
  Defected 14 16 18
  Independent 8 7 6
  Total 100% 100% 100%

  1. Table entries are column percentages.

Table A3:

Regressions for the figures.

Correlation Intercept Slope Seat change
Surge 0.846 −99.58 2.02
Decline −0.887 0.89 −1.32 −12
Approve without 1994 0.796 −50.3 0.737 −20
Approve with 1994 0.646 −60.1 0.88 −23/−24
Retire w/o outliers −0.534 −0.50 −3.25 −17
Retire w/outliers −0.749 −14.51 −6.03 −48

  1. The retirement rate is calculated at a Democrat rate that is 5.5 percentage points greater than the Republican rate.

References

Abramowitz, A. I. 2022. Are The Democrats Headed For a Shellacking in the Midterm Election? Sabato’s Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Also available at https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/are-democrats-headed-for-a-shellacking-in-the-midterm-election/.Search in Google Scholar

Campbell, A., P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller, and D. E. Stokes 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Search in Google Scholar

Campbell, A. 1966. “Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change.” In 1966. Elections And the Political Order, edited by A. Campbell, P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller, D. E. Stokes. New York: John Wiley & Sons.10.1086/266960Search in Google Scholar

Ehrenhalt, A. 1992. The United States of Ambition: Politicians, Power, and the Pursuit Of Office. New York: Time Books.Search in Google Scholar

Jacobson, G., and S. Kernell. 1983. Strategy And Choice I Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale Uiversity Press.Search in Google Scholar

Lewis-Beck, M., G. J. William, N. Helmet, and F. W. Herbet. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.92266Search in Google Scholar

Masket, S. 2021. An Early Midterm Forcast. Also available at https://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/post/2022-midterm-forecast.Search in Google Scholar
Published Online: 2022-08-04

© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction
  3. Introduction: Volume 20 No. 2
  4. Articles
  5. The Rural-Urban Continuum and the 2020 U. S. Presidential Election
  6. Obama’s Party? An Examination of Whether a Reluctant Party Leader Transformed the Democratic Party in his Favor
  7. Public Opinion and the Candidate Spouses in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary
  8. Writing “Home” in a Pandemic: The Prevalence of Gendered Topics in Congressional COVID-19 Communications
  9. Attitudes and Perceptions about the 2020 Presidential Election and Turnout Intentions in the 2022 Midterms
  10. Embracing Donald Trump’s Big Lie and Making Voting Harder Are Republicans Sure They Know What They are Doing?
  11. Surge and Decline in 2022
https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2022-2059
Keywords for this article
midterms; defection; coattails; partisanship; short-term-forces

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction
  3. Introduction: Volume 20 No. 2
  4. Articles
  5. The Rural-Urban Continuum and the 2020 U. S. Presidential Election
  6. Obama’s Party? An Examination of Whether a Reluctant Party Leader Transformed the Democratic Party in his Favor
  7. Public Opinion and the Candidate Spouses in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary
  8. Writing “Home” in a Pandemic: The Prevalence of Gendered Topics in Congressional COVID-19 Communications
  9. Attitudes and Perceptions about the 2020 Presidential Election and Turnout Intentions in the 2022 Midterms
  10. Embracing Donald Trump’s Big Lie and Making Voting Harder Are Republicans Sure They Know What They are Doing?
  11. Surge and Decline in 2022
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