The Trump Effect: Filing Deadlines and the Decision to Run in the 2016 Congressional Elections
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Gavin Riley
Gavin Riley is an undergraduate student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill majoring in Political Science and History.
and
Jacob Smith
Jacob Smith is a PhD. Candidate in the Political Science Department at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he studies congressional elections, Congress, and public policy.
Abstract
In this paper, we examine whether the nomination of Donald Trump for president affected decisions to run for Congress in 2016 in states with later filing deadlines. We theorize that the perception among potential candidates that Donald Trump would be a weak nominee had the potential to entice high-quality Democratic candidates (defined as those who have previously held an elective office) to run for Congress as it became increasingly clear that Donald Trump would be the Republican presidential nominee. We also examine an alternative hypothesis that the impending Trump nomination enhanced political amateurs’ perception they could win in 2016, enticing them to run for Congress. Using a novel dataset from PredictIt, we find support for the second hypothesis, with more political amateurs running as the Trump nomination became more likely. These findings suggest that Donald Trump’s nomination had important consequences that went beyond the presidential race.
About the authors
Gavin Riley is an undergraduate student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill majoring in Political Science and History.
Jacob Smith is a PhD. Candidate in the Political Science Department at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he studies congressional elections, Congress, and public policy.
Acknowledgments
Thank you to Jonathan Spiegler, Simon Hoellerbauer, Jason Roberts, Sarah Treul, anonymous reviewers, editors, and audience members at the 2017 Midwest Political Science Association conference for helpful suggestions on this paper and to PredictIt for sharing data from their market on the 2016 Republican nomination.
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©2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Intro-summer
- Following Fenno: Learning from Senate Candidates in the Age of Social Media and Party Polarization
- Explaining Trump’s Support: What We Saw and Heard At His Campaign Rallies
- The Trump Effect: Filing Deadlines and the Decision to Run in the 2016 Congressional Elections
- What if Hillary Clinton Had Gone to Wisconsin? Presidential Campaign Visits and Vote Choice in the 2016 Election
- The Fight for American Restoration: Understanding the Paradoxical Foundations of the Trump Presidency
- Invisible Coattails: Presidential Approval and Gubernatorial Elections, 1994–2014
- When Yes Means No: GOP Congressional Strategy and the Reauthorization of the VRA in 2006
- Help or Hindrance? Outside Group Advertising Expenditures in House Races
- The Politics of Prioritization: Senators’ Attention in 140 Characters
- Book reviews
- Strategic Party Government: Why Winning Trumps Ideology
- Insecure Majorities
- Building the Bloc: Intraparty Organization in the US Congress
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Intro-summer
- Following Fenno: Learning from Senate Candidates in the Age of Social Media and Party Polarization
- Explaining Trump’s Support: What We Saw and Heard At His Campaign Rallies
- The Trump Effect: Filing Deadlines and the Decision to Run in the 2016 Congressional Elections
- What if Hillary Clinton Had Gone to Wisconsin? Presidential Campaign Visits and Vote Choice in the 2016 Election
- The Fight for American Restoration: Understanding the Paradoxical Foundations of the Trump Presidency
- Invisible Coattails: Presidential Approval and Gubernatorial Elections, 1994–2014
- When Yes Means No: GOP Congressional Strategy and the Reauthorization of the VRA in 2006
- Help or Hindrance? Outside Group Advertising Expenditures in House Races
- The Politics of Prioritization: Senators’ Attention in 140 Characters
- Book reviews
- Strategic Party Government: Why Winning Trumps Ideology
- Insecure Majorities
- Building the Bloc: Intraparty Organization in the US Congress
