Methodological proposal for constructing a classifier algorithm in clinical diagnostics of diseases using Bayesian methods

José Rafael Tovar Cuevas; Andrés Camilo Méndez Alzate; Diana María Caicedo Borrero; Juan David Díaz Mutis; Lizeth Fernanda Suárez Mensa; Lyda Elena Osorio Amaya

doi:10.1515/em-2021-0020

Article

Methodological proposal for constructing a classifier algorithm in clinical diagnostics of diseases using Bayesian methods

José Rafael Tovar Cuevas , Andrés Camilo Méndez Alzate , Diana María Caicedo Borrero , Juan David Díaz Mutis , Lizeth Fernanda Suárez Mensa and Lyda Elena Osorio Amaya

Published/Copyright: August 30, 2022

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From the journal Epidemiologic Methods Volume 11 Issue 1

Abstract

Objectives

To develop a methodological proposal to build clinical classifiers using information about signs and symptoms reported by the patient in initial the consultation and laboratory test results.

Methods

The proposed methodology considers procedures typical of the Bayesian paradigm of statistics as predictive probabilities and the sequential use of the Bayes formula. Additionally, some procedures belonging to classical statistics, such as Youden’s index and ROC curves, are applied. The method assumes two possible scenarios; when the patient only reports the signs and symptoms and the physician does not have access to information from laboratory tests. The other one is when the physician, besides the patient’s information, knows the blood test results. The method is illustrated using data from patients diagnosed with dengue.

Results

The performance of the proposed method depends of the set of signs and symptoms and the laboratory tests considered by the doctor as good indicators of presence of the sick in the individual.

Conclusions

The classifier can be used as a screening tool in scenarios where there is no extensive experience treating sick individuals, or economic and social conditions do not allow laboratory methods or gold standard procedures to complete the diagnosis.

Keywords: Bayes theorem; clinical classification; clinical diagnostic; ROC curve

Corresponding author: José Rafael Tovar Cuevas, Universidad del Valle, Valle del Cauca, Cali, Colombia, E-mail: jose.r.tovar@correounivalle.edu.co

Funding source: Universidad del Valle

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the scientific and administrative staff of the “Development and applied research to contribute to an effective and sustainable model of dengue intervention in Santander, Casanare, and Valle del Cauca” program and the Knowledge and Cooperation AEDES Network (Red Aedes) for their unconditional, timely, and professional support to conduct the study. We thank the managers and health personnel of all participating institutions Comfandi Torres, Alameda, and Calipso in Cali, and Clínica Piedecuesta, Hospital Local de Piedecuesta, and Hospital Regional de la Orinoquía in Yopal. We thank all research assistants Deici Narváez, Luisa Arias, Alejandra del Castillo, Juan Camilo Hernández, Javier Caicedo, Katherine Laurent, Lizeth Suárez, Liliana Soto, Katherin Quiñones, Gustavo Clemen, Diana Paredes, Liliana Cañón, Carlos Lucumí, Fernando Zamora, Tatiana Cortés, Leticia Rodríguez, Yadira Melo, and Mónica Consuegra for their hard work and contributions.

Research funding: This work was partially supported by Colombian Science, Technology and Innovation Fund of Sistema General de Regalías, Santander, Casanare, Valle del Cauca. BPIN 2013000100011, Universidad del Valle, and Caja de Compensación Familiar del Valle del Cauca COMFANDI. The funding organization played no role in the study desing; in the collection, anallysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; or in the decision to submit the report of publication.
Author contribution: All authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this manuscript and approved its submission.
Competing interests: Authors state no conflict of interest.
Informed consent: Informed consent was obtained from all individuals included in this study.
Ethical approval: The research related to human use has complied with all relevant national regulations, institutional policies, and in accordance with the tenets of the Helsinki Declaration, and has been approved by the authors’ Insitutional Review Board or equivalent comitee (Comité Institucional de Revisión de Ética Humana, 144-016).

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Received: 2021-05-11

Revised: 2022-04-30

Accepted: 2022-07-29

Published Online: 2022-08-30

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Articles in the same Issue

https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2021-0020

Keywords for this article

Bayes theorem; clinical classification; clinical diagnostic; ROC curve