Abstract
This paper discusses the empirical challenges associated with the estimation of the New Keynesian IS curve and provides an estimate of the forward looking IS curve by pooling macro data from 31 countries, delivering over 4000 observations on which to test the specification. The main finding of the paper is that it is possible to recover the theory-consistent IS curve from macro data when the sample size is large enough and the intrument is valid and strong. I also test the validity of the instruments by comparing estimates in countries which have or do not have an independent monetary policy reaction function. Another relevant finding is that the slope of the IS curve appears to have steepened over time since the 1990s, probably reflecting financial liberalisation.
Acknowledgment
I thank two anonymous referees, Alexander Chudik, Donata Faccia, Jordi Gali, John Leahy, Chiara Osbat and Giovanni Olivei for useful suggestions. The views expressed in this paper belong to the author and are not necessarily shared by the European Central Bank.
References
Angeloni, I., and M. Ehrmann. 2007. “Euro Area Inflation Differentials.” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 7 (1): 24.10.2202/1935-1690.1509Search in Google Scholar
Attanasio, O. P., and G. Weber. 2010. “Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy.” Journal of Economic Literature 48: 693–751.10.3386/w15756Search in Google Scholar
Campbell, J., and N. Mankiw. 1991. “The Response of Consumption to Income: A Cross Country Investigation.” European Economic Review 35: 715–721.10.1016/0014-2921(91)90033-FSearch in Google Scholar
Fuhrer, J. C. 2000. “Habit Formation in Consumption and Implications for Monetary Policy Models.” American Economic Review 90 (3): 367–390.10.1257/aer.90.3.367Search in Google Scholar
Fuhrer, J. C., and G. P. Olivei. 2004. Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations with GMM Estimators: An Optimal Instruments Approach.Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series No. 04-2.10.2139/ssrn.593470Search in Google Scholar
Fuhrer, J. C., and G. D. Rudebusch. 2004. “Estimating the Euler Equation for Output.” Journal of Monetary Economics 21: 1133–1153.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.10.004Search in Google Scholar
Gali, J., M. Gertler, and J. D. Lopez-Salido. 2005. “Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52: 1107–1118.10.3386/w11788Search in Google Scholar
Goodhart, C. A. E., and B. Hofmann. 2005. “The IS Curve and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Is There a Puzzle?” Applied Economics 37: 29–36.10.1080/0003684042000280355Search in Google Scholar
Hafer, R. W., J. Haslag, and G. Jones. 2007. “On Money and Output: Is Money Redundant?” Journal of Monetary Economics 54: 945–954.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.06.004Search in Google Scholar
Hafer, R. W., and G. Jones. 2008. “Dynamic IS Curves With and Without Money: An International Comparison.” Journal of International Money and Finance 27 (4): 609–616.10.1016/j.jimonfin.2008.02.005Search in Google Scholar
Hall, R. E. 1988. “Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption.” Journal of Political Economy 96 (2): 339–357.10.3386/w0720Search in Google Scholar
Havranek, T., R. Horvath, Z. Irsova, and M. Rusnak. 2013. Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Substitution.IES Working Paper 11/2013.10.2139/ssrn.2324903Search in Google Scholar
Ireland, P. N. 2004. “Money’s Role in the Monetary Business Cycle.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36 (6): 969–983.10.3386/w8115Search in Google Scholar
Kara, A., and E. Nelson. 2004. “International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics 66 (S1): 687–712.10.20955/wp.2003.020Search in Google Scholar
Kiley, M. T. 2010. “Habit Persistence, Nonseparability Between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?” The Review of Economics and Statistics 92 (3): 679–683.10.1162/REST_a_00019Search in Google Scholar
Moreira, M. J. 2003. “A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models.” Econometrica 71 (4): 1027–1048.10.1111/1468-0262.00438Search in Google Scholar
Muellbauer, J. 2010. Household Decisions, Credit Markets and the Macroeconomy: Implications for the Design of Central Bank Models.BIS Working Paper No. 306.Search in Google Scholar
Neiss, K., and E. Nelson. 2003. “The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 7: 239–262.10.1017/S1365100502020011Search in Google Scholar
Schorfheide, F. 2011. Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models: Progress and Challenges.NBER Working Paper No. 16781.10.21799/frbp.wp.2011.07Search in Google Scholar
Smets, F., and R. Wouters. 2007. “Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycle: A Bayesian DSGE Approach.” American Economic Review 97 (3): 969–606.Search in Google Scholar
Stock, J., J. H. Wright, and M. Yogo. 2002. “A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Indentification in Generalized Methods of Moments.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (4): 518–529.10.1198/073500102288618658Search in Google Scholar
Yogo, M. 2004. “Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments are Weak.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (3): 797–810.10.1162/0034653041811770Search in Google Scholar
©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Advances
- Does microfinance reduce poverty? Some international evidence
- Exchange rate policy and the role of non-traded goods prices in real exchange rate fluctuations
- Democracy and income: taking parameter heterogeneity and cross-country dependency into account
- Pass-through of imported input prices to domestic producer prices: evidence from sector-level data
- Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty
- Corruption, fiscal policy, and growth: a unified approach
- Monetary policy and energy price shocks
- Government education expenditures and economic growth: a meta-analysis
- Has the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbooks changed over time?
- Life-cycle consumption, precautionary saving, and risk sharing: an integrated analysis using household panel data
- Can removing the tax cap save Social Security?
- A non-monotonic relationship between public debt and economic growth: the effect of financial monopsony
- The Euler equation around the world
- Structural change and non-constant biased technical change
- Contributions
- Trade and growth in a model of allocative inefficiency
- Macroeconomic Shocks and Corporate R&D
Articles in the same Issue
- Advances
- Does microfinance reduce poverty? Some international evidence
- Exchange rate policy and the role of non-traded goods prices in real exchange rate fluctuations
- Democracy and income: taking parameter heterogeneity and cross-country dependency into account
- Pass-through of imported input prices to domestic producer prices: evidence from sector-level data
- Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty
- Corruption, fiscal policy, and growth: a unified approach
- Monetary policy and energy price shocks
- Government education expenditures and economic growth: a meta-analysis
- Has the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbooks changed over time?
- Life-cycle consumption, precautionary saving, and risk sharing: an integrated analysis using household panel data
- Can removing the tax cap save Social Security?
- A non-monotonic relationship between public debt and economic growth: the effect of financial monopsony
- The Euler equation around the world
- Structural change and non-constant biased technical change
- Contributions
- Trade and growth in a model of allocative inefficiency
- Macroeconomic Shocks and Corporate R&D