CONTENTS

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. CONTENTS vii
3. PREFACE ix
4. ABBREVIATIONS xi
5. CHAPTER 1. Fair Ball! 1
6. PART ONE. The Methods
7. CHAPTER 2. Manager’s Game Plan 9
8. CHAPTER 3. New Ball! 28
9. CHAPTER 4. Calling It a Career 45
10. CHAPTER 5. Talent Search 58
11. CHAPTER 6. Home Park Advantage 69
12. PART TWO. The Findings
13. CHAPTER 7. Swing, Batter! 99
14. CHAPTER 8. Hit . . . and Run 108
15. CHAPTER 9. This One’s Outta Here! 118
16. CHAPTER 10. Changing the Score 131
17. CHAPTER 11. The Count 149
18. CHAPTER 12. Stealing the Show 162
19. CHAPTER 13. Putting It All Together 168
20. CHAPTER 14. Fantasy League 177
21. CHAPTER 15. The Players Take the Field 189
22. CHAPTER 16. Final Score 204
23. CHAPTER 17. Post-Game Report 209
24. APPENDICES
25. APPENDIX A. The Piecewise Linear Regression Method 217
26. APPENDIX B. Moving Average Smoothing of Data 226
27. APPENDIX C. The Multiple Changepoint Regression Procedure 228
28. APPENDIX D. How to Estimate Ballpark Effects 235
29. APPENDIX E. Transformations of Offensive Event Averages 247
30. APPENDIX F. How to Adjust for Doubles and Triples 257
31. APPENDIX G. Predicting Runs and RBIs from the Batting Record 260
32. APPENDIX H. Regular Player Event Averages 265
33. APPENDIX I. Event Performance Spreads 266
34. APPENDIX J. Event Park Effects 267
35. APPENDIX K. Home Run Park Effects 284
36. APPENDIX L. Best Individual Seasons 297
37. APPENDIX M. Best Careers 327
38. APPENDIX N. Adjusted Career Offensive Averages 356
39. GLOSSARY 380
40. REFERENCES 387
41. PLAYER INDEX 389