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24. Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion
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Chapters in this book
- Frontmatter i
- CONTENTS vii
- Preface xi
- Acknowledgments xiii
- List of Abbreviations xv
-
PART I. BASEBALL
- 1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem 3
- 2. Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra or Ichiro Suzuki? 11
- 3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 17
- 4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 30
- 5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance 41
- 6. Baseball Decision- Making 52
- 7. Evaluating Fielders 64
- 8. Player Win Averages 71
- 9. The Value of Replacement Players 79
- 10. Park Factors 84
- 11. Streakiness in Sports 87
- 12. The Platoon Effect 102
- 13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 106
- 14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness 110
- 15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today? 113
- 16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56- Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time? 116
- 17. Major League Equivalents 123
-
PART II. FOOTBALL
- 18. What Makes NFL Teams Win? 127
- 19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? 132
- 20. Football States and Values 138
- 21. Football Decision- Making 101 143
- 22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts 151
- 23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass? 158
- 24. Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion 165
- 25. To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive 172
- 26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed? 175
- 27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL? 180
-
PART III. BASKETBALL
- 28. Basketball Statistics 101 187
- 29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 195
- 30. Adjusted+/-Player Ratings 202
- 31. NBA Lineup Analysis 224
- 32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 228
- 33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft 233
- 34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 237
- 35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed? 242
- 36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games? 244
- 37. End- Game Basketball Strategy 248
-
PART IV. PLAYING WITH MONEY, AND OTHER TOPICS FOR SERIOUS SPORTS FANS
- 38. Sports Gambling 101 255
- 39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker 262
- 40. Rating Sports Teams 266
- 41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA? 283
- 42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) 287
- 43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities 290
- 44. Optimal Money Management 298
- 45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses 303
- 46. Can Money Buy Success? 311
- 47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs? 319
- 48. Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All? 321
- 49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved? 324
- 50. Comparing Players from Different Eras 331
- 51. Conclusions 335
- Epilogue to the Paperback Edition 341
- Index of Databases 355
- Annotated Bibliography 357
- Index 367
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Chapters in this book
- Frontmatter i
- CONTENTS vii
- Preface xi
- Acknowledgments xiii
- List of Abbreviations xv
-
PART I. BASEBALL
- 1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem 3
- 2. Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra or Ichiro Suzuki? 11
- 3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 17
- 4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 30
- 5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance 41
- 6. Baseball Decision- Making 52
- 7. Evaluating Fielders 64
- 8. Player Win Averages 71
- 9. The Value of Replacement Players 79
- 10. Park Factors 84
- 11. Streakiness in Sports 87
- 12. The Platoon Effect 102
- 13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 106
- 14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness 110
- 15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today? 113
- 16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56- Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time? 116
- 17. Major League Equivalents 123
-
PART II. FOOTBALL
- 18. What Makes NFL Teams Win? 127
- 19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? 132
- 20. Football States and Values 138
- 21. Football Decision- Making 101 143
- 22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts 151
- 23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass? 158
- 24. Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion 165
- 25. To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive 172
- 26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed? 175
- 27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL? 180
-
PART III. BASKETBALL
- 28. Basketball Statistics 101 187
- 29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 195
- 30. Adjusted+/-Player Ratings 202
- 31. NBA Lineup Analysis 224
- 32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 228
- 33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft 233
- 34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 237
- 35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed? 242
- 36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games? 244
- 37. End- Game Basketball Strategy 248
-
PART IV. PLAYING WITH MONEY, AND OTHER TOPICS FOR SERIOUS SPORTS FANS
- 38. Sports Gambling 101 255
- 39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker 262
- 40. Rating Sports Teams 266
- 41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA? 283
- 42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) 287
- 43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities 290
- 44. Optimal Money Management 298
- 45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses 303
- 46. Can Money Buy Success? 311
- 47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs? 319
- 48. Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All? 321
- 49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved? 324
- 50. Comparing Players from Different Eras 331
- 51. Conclusions 335
- Epilogue to the Paperback Edition 341
- Index of Databases 355
- Annotated Bibliography 357
- Index 367