Critical Transitions in Nature and Society
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Marten Scheffer
and Marten Scheffer
About this book
How do we explain the remarkably abrupt changes that sometimes occur in nature and society--and can we predict why and when they happen? This book offers a comprehensive introduction to critical transitions in complex systems--the radical changes that happen at tipping points when thresholds are passed.
Marten Scheffer accessibly describes the dynamical systems theory behind critical transitions, covering catastrophe theory, bifurcations, chaos, and more. He gives examples of critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, climate, evolution, and human societies. And he demonstrates how to deal with these transitions, offering practical guidance on how to predict tipping points, how to prevent "bad" transitions, and how to promote critical transitions that work for us and not against us. Scheffer shows the time is ripe for understanding and managing critical transitions in the vast and complex systems in which we live. This book can also serve as a textbook and includes a detailed appendix with equations.
- Provides an accessible introduction to dynamical systems theory
- Covers critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, the climate, evolution, and human societies
- Explains how to predict tipping points
- Offers strategies for preventing "bad" transitions and triggering "good" ones
- Features an appendix with equations
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Frontmatter
i -
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Contents
vii -
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Acknowledgments
xiii -
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CHAPTER 1. Introduction
1 - Part I THEORY OF CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
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CHAPTER 2. Alternative Stable States
11 -
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CHAPTER 3. Cycles and Chaos
37 -
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CHAPTER 4. Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems
55 -
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CHAPTER 5. Implications of Fluctuations, Heterogeneity, and Diversity
81 -
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CHAPTER 6. Conclusion: From Theoretical Concepts to Reality
96 - Part II CASE STUDIES
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CHAPTER 7. Lakes
109 -
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CHAPTER 8. Climate
139 -
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CHAPTER 9. Evolution
166 -
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CHAPTER 10. Oceans
186 -
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CHAPTER 11. Terrestrial Ecosystems
216 -
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CHAPTER 12. Humans
240 -
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CHAPTER 13. Conclusion: Critical Transitions in a Complex World
259 - Part III DEALING WITH CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
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CHAPTER 14. How to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist
265 -
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CHAPTER 15. How to Know if a Threshold Is Near
282 -
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CHAPTER 16. The Winding Road from Science to Policy
296 -
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CHAPTER 17. New Approaches to Managing Change
311 -
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CHAPTER 18. Prospects
326 -
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Appendix
329 -
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Glossary
353 -
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Notes
359 -
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Index
379