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book: Rational Decisions
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Rational Decisions

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Language: English
Published/Copyright: 2008

About this book

It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.


The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.


Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

Author / Editor information

Ken Binmore is a mathematician turned economist and philosopher. He has held chairs at the London School of Economics and Political Science as well as other universities, and is professor emeritus of economics at University College London. His recent books include Natural Justice, Does Game Theory Work?, and A Very Short Introduction to Game Theory.

Reviews

"It is an original and stimulating book. I enjoyed it very much, and expect that you may too."---Brian Skyrms, British Journal for Philosophy of Science --- "[T]he book constitutes an interesting contribution to this area of research rewarding for philosophers, economists, psychologists, and mathematicians alike."---Reinhard Slick, Mathematical Reviews --- "Rational Decisions contains a wealth of stimulating arguments and thought-provoking claims. It would be an excellent text for an advanced seminar in decision theory, particularly for students with a solid technical background. And no economist, philosopher or political scientist seriously interested in theories of rational decision-making can afford to ignore Binmore's controversial and iconoclastic claims."---José Luis Bermúdez, Economics and Philosophy --- "This short, ambitious book is intended to appeal to the presumed curiosity of economists, statisticians, and philosophers as to what constitutes rationality in scientific induction. Binmore, a game theorist aware of the daunting complexity of his subject matter for nonspecialists, has gone to great pains in making his work accessible, even offering marginal symbols to indicate the substantial portions of the text best avoided by readers lacking the author's appetite for mathematical data."

Topics

  • Publicly Available

    Frontmatter

    i
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    Contents

    vii
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    Preface

    ix
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    1. Revealed Preference

    1
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    2. Game Theory

    25
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    3. Risk

    35
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    4. Utilitarianism

    60
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    5. Classical Probability

    75
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    6. Frequency

    94
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    7. Bayesian Decision Theory

    116
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    8. Epistemology

    137
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    9. Large Worlds

    154
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    10. Mathematical Notes

    175
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    References

    189
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    Index

    197
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    Backmatter

    201
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Publishing information
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
eBook published on:
December 29, 2008
eBook ISBN:
9781400833092
Edition:
Course Book
Pages and Images/Illustrations in book
View content
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400833092
eBook ISBN: 9781400833092
Keywords for this book
Probability; Utility; Preference (economics); Decision theory; Theory; Nash equilibrium; Bayesian probability; Axiom; Bayesian; Rationality; Decision problem; Preference relation; Inductive reasoning; Requirement; Almost surely; Bayes' theorem; Philosopher; Economics; Probability measure; Bayes' rule; Expected utility hypothesis; Calculation; Real number; Mathematics; Foundations of statistics; Reason; Diagram (category theory); Uncertainty; Objective Probability; Prior probability; Prisoner's dilemma; Utilitarianism; Common knowledge (logic); Suggestion; Conditional probability; State of the World (book series); Result; Probability theory; Contradiction; Alice and Bob; Strategy (game theory); Epistemology; Ambiguity; Expected value; Bayesian inference; Explanation; Linearity; Risk aversion; Principle; Subset; Matching Pennies; Rational choice theory; Rational agent; Natural number; Bruno de Finetti; Measure (mathematics); Lebesgue measure; Prediction; Indifference curve; Base rate fallacy; Posterior probability; Idealization; Superadditivity; Upper and lower probabilities; Decision-making; Axiom of choice; Ellsberg paradox; Veil of ignorance; Choice function; Economist
Audience(s) for this book
For an expert adult audience, including professional development and academic research
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