Adaptive Markets
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Andrew W. Lo
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Afterword by:
Andrew W. Lo
and Andrew W. Lo
About this book
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior
Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.
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Frontmatter
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Contents
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Adaptive Markets
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Introduction
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CHAPTER 1. Are We All Homo economicus Now?
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CHAPTER 2. If You’re So Smart, Why Aren’t You Rich?
45 -
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CHAPTER 3. If You’re So Rich, Why Aren’t You Smart?
75 -
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Chapter 4. The Power of Narrative
102 -
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Chapter 5. The Evolution Revolution
135 -
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Chapter 6. The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
176 -
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Chapter 7. The Galapagos Islands of Finance
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Chapter 8. Adaptive Markets in Action
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Chapter 9. Fear, Greed, and Financial Crisis
296 -
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Chapter 10. Finance Behaving Badly
330 -
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Chapter 11. Fixing Finance
365 -
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Chapter 12. To Boldly Go Where No Financier Has Gone Before
395 -
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Afterword
421 -
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Notes
427 -
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References
445 -
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Acknowledgments
469 -
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Index
475