Public and Private Debt: The Historical Record (1870–2010)
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Moritz Schularick
Abstract
Economists routinely emphasize the risks of excessive public borrowing, but tend to have a more benign view of private sector debt. In this study, I draw on recent comparative studies of the macroeconomic history of advanced economies since 1870. I synthesize four historical facts and argue that a more balanced view of public and private borrowing is warranted. First, while both public and private debts have increased markedly, private, not public debts have climbed to historically unprecedented levels. Second, outside war times, financial crises have typically originated in the private sector, yet the costs have increasingly been socialized. Third, the historical record shows that modern democracies have been relatively successful in managing their financial affairs, evidenced by a systematically positive response of primary balances to high debt ratios. Fourth, I demonstrate that private and public debt cycles have been tightly linked since the 1970s.
© 2019 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Editorial
- Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions
- Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union
- Public Debt and Price Stability
- Public Debt in Post-1850 German Economic Thought vis-à-vis the Pre-1850 British Classical School
- Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy: Ten Lessons from Theory and Evidence
- Balanced Budget Requirements and Debt Brakes Feasibility and Enforcement
- On the Political Economy of Public Deficits and Debt
- Democracy, Elections and Government Budget Deficits
- The Politics of Public Debt: Neoliberalism, Capitalist Development and the Restructuring of the State
- It Is Private, Not Public Finances that Are Out of Whack
- Public and Private Debt: The Historical Record (1870–2010)
- What Is the Value of Sovereign Ratings?
Articles in the same Issue
- Editorial
- Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions
- Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union
- Public Debt and Price Stability
- Public Debt in Post-1850 German Economic Thought vis-à-vis the Pre-1850 British Classical School
- Budget Rules and Fiscal Policy: Ten Lessons from Theory and Evidence
- Balanced Budget Requirements and Debt Brakes Feasibility and Enforcement
- On the Political Economy of Public Deficits and Debt
- Democracy, Elections and Government Budget Deficits
- The Politics of Public Debt: Neoliberalism, Capitalist Development and the Restructuring of the State
- It Is Private, Not Public Finances that Are Out of Whack
- Public and Private Debt: The Historical Record (1870–2010)
- What Is the Value of Sovereign Ratings?
