Contents

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter a
2. Contents vii
3. Preface xiii
4. Introduction 1
5. I POLICY ANALYSIS
6. 1 Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude 11
7. 2 Predicting Policy Outcomes 47
8. 3 Predicting Behavior 85
9. II POLICY DECISIONS
10. 4 Planning with Partial Knowledge 115
11. 5 Diversified Treatment Choice 139
12. 6 Policy Analysis and Decisions 173
13. Appendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox 177
14. Appendix B: The Minimax- Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation 179
15. Appendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments 181
16. References 183
17. Index 193