Band 8, Heft 2

This paper analyzes the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions, and 14 major economies during the period 1989-2004. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! Moreover, differences in per capita output levels are explained by differences in per capita input, rather than variations in productivity. The contributions of IT investment have increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia.

Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a ‘general-purpose technology’ suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that US industry results are consistent with general-purpose technology (GPT) stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-based - located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s.

In this paper we analyse labour productivity growth in the United States, four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and United Kingdom), Australia and Canada between 1987 and 2003 from an industry perspective. Rather than analysing broad industry groups, we compare the pattern of growth in all industries through Harberger diagrams. We introduce new summary measures, which indicate the pervasiveness of growth patterns. These indicators show that investment in both information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT capital is fairly balanced or ‘yeasty’, driven by overall macro-economic conditions. However, growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is much more localized or ‘mushroom-like’. In particular we find a clear distinction between countries in continental Europe, in which TFP is decelerating after 1995 and becoming more localized, and Anglo-Saxon countries in which TFP growth is accelerating and becoming more broad-based, especially after 2000. The increased breadth of Anglo-Saxon TFP growth is consistent with delayed effects of intangible investments that are complementary to ICT investments.

This paper introduces new estimates of recent productivity developments in the United States, using an appropriate theoretical framework for aggregating industry multi-factor productivity (MFP) to sectors and the total economy. Our work sheds light on the sources of the continued strong performance of US productivity since 2000.We find that the major sectoral players in the late 1990s pickup were not contributors to the more recent surge in productivity. Rather, striking gains in MFP in the finance and business service sector, a resurgence in MFP growth in the industrial sector, and an end to drops elsewhere more than account for the aggregate acceleration in productivity in recent years. Further, some evidence is found for a link between IT intensity and the recent productivity acceleration.

While the United States experienced two successive labor productivity surges in 1995 and 2000, Germany’s productivity declined dramatically during the same period. We examine the sources of Germany’s productivity demise using the ifo industry growth accounting database that provides detailed industry-level investment information. While much attention has focused on the reduction in German labor hours, our data show that information and communication technology (ICT) investment in Germany was deeply lacking in the mid-1990s as compared with the United States. The transition to the new economy mitigated the German productivity slowdown, but did not reverse it. After 2000, we find that a recovery in Non-ICT investment was offset by a widespread collapse in German total factor productivity. Over half of the German industries (accounting for almost 50 per cent of German output) experienced negative total factor productivity growth. This second major difference between the United States and German industry performance explains Germany’s secular departure from the technological frontier.

The paper uses a method by Christensen et al. to construct crosscountry comparisons of the levels of capital input, capital and labour productivity and multi-factor productivity. These results are used to decompose international differences in gross domestic product per capita into differences in labour utilization, information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT capital intensity and multi-factor productivity for seven Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We provide Monte Carlo estimates to examine the effects of measurement errors in the base data, and these simulations showed that boundaries for the resulting indicators can be important.

US productivity growth experienced continued productivity growth after 2000 even as investment, particularly in information technology (IT), slowed. This paper uses industry-level data to examine the link between average labor productivity (ALP) growth and IT in the post-2000 period. We use difference-indifference and cross-sectional regressions to show that the link between ALP growth and IT-intensity is weaker after 2000 than before. These results are robust to alternative measures of IT-intensity such as the IT share of capital services, the level of IT capital depth, and the share of IT capital services in total output. We conclude that the post-2000 productivity gains in the United States do not appear to have been driven directly by IT.

In this paper, we make a comparison of industry output, inputs and productivity growth and levels between seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States). Our industry-level growth accounts make use of input data on labour quantity (hours) and composition (schooling levels), and distinguish between six different types of capital assets (including three information and communication technology (ICT) assets). The comparisons of levels rely on industry-specific purchasing power parities (PPPs) for output and inputs, within a consistent input-output framework for the year 1997. Our results show that differences in productivity growth and levels can be mainly traced to market services, not to goods-producing industries. Part of the strong productivity growth in market services in Anglo-Saxon countries, such as in Australia and Canada, may be related to relatively low productivity levels compared with the United States. In contrast, services productivity levels in continental European countries were on par with the United States in 1997, but growth in Europe was much weaker since then. In terms of factor input use, the United States is very different from all other countries, mostly because of the more intensive use of ICT capital in the United States.