Band 10, Heft 3

Recent US microeconomic analysis indicates that good industrial relations might improve firm performance. Of late, it has also been claimed that the benefits of industrial relations quality - proxied inversely by a strikes variable - could also extend to the macroeconomy. Using cross-country data, we find that, independent of other labor market institutions, a lower strike volume is associated with lower unemployment. Although there is a separate line of causation running from unemployment to strikes, our analysis suggests that this is not dominant. That said, support for the notion that macro performance owes something to good industrial relations is, however, weakened once we formally control for strike endogeneity.

While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types.

Starting in January 2003, Germany implemented the first two so-called Hartz reforms, followed by the third and fourth packages of Hartz reforms in January 2004 and January 2005, respectively. The aim of these reforms was to accelerate labor market flows and reduce unemployment duration.Without attempting to evaluate the specific components of these Hartz reforms, this paper provides a first attempt to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the first two reform waves, Hartz I/II and III, in speeding up the matching process between unemployed and vacant jobs. The analysis is conceptually rooted in the flow-based view underlying the reforms, estimating the structural features of the matching process. The results indicate that the reforms indeed had an impact in making the labor market more dynamic and accelerating the matching process.

This paper uses a static and dynamic gravity model of trade to investigate the link between German development aid and exports from Germany to the recipient countries. The findings indicate that, in the long run, German aid is associated with an increase in exports of goods that is larger than the aid flow, with a point estimate of 140% of the aid given. In addition, the evolution of the estimated coefficients over time shows an effect that is consistently positive but that oscillates over time. Interestingly, after a decrease in the 1990s, the estimated coefficients of the effect of aid on trade show a steady increase in the period between 2001 and 2005. The paper distinguishes among recipient countries and finds that the return on aid measured by German exports is higher for aid to countries considered ‘strategic aid recipients’ by the German government.We also find some evidence that aid given by other EU members reduces German exports.

Contrary to intuition, first digits of randomly selected data are not uniformly distributed but follow a logarithmically declining pattern, known as Benford’s law. This law is increasingly used as a ‘doping check’ for detecting fraudulent data in business and administration. Benford’s law also applies to regression coefficients and standard errors in empirical economics. This article reviews Benford’s law and examines its potential as an indicator of fraud in economic research. Evidence from a sample of recently published articles shows that a surprisingly large proportion of first digits, but not of second digits, contradicts Benford’s law.

The attempts by Schulze and colleagues and Ritzberger to develop a joint ranking of journals for economics and business research are critically evaluated. Their lists suggest that the quality of top business journals is substantially lower than that of many economics journals. If, however, the authors of these lists do not want to claim a general superiority of one discipline (economics) over another one (business), they should give a clear indication that these lists are only applicable for economists. This warning appears to be necessary because Fabel and colleagues derive a ranking of universities and departments with respect to research productivity in business from the business research discriminating list RbR_IMP by Schulze and colleagues. While Diamantopoulos and Wagner already show a lack of face validity of these results, this article explains that the reason for this lies not only in the downgrading and also biased weighting of the business journals across subfields, but even more importantly, in a remarkable incompleteness of the database.