Consideration of ageing within probabilistic safety assessment models and results
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M. Čepin
Abstract
Ageing is a process, where the properties of systems and processes may degrade through the time and age. The objective of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of introduction of ageing directly into the probabilistic safety assessment. Theoretical models of ageing and examples of their application are investigated, which show, how the current models can be upgraded in sense to directly include the effects of ageing into the models of probabilistic safety assessment. This paper shows that consideration of ageing is theoretically a straightforward issue, which can be dealt with in several ways, which are demonstrated in the paper. The most important problem is the lack of data about the effects of ageing, which would suit to the detailed models of ageing. The results, which are obtained, do not show significantly different results compared to the initial models without direct consideration of ageing. The majority of risk measures change slightly or notably, but no major break through has been found. Contribution of ageing may be smaller then contribution of changes due to other parameters.
Kurzfassung
Alterung ist ein Prozess, bei dem die Eigenschaften der Systeme und Prozesse sich im Laufe der Zeit verschlechtern. Ziel dieses Papiers ist die Analyse der Möglichkeiten, Alterung direkt in probabilistischen Sicherheitsanalysen (PSA) zu berücksichtigen. Theoretische Alterungsmodelle und Beispiele ihrer Anwendung werden dahingehend untersucht, wie die gegenwärtigen Modelle erweitert werden können, um direkt die Alterungseffekte in die PSA-Modelle einzufügen. Das Papier zeigt, dass die Betrachtung der Alterung auf verschiedene Weise behandelt werden kann, wie hier näher ausgeführt wird. Das größte Problem ist aber die ungenügende Datenbasis über Alterungseffekte, die sich für eine detaillierte Modellierung der Alterung eignet. Die erzielten Ergebnisse zeigen keine signi-fikant unterschiedlichen Ergebnisse im Vergleich mit dem ursprünglichen Modell ohne direkte Betrachtung der Alterung. Die Mehrzahl der Risikomaße ändern sich wenig oder auch deutlich, aber ein großer Durchbruch wurde nicht gefunden. Eventuell sind die Beiträge aufgrund der Alterung kleiner als die Beiträge aufgrund von Änderungen anderer Parameter.
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© 2009, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
Articles in the same Issue
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Probabilistic Safety Assessment – a systematic and comprehensive method to evaluate risk
- The new IAEA safety standards on probabilistic safety assessment
- The Open PSA Initiative for next generation probabilistic safety assessment
- Overview on the different applications of probabilistic safety assessment for nuclear power plants
- Precursor analyses for German nuclear power plants
- Integral analysis of low power and shutdown operation: insights and outcome
- Methodology for Fire PSA during design process
- Analysis of external flooding and tsunamis for nuclear power plants at tidal rivers
- Consideration of ageing within probabilistic safety assessment models and results
- PSA Level 2 – An optimized methodology
- Experience with quantitative safety targets on international level
Articles in the same Issue
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Probabilistic Safety Assessment – a systematic and comprehensive method to evaluate risk
- The new IAEA safety standards on probabilistic safety assessment
- The Open PSA Initiative for next generation probabilistic safety assessment
- Overview on the different applications of probabilistic safety assessment for nuclear power plants
- Precursor analyses for German nuclear power plants
- Integral analysis of low power and shutdown operation: insights and outcome
- Methodology for Fire PSA during design process
- Analysis of external flooding and tsunamis for nuclear power plants at tidal rivers
- Consideration of ageing within probabilistic safety assessment models and results
- PSA Level 2 – An optimized methodology
- Experience with quantitative safety targets on international level
