The Heuristic Use of Game Theory: Insights for Conflict Resolution

This article illustrates the heuristic use of game theory by applying it to the analysis of conflict resolution. To this end, we will proceed in three stages. First, we will define a generic bargaining game, which confronts two states that share a history of protracted conflict. Second, we will then introduce a gradual and controlled change in the preferences of the two states for the outcomes that are generated by the bargaining game. Third, for the game series that will be produced, we will apply alternative game-theoretic solution concepts and examine the expected implications of different information conditions. That is, we will establish by means of the theory what the states are expected to do in response to the induced change in their own preferences, in those of the opponent—and in their perception of each other. By modifying these parameters, we will be able to analyze the obstacles that are expected to arise in the peacemaking process and the conditions that are required to attain and stabilize a negotiated settlement.