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Rating/Ranking Systems, Post-Season Bowl Games, and "The Spread"
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John A. Trono
Published/Copyright:
July 19, 2010
A previous article (Trono, 2005) documented how two different rating systems "outperformed" the Las Vegas betting line on NCAA bowl games when they individually disagreed with the line on which team should be favored. This article addresses several shortcomings in one of the two aforementioned systems, extends the analysis in a few new directions for both systems, adds the five most recent years of bowl games to this investigation, and includes one more recently published ranking system in this extensive study that goes back to 1983.
Published Online: 2010-7-19
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Article
- Home Advantage in Three National Netball Competitions: Australia (1997-2007), New Zealand (1998-2007) and England (2005/06-2008/09)
- Relative Importance of Performance Factors in Winning NBA Games in Regular Season versus Playoffs
- An Examination of Judging Consistency in a Combat Sport
- An Improved LRMC Method for NCAA Basketball Prediction
- Bayesian Modeling of Footrace Finishing Times
- Rating/Ranking Systems, Post-Season Bowl Games, and "The Spread"
- A New Approach in the Evaluation of Team Chess Championships Rankings
- A Point-Mass Mixture Random Effects Model for Pitching Metrics
- Tail Modeling, Track and Field Records, and Bolt's Effect
- AccuV College Football Ranking Model
- Validation of Match Notation (A Coding System) in Tennis
- Simply Better: Using Regression Models to Estimate Major League Batting Averages
- Scoring Variables and Judge Bias in United States Dressage Competitions
- The "Bradman Class": An Exploration of Some Issues in the Evaluation of Batsmen for Test Matches, 1877-2006
