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A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial
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Henrik Lando
Published/Copyright:
October 27, 2006
This article derives key variables in the analysis of standards of proof in criminal law from basic conditional probabilities. The variables derived are the probability of correct and wrongful conviction, the expected sanction, and society's incarceration costs, while the basic conditional probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i. The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating.
Published Online: 2006-10-27
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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- On Negligence Rules and Self-Selection
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- A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial
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Articles in the same Issue
- Article
- On Negligence Rules and Self-Selection
- Nuisance Suits and Contingent Attorney Fees
- A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial
- On the Desirability of Appellate Courts
- Another Consideration in Minority Vote Dilution Remedies: Rent-Seeking
