Presidential Election Forecasts
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David A Walker
This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic and financial market variables with forecasts by Fair and the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0 percent, the Fair forecast of 51.9 percent, and the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5 percent were close to the actual vote share of 53.2 percent for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast of 59.4 in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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- An Exceptional Election: Performance, Values, and Crisis in the 2008 Presidential Election
- The Magnitude of the 2008 Democratic Victory: By the Numbers
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- Whither the Roberts Court?
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Articles in the same Issue
- Introduction
- Election Issue and Blog Discussion
- Article
- Race and the Moral Character of the Modern American Experience
- Interest Groups in the 2008 Presidential Election: The Barking Dog That Didn't Bite
- The Nomination and the Election: Clearing Away Underbrush
- The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election
- Foreign Affairs and the 2008 Election
- Presidential Election Forecasts
- An Exceptional Election: Performance, Values, and Crisis in the 2008 Presidential Election
- The Magnitude of the 2008 Democratic Victory: By the Numbers
- LBJ's Revenge: The 2008 Election and the Rise of the Great Society Coalition
- Whither the Roberts Court?
- Review
- Review of America's Three Regimes: A New Political History
- Review of Panorama of a Presidency: How George W. Bush Acquired and Spent His Political Capital
