Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections
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Alan Abramowitz
This article describes a model for forecasting the outcomes of congressional elections based on national political conditions and candidate behavior. Pre-election Gallup Poll data on the generic vote and presidential approval are used to measure national political conditions and data on open seats and challenger quality are used to measure the behavior of congressional candidates. The model is tested with data on U.S. House elections between 1946 and 2004. A simpler model based only on national political conditions is tested with data on U.S. Senate elections from the same period. The results indicate that Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in November. Democratic gains are also likely in the Senate but it will be difficult for Democrats to pick up the six seats that they need to take control of the upper chamber because only 15 of the 33 seats up for election in 2006 are currently held by Republicans.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Article
- Black Politics, the GOP Southern Strategy, and the Reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act
- Forecasting the 2006 National Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives
- Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections
- The 2.4% Solution: What Makes a Mandate?
- The Validity of the 2004 "Moral Values" Question
- Feast or Famine at the Federal Luau? Understanding Net Federal Spending under Bush
- Signing Statements: What to Do?
- The Legal Significance of Presidential Signing Statements
- Review
- Review of The End of Southern Exceptionalism: Class, Race, and Partisan Change in the Postwar South
- Race for the Key to Explaining Partisan Realignment in the American South: Thoughts on Byron E. Shafer and Richard Johnston, The End of Southern Exceptionalism
Articles in the same Issue
- Article
- Black Politics, the GOP Southern Strategy, and the Reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act
- Forecasting the 2006 National Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives
- Using the Generic Vote to Forecast the 2006 House and Senate Elections
- The 2.4% Solution: What Makes a Mandate?
- The Validity of the 2004 "Moral Values" Question
- Feast or Famine at the Federal Luau? Understanding Net Federal Spending under Bush
- Signing Statements: What to Do?
- The Legal Significance of Presidential Signing Statements
- Review
- Review of The End of Southern Exceptionalism: Class, Race, and Partisan Change in the Postwar South
- Race for the Key to Explaining Partisan Realignment in the American South: Thoughts on Byron E. Shafer and Richard Johnston, The End of Southern Exceptionalism
