Quantifying the Economic Cost of the Qatar Blockade Using Synthetic Control
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Mehdi Shiva
Abstract
This study evaluates the economic impact of the 2017 Qatar blockade using synthetic control methods. The analysis shows that Qatar’s GDP in 2022 was approximately 24 % lower than without the blockade, equating to a loss of 82 billion international dollars in 2017 constant prices. Despite Qatar’s proactive strategies, including trade diversification and infrastructure investment, the economic cost remains substantial. Short-term financial commitments and resource reallocation to mitigate the blockade’s effects likely strained public finances and slowed growth. The study underscores the economic toll of the blockade and suggests further research into the long-term effects of Qatar’s policy responses.
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Funding: No funding was received for this study.
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Conflict of interest: No conflict of interest to report.
Annex
Country weights in Synthetic Qatar.
| Country | Weight | Country | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 0.139 | Equatorial Guinea | 0.13 |
| Bhutan | 0.654 | Malta | 0.065 |
| China | 0.012 |
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Countries included in the pool but receiving a weight of zero include Algeria, Armenia, Botswana, Brunei, Cyprus, Ecuador, Gabon, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Macao, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Oman, Panama, Singapore, Switzerland.
GDP gap across post-blockade period (constant 2017 international dollars, Billions).
| Year | Qatar | Synthetic Qatar | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 250.0 | 275.1 | −25.1 |
| 2018 | 253.0 | 292.4 | −39.4 |
| 2019 | 254.8 | 308.2 | −53.4 |
| 2020 | 245.7 | 306.9 | −61.2 |
| 2021 | 249.7 | 332.8 | −83.1 |
| 2022 | 260.2 | 341.9 | −81.7 |
Ratio between the post- and pre-intervention RMSPE.
| Country | Ratio | Country | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 3.772 | Kuwait | 1.014 |
| Armenia | 1.355 | Luxembourg | 1.375 |
| Azerbaijan | 1.492 | Macao | 3.079 |
| Bhutan | 1.777 | Malaysia | 2.181 |
| Botswana | 1.400 | Malta | 1.024 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 3.138 | Morocco | 2.292 |
| China | 2.533 | Norway | 0.547 |
| Cyprus | 1.786 | Oman | 0.406 |
| Ecuador | 0.544 | Panama | 1.165 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 1.500 | Qatar | 5.076 |
| Gabon | 1.436 | Singapore | 3.276 |
| Hong Kong | 4.818 | Switzerland | 1.461 |
| Jordan | 1.436 |
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Corporate Governance, Bank Stability and Risk-Taking: Differences Between Conventional and Islamic Banks
- How Does Financial Inclusion Affect Bank Stability? Evidence from the Banking Sector in Ethiopia
- Time-Varying Causality Impact of Global Economic Conditions Index on Remittances in Lebanon
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- Policy Note
- Quantifying the Economic Cost of the Qatar Blockade Using Synthetic Control
