An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration
-
Domenico Suppa
,
Salvatore D’Acunto
Abstract
Are differences in per capita income between countries really the main cause of migratory flows? Mainstream economic thinking would give an affirmative answer. In the light of the heterodox literature, in this article, the authors critically evaluate this view and then they conduct an empirical test (applying panel and dynamic panel models) on data relating to the stocks of migrants on 232 countries from 1990 to 2019, trying to explain migration trends based on social-political, cultural, demographic and economic variables (obtained by integrating 4 official datasets). The results reveal a non-unique influence of differences in per capita income on migratory flows: up to a certain threshold (around $27,000) migration appears to be directly related to per capita GDP of migrants’ country of origin. Furthermore, the pre-existing stock of migrants in the country of destination takes on an important role, in line with the findings of the literature on migratory chains. These empirical findings could contribute to improve migration policies.
Tests for Panel (linear) regressions in Table 8.
| Test | H0 | Stat | DF0 | DF1 | DF2 | p-Value | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | |||||||
|
|
|||||||
| Hausman Test | Random model is consistent | 34.91 | 11 | 0.0003 | Rejected | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – (Breusch-Pagan) | No individual effects | 45728.34 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected | ||
| F test for individual effects | No individual effects | 45.125 | 6843 | 13279 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – time effects (Breusch-Pagan) | No time effects | 1.366 | 1 | 0.242 | Accepted | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – two-ways effects (Gourieroux, Holly, and Monfort 1982) | No time and individual effects | 4728.34 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | Rejected |
|
|
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| North America | |||||||
|
|
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| Hausman Test | Random model is consistent | 5.627 | 11 | 0.897 | Accepted | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – (Breusch-Pagan) | No individual effects | 1778.657 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected | ||
| F test for individual effects | No individual effects | 47.915 | 231 | 432 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – time effects (Breusch-Pagan) | No time effects | 2.357 | 1 | 0.125 | Accepted | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – two-ways effects (Gourieroux, Holly, and Monfort 1982) | No time and individual effects | 1778.657 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | Rejected |
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| Europe | |||||||
|
|
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| Hausman Test | Random model is consistent | 80.282 | 11 | 0.000 | Rejected | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – (Breusch-Pagan) | No individual effects | 9003.558 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected | ||
| F test for individual effects | No individual effects | 172.164 | 3243 | 5965 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – time effects (Breusch-Pagan) | No time effects | 1.683 | 1 | 0.195 | Accepted | ||
| Lagrange Multiplier Test – two-ways effects (Gourieroux, Holly, and Monfort 1982) | No time and individual effects | 9003.558 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | Rejected |
Further panel data testing (linear models in Table 8).
| Test | Null Hypothesis | Statistic | DF | p-Value | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | |||||
|
|
|||||
| Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence in panels | Migrants-Per capita Gdp No cross-sectional dependence |
z = 3084.3 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Breusch-Godfrey/Wooldridge test for serial correlation in panel models | No serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors | chisq = 1284.9 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Migrants | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −87.985 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Per capita Gdp | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −28.008 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
| North America | |||||
|
|
|||||
| Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence in panels | Migrants-Per capita Gdp No cross-sectional dependence |
z = 5.3249 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Breusch-Godfrey/Wooldridge test for serial correlation in panel models | No serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors | Chisq = 20.364 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Migrants | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −17.708 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Per capita Gdp | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −12.034 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
|
|
|||||
| Europe | |||||
|
|
|||||
| Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence in panels | Migrants-Per capita Gdp No cross-sectional dependence |
z = 1074.6 | 0.000 | Rejected | |
| Breusch-Godfrey/Wooldridge test for serial correlation in panel models | No serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors | chisq = 156.61 | 1 | 0.000 | Rejected |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Migrants | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −55.108 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: Per capita Gdp | Not stationary | Dickey-Fuller = −20.139 Lag order = 2 |
<0.01 | Rejected | |
Tests results for the GMM panel model (4, Table 8).
| World (4) Unbalanced Panel: n = 11,472, T = 1–7, N = 76,431 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Test | Statistic | p-Value |
| Sargan test: chisq (df 9) | 11.08165 | 0.27015 |
| Autocorrelation test (lag 1) | −2.040066 | 0.041344 |
| Autocorrelation test (lag 2) | 1.236749 | 0.21618 |
| Wald test for coefficients: chisq (df 12) | 214.3619 | 0.0000 |
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- The European Union and Achieving Peace in Ukraine
- Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective
- Investigating Time-Varying Causality Between Military Spending and Macroeconomic Indicators in the United States
- An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- The European Union and Achieving Peace in Ukraine
- Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective
- Investigating Time-Varying Causality Between Military Spending and Macroeconomic Indicators in the United States
- An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration
- Determinants of Military Spending in Africa: Do Institutions Matter?
