Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration
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Emmanouil M. L. Economou
and
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
Abstract
This paper sets out to explore the nexus between Russia and Turkey regarding their geopolitical uncertainty measures (GPR) during the Putin Administration era in Russia. The innovative Caldara and Iacoviello indices and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology are adopted. This study sheds light on the series of geopolitical events that have taken place in Russia and Turkey in recent decades. Empirical outcomes reveal that Turkish geopolitical uncertainty is a weak influencer that increases Russian GPR in the short-term while decreasing it in the medium-term. The reverse effect does not hold. The nexus between geopolitical risk in Turkey and Russia is found to be unstable. Uncertainty in Turkey constitutes both a negative and a positive determinant of geopolitical stability in Russia, depending on the time horizon of the impact. Russia could take advantage of Turkish positive effects in the medium-run. This could be alarming for investors but could also prove beneficial as they should not invest in Russian assets when the country’s geopolitical risk is elevated due to Turkey’s geopolitical instability. Additionally, it is documented that energy financial markets in Russia are not influential on geopolitical uncertainty.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to express their many thanks to the Editor and to the reviewers for their comments which led to the significant improvement of this paper.
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Data availability statement: All data employed are available upon request.
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Declaration of conflicting interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicting interests.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- Fifth Walter Isard Annual Award for the Best Article in Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy
- Letters and Proceedings
- The Effect of the Spanish Civil War on City Shares
- Research Articles
- How Much are Iranian Men Willing to Pay for Exemption from Military Service?
- Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration
- Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- Fifth Walter Isard Annual Award for the Best Article in Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy
- Letters and Proceedings
- The Effect of the Spanish Civil War on City Shares
- Research Articles
- How Much are Iranian Men Willing to Pay for Exemption from Military Service?
- Spillovers Between Russia’s and Turkey’s Geopolitical Risk During the 2000–2021 Putin Administration
- Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis
