Abstract
It is commonly assumed that perceived threats from a rival state will make individuals more likely to “rally-round-the-flag” and support military action. Previous studies have looked at how information about threats affects public support for military action. To date, however, there has been less attention to how information about the costs of conflict affects support for military action in response to threats. In this article, we present a survey experiment designed to evaluate how information about the likely military and economic costs of conflict influences support for military action. We provide Japanese respondents with information about relations with China, and probe how support for military action in the context of the ongoing territorial dispute changes with varying information on the military costs of conflict and its economic consequences. We find that information about trade ties and military capacity exerts a pacifying effect and strengthens opposition to military action. Consistent with our proposed mechanism, we show that greater awareness of military costs is associated with stronger opposition to military action. Our results indicate that even under the existence of external threats, greater awareness of the costs of conflict affects attitudes to military action and can increase support for peaceful solutions to territorial rivalries.
Acknowledgement
The authors are listed in alphabetical order, equal authorship implied. We are grateful for comments from Julia Bader, Brian Burgoon, Ursula Daxecker, Songyin Fang, Katjana Gattermann, Shoko Kohama, Theresa Kuhn, Michaela Mattes, Nobuhiro Mifune, Jason Reifler, Paul Post, Spencer Piston, Andrea Ruggeri, Joep Schaper, and participants at 2017 annual meeting of the International Studies Association in Baltimore, MD, USA and the ISA International Conference in Hong Kong as well as workshops at the University of Amsterdam, Kobe University, and Yale University for comments. This project was funded by research grants from the Asahi Glass Foundation and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The human subject protocol of the research was evaluated by Kobe University School of Law IRB and conducted following IRB approval.
Appendix
Balance test.
Defense | Trade | Defense | Trade | F-test | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(text) | (text) | (figure) | (figure) | (p-value) | |
Age | 45.63 | 45.17 | 44.57 | 45.27 | 0.752 |
Gender | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.467 |
College Education | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.198 |
Income | 2.96 | 3.07 | 2.88 | 3.00 | 0.399 |
Observation | 355 | 333 | 396 | 376 |
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Articles in the same Issue
- Research Articles
- Autocratic Survival Strategies: Does Oil Make a Difference?
- Spurred by Threats or Afraid of War? A Survey Experiment on Costs of Conflict in Support for Military Action
- Integrating Realist and Neoliberal Theories of War
- A WTO Ruling Matters: Citizens’ Support for the Government’s Compliance with Trade Agreements
- Convergence of Defence Burdens in Asia-Pacific Economies: A Residual Augmented Least Squares Approach
Articles in the same Issue
- Research Articles
- Autocratic Survival Strategies: Does Oil Make a Difference?
- Spurred by Threats or Afraid of War? A Survey Experiment on Costs of Conflict in Support for Military Action
- Integrating Realist and Neoliberal Theories of War
- A WTO Ruling Matters: Citizens’ Support for the Government’s Compliance with Trade Agreements
- Convergence of Defence Burdens in Asia-Pacific Economies: A Residual Augmented Least Squares Approach