The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments

László Csató

doi:10.1515/jqas-2022-0061

Article

The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments

László Csató

Published/Copyright: December 13, 2022

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From the journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Volume 18 Issue 4

Abstract

The paper analyses how draw constraints influence the outcome of a knockout tournament. The research question is inspired by European club football competitions, where the organiser generally imposes an association constraint in the first round of the knockout phase: teams from the same country cannot be drawn against each other. Its effects are explored in both theoretical and simulation models. An association constraint in the first round(s) is found to increase the likelihood of same nation matchups to approximately the same extent in each subsequent round. If the favourite teams are concentrated in some associations, they will have a higher probability to win the tournament under this policy but the increase is less than linear if it is used in more rounds. Our results might explain the recent introduction of the association constraint for both the knockout round play-offs with 16 teams and the Round of 16 in the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League.

Keywords: draw procedure; knockout tournament; OR in sports; simulation; UEFA Europe League

Corresponding author: László Csató, Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI) and Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, Hungary, E-mail: laszlo.csato@sztaki.hu

Author contributions: All the authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this submitted manuscript and approved submission.
Research funding: None declared.
Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding this article.

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Received: 2022-09-02

Accepted: 2022-11-21

Published Online: 2022-12-13

Published in Print: 2022-12-16

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https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0061

Keywords for this article

draw procedure; knockout tournament; OR in sports; simulation; UEFA Europe League