Abstract
This paper investigates the fouling time distribution of players in the National Basketball Association. A Bayesian analysis is presented based on the assumption that fouling time distributions follow a gamma distribution. Various insights are obtained including the observation that players accumulate fouls at a rate that increases with the current number of fouls. We demonstrate possible ways to incorporate the fouling time distributions to provide decision support to coaches in the management of playing time.
Acknowledgment
The authors have been partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for valuable comments that improved the paper.
Author contribution: All the authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this submitted manuscript and approved submission.
Research funding: The authors have been partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding this article.
References
Beaudoin, D., and T. B. Swartz. 2010. “Strategies for Pulling the Goalie in Hockey.” The American Statistican 64: 197–204, https://doi.org/10.1198/tast.2010.09147.Search in Google Scholar
Brier, G.W. 1950. “Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.” Monthly Weather Review 78: 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:vofeit>2.0.co;2.10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2Search in Google Scholar
D’Agostino, R. B., and M. A. Stephens. 1986. Goodness-of-Fit Techniques. New York: Marcel Dekker.Search in Google Scholar
Davis, N., and M. Lopez. 2015. “NHL Coaches are Pulling Goalies Earlier Than Ever.” FiveThirtyEight. Also available at. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nhl-coaches-are-pulling-goalies-earlier-than-ever/ (accessed September 20, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Evans, K., and U. Saini. 2019. “Eight Thirty Four.” Also available at. https://eightthirtyfour.com/data (accessed November 11, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Evans, K..2017a. “NBA Fouls-I Love DeMarcus Cousins.” Also available at. https://causalkathy.com/2017/01/31/i-love-demarcus-cousins/ (accessed September 20, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Evans, K. 2017b. “NBA Fouls-Survival Analysis.” Also available at. https://causalkathy.com/2017/02/21/nba-fouls-survival-analysis/ (accessed November 3, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Falk, B. 2018. “The Trouble with Foul Trouble.” Cleaning The Glass. Also available at. https://cleaningtheglass.com/the-trouble-with-foul-trouble/ (accessed September 22, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Gerds, T., and M. Schumacher. 2006. “Consistent Estimation of the Expected Brier Score in General Survival Models with Right-Censored Event Times.” Biometrical Journal 48 (6): 1029–40, https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.200610301.Search in Google Scholar
Harter, H. L., and A. H. Moore. 1965. “Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Gamma and Weibull Populations from Complete and Censored Samples.” Technometrics 7: 639–43, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1965.10490304.Search in Google Scholar
Kalbfleisch, J. D., and R. L. Prentice. 2002. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, 2nd ed. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.10.1002/9781118032985Search in Google Scholar
Klobuchar, A. 2018. “Basketball Foul Analysis: A Look at the Inefficiency in Current NBA Substitution-After-Fouls Behavior.” Aidan’s Musings. Also available at. http://aidanklobuchar.com/home/data-based-writings/fouls/ (accessed September 22, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Lewis, M. 2013. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: WW Norton.Search in Google Scholar
Maymin, P., A. Maymin, and E. Shen. 2012. “How Much Trouble Is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA.” International Journa of Sport Finance 7: 324–39.10.2139/ssrn.1736633Search in Google Scholar
Mogensen, U. B., H. Ishwaran, and T. A. Gerds. 2012. “Evaluating Random Forests for Survival Analysis Using Prediction Error Curves.” Journal of Statistical Software 50 (11): 1–23, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v050.i11.Search in Google Scholar
Rochford, A. 2017. “NBA Foul Calls and Bayesian Item Response Theory.” Also available at. https://austinrochford.com/posts/2017-04-04-nba-irt.html (accessed September 22, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Redelmeier, D. A., D. A. Bloch, and D. H. Hickam. 1991. “Assessing Predictive Accuracy: How to Compare Brier Scores.” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 44 (11): 1141–6, https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-4356(91)90146-z.Search in Google Scholar
Yam, D., and M. Lopez. 2018. “Quantifying the Causal Effects of Conservative Fourth Down Decision Making in the National Football League.” Also available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3114242.10.2139/ssrn.3114242Search in Google Scholar
© 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Measuring spatial allocative efficiency in basketball
- Restoring the real world records in Men’s swimming without high-tech swimsuits
- Foul accumulation in the NBA
- Evaluating the effectiveness of different network flow motifs in association football
- A Bayesian adjusted plus-minus analysis for the esport Dota 2
- Corrigendum
- Corrigendum to: Offensive or defensive play in soccer: a game-theoretical approach
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Research Articles
- Measuring spatial allocative efficiency in basketball
- Restoring the real world records in Men’s swimming without high-tech swimsuits
- Foul accumulation in the NBA
- Evaluating the effectiveness of different network flow motifs in association football
- A Bayesian adjusted plus-minus analysis for the esport Dota 2
- Corrigendum
- Corrigendum to: Offensive or defensive play in soccer: a game-theoretical approach