Home A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs

  • Sergey Kabanikhin , Olga Krivorotko and Victoriya Kashtanova EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: September 6, 2017

Abstract

A new combined numerical algorithm for solving inverse problems of epidemiology is described in this paper. The combined algorithm consists of optimization and iterative methods, and determines the parameters specific to a particular population by using the statistical information for a few previous years. The coefficients of the epidemiology model describe particular qualities of the population and the development of the disease. The inverse problem of parameter identification in a mathematical model is reduced to the problem of minimizing an objective function characterizing the square deviation of the statistical data from the experimental data. The combination of statistical and optimization algorithms demonstrates the identification of parameters with an appropriate relative accuracy of 30Ṫhe results can be used by public health organizations to predict the infectious disease epidemic in a given region by comparing the data of simulation with historical data.

MSC 2010: 65L09

Funding statement: This work is supported by the Scholarship of the President of Russian Federation MK-1214.2017.1 “Investigation and development of numerical algorithms of direct and inverse problems in immunology and epidemiology” and the Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation (4.1.3 The Joint Laboratories of NSU-NSC SB RAS).

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Prof. Alexey Romanyukha (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) for the problem statement and fruitful discussions. We would like to thank A. Borisov and S. Belilovsky (Moscow Scientific and Clinical Center for Tuberculosis Control, Moscow Health Department, Moscow) for statistical data preparation of Russian Federation.

References

[1] K. Avilov and A. Romanyukha, Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis propagation and patient detection, Autom. Remote Control 68 (2007), no. 9, 1604–1617. 10.1134/S0005117907090159Search in Google Scholar

[2] S. Blower, A. Mclean, T. Porco, P. Small, P. Hopewell, M. Sanchez and A. Moss, The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics, Nature Med. 1 (1995), no. 8, 815–821. 10.1038/nm0895-815Search in Google Scholar

[3] S. Blower and T. Porco, Quantifying the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis, Theoret. Popul. Biol. 54 (1998), no. 2, 117–132. 10.1006/tpbi.1998.1366Search in Google Scholar

[4] S. Blower, T. Porco and T. Lietman, Tuberculosis: The evolution of antibiotic resistance and the design of epidemic control strategies, Math. Models Med. Health Sci. (1998). Search in Google Scholar

[5] S. Blower, T. Porco, P. Small, Amplification dynamics: Predicting the effect of hiv on tuberculosis outbreaks, J. Aquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 28 (2001), no. 5, 437–444. 10.1097/00042560-200112150-00005Search in Google Scholar

[6] S. Blower, P. Small and P. Hopewell, Control strategies for tuberculosis epidemics: New models for old problems, Science 273 (1996), no. 5274, 497–500. 10.1126/science.273.5274.497Search in Google Scholar PubMed

[7] L. Elsgolts, Differential Equations and the Calculus of Variations, Nauka, Moscow, 1970. Search in Google Scholar

[8] A. Ilyin, S. Kabanikhin and O. Krivorotko, Determination of the parameters of the models described by systems of nonlinear differential equations, Sib. Èlektron. Mat. Izv. 11 (2014). 10.1515/jiip-2015-0072Search in Google Scholar

[9] L. Ingber, Very fast simulated re-annealing, Math. Comput. Model. 12 (1989), no. 8, 967–973. 10.1016/0895-7177(89)90202-1Search in Google Scholar

[10] L. Ingber, Simulated annealing: Practice versus theory, Math. Comput. Model. 18 (1993), no. 11, 29–57. 10.1016/0895-7177(93)90204-CSearch in Google Scholar

[11] L. Ingber, Adaptive simulated annealing (asa): Lessons learned, Control Cybernet. 25 (1996), 33–54. Search in Google Scholar

[12] S. Kabanikhin, Inverse and Ill-Posed Problems: Theory and Applications, Walter De Gruyter, Berlin, 2011. 10.1515/9783110224016Search in Google Scholar

[13] S. Kabanikhin and O. Krivorotko, Identication of biological models described by systems of nonlinear differential equations, J. Inverse Ill-Posed Probl. 23 (2015), no. 5, 519–527. 10.1515/jiip-2015-0072Search in Google Scholar

[14] S. Kabanikhin and M. Shishlenin, Direct and iteration methods for solving inverse and ill-posed problems, Sib. Èlektron. Mat. Izv. 5 (2008), 595–608. Search in Google Scholar

[15] S. Kabanikhin, D. Voronov, A. Grodz and O. Krivorotko, Identifiability of mathematical models in medical biology, Vavilov J. Genet. Breeding 19 (2015), no. 6, 738–744. 10.18699/VJ15.097Search in Google Scholar

[16] A. Lopatin, Annealing method, Stochastic Optim. Inform. (2005), no. 1, 133–149. Search in Google Scholar

[17] H. Miao, X. Xia, A. S. Perelson and H. Wu, On identifiability of nonlinear ode models and applications in viral dynamics, SIAM Rev. 53 (2011), no. 1, 3–39. 10.1137/090757009Search in Google Scholar PubMed PubMed Central

[18] C. Murray and J. Salomon, Modeling the impact of global tuberculosis control strategies, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95 (1998), no. 23, 13881–13886. 10.1073/pnas.95.23.13881Search in Google Scholar PubMed PubMed Central

[19] C. Murray and J. Salomon, Using Mathematical Models to Evaluate Global Tuberculosis Control Strategies, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Camridge, 1998. Search in Google Scholar

[20] A. Neubauer and O. Scherzer, A convergence rate result for a steepest descent method and a minimal error method for the solution of nonlinear ill-posed problems, Z. Anal. Anwend. 14 (1995), no. 2, 369–377. 10.4171/ZAA/679Search in Google Scholar

[21] M. Perelman, G. Marchuk, S. Borisov, B. Kazennukh, K. Avilov, A. Karkach and A. Romanyukha, Tuberculosis epidemiology in russia: The mathematical model and data analysis, Russian J. Numer. Anal. Math. Modelling 19 (2004), no. 4, 305–314. 10.1515/1569398041974905Search in Google Scholar

[22] K. Stỳblo and J. Bumgarner, Tuberculosis can be controlled with existing technologies: Evidence, Tuberculosis Surveillance Res. Unit Prog. Rep. 2 (1991), 60–72. Search in Google Scholar

[23] J. Trauer, J. Denholm and E. McBryde, Construction of a mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission in highly endemic regions of the asia-pacific, J. Theoret. Biol. 358 (2014), 74–84. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.05.023Search in Google Scholar PubMed

[24] V. Vasin, On the convergence of gradient-type methods for nonlinear equations, Dokl. Math. 57 (1998), no. 2, 173–175. Search in Google Scholar

[25] E. Vynnycky and P. Fine, The natural history of tuberculosis: The implications of age-dependent risks of disease and the role of reinfection, Epidemiology Infection 119 (1997), no. 2, 183–201. 10.1017/S0950268897007917Search in Google Scholar PubMed PubMed Central

[26] H. Waaler, A dynamic model for the epidemiology of tuberculosis 1, 2, Amer. Rev. Respiratory Disease 98 (1968), no. 4, 591–600. 10.1016/S0041-3879(68)80031-5Search in Google Scholar

[27] H. Waaler, Cost-benefit analysis of bcg-vaccination under various epidemiological situations, Bull. Internat. Union Tuberculosis 41 (1968), 42–52. Search in Google Scholar

[28] H. Waaler, A. Geser and S. Andersen, The use of mathematical models in the study of the epidemiology of tuberculosis, Amer. J. Public Health Nations Health 52 (1962), no. 6, 1002–1013. 10.2105/AJPH.52.6.1002Search in Google Scholar PubMed PubMed Central

[29] H. Waaler, G. Goth, G. Baily and S. Nair, Tuberculosis in rural south india. a study of possible trends and the potential impact of antituberculosis programmes, Bull. World Health Org. 51 (1974), no. 3, 263–271. Search in Google Scholar

[30] H. Waaler and M. Piot, The use of an epidemiological model for estimating the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures: Sensitivity of the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures to the coverage of the population, Bull. World Health Org. 41 (1969), no. 1, 75–93. Search in Google Scholar

[31] H. Waaler and M. Piot, The use of an epidemiological model for estimating the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures: Sensitivity of the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures to the social time preference, Bull. World Health Org. 43 (1970), 1–16. Search in Google Scholar

[32] A. Zhiglyavskii and A. Zhilinskas, Methods of Searching the Global Extremum, Nauka, Moscow, 1991. Search in Google Scholar

[33] Birth rate, mortality and natural change of the population on the subjects of the russian federation, http://www.gks.ru/. Search in Google Scholar

[34] Number of the resident population (people) at 1 january 1990-2010 year in the russian federation, http://www.fedstat.ru/. Search in Google Scholar

[35] Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation in 2008. Analytical review of tuberculosis statistical indicators used in the Russian Federation, Moscow, 2009. Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2017-2-18
Revised: 2017-7-31
Accepted: 2017-7-31
Published Online: 2017-9-6
Published in Print: 2018-2-1

© 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 9.9.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/jiip-2017-0019/html
Scroll to top button