Abstract
A new combined numerical algorithm for solving inverse problems of epidemiology is described in this paper. The combined algorithm consists of optimization and iterative methods, and determines the parameters specific to a particular population by using the statistical information for a few previous years. The coefficients of the epidemiology model describe particular qualities of the population and the development of the disease. The inverse problem of parameter identification in a mathematical model is reduced to the problem of minimizing an objective function characterizing the square deviation of the statistical data from the experimental data. The combination of statistical and optimization algorithms demonstrates the identification of parameters with an appropriate relative accuracy of 30Ṫhe results can be used by public health organizations to predict the infectious disease epidemic in a given region by comparing the data of simulation with historical data.
Funding statement: This work is supported by the Scholarship of the President of Russian Federation MK-1214.2017.1 “Investigation and development of numerical algorithms of direct and inverse problems in immunology and epidemiology” and the Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation (4.1.3 The Joint Laboratories of NSU-NSC SB RAS).
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Prof. Alexey Romanyukha (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) for the problem statement and fruitful discussions. We would like to thank A. Borisov and S. Belilovsky (Moscow Scientific and Clinical Center for Tuberculosis Control, Moscow Health Department, Moscow) for statistical data preparation of Russian Federation.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Partial inverse problems for the Sturm–Liouville operator on a star-shaped graph with mixed boundary conditions
- A two-dimensional backward heat problem with statistical discrete data
- A modified coupled complex boundary method for an inverse chromatography problem
- Tensor based approach to the numerical treatment of the parameter estimation problems in mathematical immunology
- A regularized two-dimensional sampling algorithm
- Injectivity and weak*-to-weak continuity suffice for convergence rates in ℓ1-regularization
- Inverse problems in Pareto’s demand theory and their applications to analysis of stock market crises
- Multiscale Galerkin methods for the nonstationary iterated Tikhonov method with a modified posteriori parameter selection
- A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Partial inverse problems for the Sturm–Liouville operator on a star-shaped graph with mixed boundary conditions
- A two-dimensional backward heat problem with statistical discrete data
- A modified coupled complex boundary method for an inverse chromatography problem
- Tensor based approach to the numerical treatment of the parameter estimation problems in mathematical immunology
- A regularized two-dimensional sampling algorithm
- Injectivity and weak*-to-weak continuity suffice for convergence rates in ℓ1-regularization
- Inverse problems in Pareto’s demand theory and their applications to analysis of stock market crises
- Multiscale Galerkin methods for the nonstationary iterated Tikhonov method with a modified posteriori parameter selection
- A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs
- An inverse problem for the KdV equation with Neumann boundary measured data