Evolution and Future of the Competitive Advantages of Wine-Producing Countries
-
Alex Bao
,
Jean-Marie Cardebat
Abstract
This paper discusses international trade prospects of the main wine-producing countries over different time horizons. Our framework is composed of two approaches and aims at renewing and extending the findings of the existing literature on the dynamics of major wine exporters. Firstly, we apply a Porter’s diamond analysis in order to disentangle competitive advantages in 16 countries from various features of the global wine market. Then, we assess short- and medium-term prospects from the evolution of past trends. Secondly, we use data from a survey of (57) wine experts as a robustness analysis to complete the prospective dimension over the long term. Compared with previous literature (prior to the Covid and Ukraine shocks), our results show that the international competitiveness of countries has significantly changed over the last five years. France and Italy should maintain their leadership, but Spain and Chile are slipping back, while China could collapse. New Zealand could eventually become a major leader. These results indicate that competitive advantages are very dynamic in the wine industry, despite static natural endowments (excluding climate). Investment incentives and innovation should therefore play a key role in the long term in this sector, which is often presented as being driven by tradition and natural factors.
See (Tables A1 and A2, Figures A3 and A4, Tables A5–A7, Figure A8).
Proportion of international trade components at a worldwide scale in 2021.
| Countries | Share of exports | Share of imports | Rank exporters | Rank importers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 0.2412 | 0.0109 | 1 | 10 |
| Italy | 0.2266 | 0.0482 | 2 | 6 |
| France | 0.1493 | 0.0952 | 3 | 4 |
| Chile | 0.0884 | 0.0004 | 4 | 14 |
| Australia | 0.0645 | 0.0163 | 5 | 9 |
| South Africa | 0.0489 | 0.0004 | 6 | 13 |
| Germany | 0.0377 | 0.2383 | 7 | 1 |
| Argentina | 0.0341 | 0.0000 | 8 | 16 |
| Portugal | 0.0336 | 0.0479 | 9 | 7 |
| USA | 0.0333 | 0.2243 | 10 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 0.0291 | 0.0066 | 11 | 11 |
| Georgia | 0.0082 | 0.0001 | 12 | 15 |
| UK | 0.0037 | 0.2128 | 13 | 3 |
| Brazil | 0.0008 | 0.0294 | 14 | 8 |
| China (HK + Macao) | 0.0004 | 0.0684 | 15 | 5 |
| India | 0.0001 | 0.0009 | 16 | 12 |
Proportion of production at a worldwide scale in 2021.
| Countries | Share of production | Rank producers |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 0.2195 | 1 |
| France | 0.1645 | 2 |
| Spain | 0.1550 | 3 |
| USA | 0.1052 | 4 |
| Australia | 0.0647 | 5 |
| Chile | 0.0587 | 6 |
| Argentina | 0.0545 | 7 |
| South Africa | 0.0471 | 8 |
| Germany | 0.0382 | 9 |
| Portugal | 0.0321 | 10 |
| China | 0.0258 | 11 |
| Brazil | 0.0128 | 12 |
| New Zealand | 0.0116 | 13 |
| Georgia | 0.0092 | 14 |
| India | 0.0008 | 15 |
| United Kingdom | 0.0003 | 16 |
Exported volumes of the main wine-exporting countries, 2011–2022 (in 1,000 hL). Note: Percentage figures represent percentage increases over the 2011–2022 period. (∗) for China, we include Macao and Hong-Kong wine exports. Source: International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).
Global wine exports by main regions (in million hL). Source: Authors’ calculations from OIV data.
Items selected to assess country competitive advantage in the context of Porter’s diamond.
| Factor conditions | Market structure |
|---|---|
| Agricultural area in 1,000 ha, 2019 (FAO) | Average price per litre exported, 2021 (UN Comtrade) |
| Vineyard area in 1,000 ha/agricultural land, 2019 (OIV/FAO) | Variation of wine export in value, 1995–2021 (UN Comtrade) |
| Variation of vineyard area, 1995–2021 (OIV) | Wine export in volume in 1,000 hL, 2022 (OIV) |
| Productivity level: GDP/total hours worked, 2019 (World Bank/OECD) | Variation of wine export in volume, 1995–2022 (OIV) |
| Water availability per capita in m3/hab, 2018 (FAO) | Wine exports in million USD/area, 2020 (UN Comtrade/OIV) |
| Rainfall/surface area in thousands of square km, 2020 (FAO) | FDI inflows in billion USD/GDP in billion USD, 2019 (OECD and government reports) |
| World Risk Index, 2021 (World Risk Index) | Country risk assessment Q4, 2021 (Coface) |
| Agriculture area certified organic in % of total area, 2019 (EU website and governmental websites) | Ease of doing business – World bank Score, 2020 (World Bank) |
| Shanghai ranking for being in the top 100 in agricultural sciences, 2021 (Shanghai Ranking) | Wine exports – Wine imports in million Euro, 2020 (UN Comtrade, OIV) |
| Pesticide used in tonnes/agricultural area, 2019 (FAO) | Government expenditure for agriculture/total government expenditure in million USD, 2019 (FAO) |
|
|
|
| Related industries | Demand conditions |
|
|
|
| Number of WSET delivering places (WSET) | Adjusted net national income per capita in current USD, 2021 (World Bank) |
| Grapes – Gross production value in current thousand USD, 2020 (UN Comtrade) | Consumption per capita in litre/year, 2021 (OIV) |
| Beer exports/total exports in value, 2021 (UN Comtrade) | Evolution consumption per capita, 1995–2021 (OIV) |
| Spirits exports/total exports in value, 2021 (UN Comtrade) | Annual consumption in 1,000 hL, 2021 (OIV) |
| Glass exports/Total exports in value, 2020 (UN Comtrade) | Evolution annual consumption, 1995–2021 (OIV) |
| Share of agriculture in GDP, 2020 (UN Comtrade and governmental websites) | Wine imports in 1,000 hL, 2021 (OIV) |
| Number of unicorns/population, 2020 (Failory/World Bank) | Evolution annual wine imports, 1995–2021 (OIV) |
| Number of patent applications/population, 2020 (government reports) | Share of world total wine import, 2021 (UN Comtrade) |
| Value-added tax (VAT) on alcohol in % (Anderson, Nelgen, and Pinilla 2017, https://expathub.ge/taxes-in-georgia-country-income-corporate/ for Georgia) | |
-
Source: Authors (derived from Porter 1990; Van Rooyen, Esterhuizen, and Stroebel 2011; Bargain et al. 2018).
List of formulae.
| For each country, we compute the following indicators: Calculus of the score of each vertex: For k = {Factor conditions, Related industries, Market Structure, Demand conditions} and ‘Serie’ corresponding to the decile score obtained by a country for a respective variable. Calculus of the overall score of Porter’s diamond: Calculus of the score of the survey: With ‘Rating’ being the score attributed for a respective country by a respective number of wine experts. Calculus of the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for the wine industry: We consider here the share of wine export (p) of a respective country (c) in its total export value compared to the share of wine export for the aggregate of wine exporting countries ( |
Origin of respondents.
 |
Clustering without factor conditions.
References
Alonso Ugaglia, A., J. M. Cardebat, and A. Corsi. 2019. The Palgrave Handbook of Wine Industry Economics. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave MacMillan.10.1007/978-3-319-98633-3Search in Google Scholar
Alston, J. M., and D. Gaeta. 2021. “Reflections on the Political Economy of European Wine Appellations.” Italian Economic Journal 7 (2): 219–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00145-4.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, K. 2023. “What’s Happened to the Wine Market in China?” Journal of Wine Economics 18 (2): 173–83, https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2023.16.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, K., S. Nelgen, and V. Pinilla. 2017. “Global wine markets, 1860 to 2016: A statistical compendium.” Adelaide: University of Adelaide Press.10.20851/global-wine-marketsSearch in Google Scholar
Anderson, K., and V. Pinilla. 2022. “Wine’s Belated Globalization, 1845–2025.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 44 (2): 742–65. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13174.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, K., and G. Wittwer. 2013. “Modeling Global Wine Markets to 2018: Exchange Rates, Taste Changes, and China’s Import Growth.” Journal of Wine Economics 8 (2): 131–58. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2013.31.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, K., and G. Wittwer. 2015. “Asia’s Evolving Role in Global Wine Markets.” China Economic Review 35: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.05.003.Search in Google Scholar
Balassa, B. 1965. “Trade Liberalization and Revealed Comparative Advantage.” The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies 33 (2): 99–124.10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.xSearch in Google Scholar
Balogh, J. M., and A. Jámbor. 2017. “The Global Competitiveness of European Wine Producers.” British Food Journal 119 (9): 2076–88, https://doi.org/10.1108/bfj-12-2016-0609.Search in Google Scholar
Bargain, O., J. M. Cardebat, and R. Chiappini. 2023. “Trade Uncorked: Genetic Distance and Taste-Related Barriers in Wine Trade.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 105: 674–708. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12335.Search in Google Scholar
Bargain, O., J. M. Cardebat, R. Chiappini, and C. Laffitte. 2018. “Long-term Prospects of the International Wine Trade.” Journal of Wine Economics 13 (4): 442–50. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2018.42.Search in Google Scholar
Beaujanot, A. Q., L. Lockshin, and P. Quester. 2004. Distributors’ Business Characteristics, Buyer/seller Relationship and Market Orientation: an Empirical Study of the Australian Wine Export Industry. Journal of Marketing Channels 12 (1): 79–100, https://doi.org/10.1300/j049v12n01_05.Search in Google Scholar
Cardebat, J. M., B. Faye, and H. Hocquard. 2023. “Visions partagées des parties prenantes sur le futur de la compétitivité mondiale de l’industrie du vin: Une prospective de la compétitivité sur le marché global du vin.” Systèmes Alimentaires Food Systems 8: 2023.Search in Google Scholar
Cardebat, J. M., and J. M. Figuet. 2019. “The Impact of Exchange Rates on French Wine Exports.” Journal of Wine Economics 14 (1): 71–89. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2019.2.Search in Google Scholar
Castillo, J., E. Villanueva, and M. García-Cortijo. 2016. “The International Wine Trade and its New Export Dynamics (1988–2012): A Gravity Model Approach.” Agribusiness 32 (4): 466–81. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21463.Search in Google Scholar
Corsinovi, P., and D. Gaeta. 2019. “The European Wine Policies: Regulations and Strategies.” In The Palgrave handbook of wine industry economics, 265–90. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave MacMillan.10.1007/978-3-319-98633-3_13Search in Google Scholar
Crescimanno, M., and A. Galati. 2014. “Competitiveness of Italian Wines in the International Market.” Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science 20 (1): 12–22.Search in Google Scholar
Crescimanno, M., A. Galati, and T. Bal. 2014. “The Role of the Economic Crisis on the Competitiveness of the Agri-Food Sector in the Main Mediterranean Countries.” Agricultural Economics 60 (2): 49–64. https://doi.org/10.17221/59/2013-agricecon.Search in Google Scholar
Dal Bianco, A., V. L. Boatto, F. Caracciolo, and F. G. Santeramo. 2016. “Tariffs and Non-tariff Frictions in the World Wine Trade.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 43 (1): 31–57. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbv008.Search in Google Scholar
Dascal, D., K. Mattas, and V. Tzouvelekas. 2002. “An Analysis of EU Wine Trade: A Gravity Model Approach.” International Advances in Economic Research 8 (2): 135–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02295344.Search in Google Scholar
Galati, A., S. Tinervia, M. Crescimanno, and F. Spezia. 2017. “Changes in the International Wine Market Competitiveness.” International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business 9 (4): 277–93. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijgsb.2017.10011023.Search in Google Scholar
Gouveia, S., J. Rebelo, and L. Lourenço-Gomes. 2018. “Port Wine Exports: A Gravity Model Approach.” International Journal of Wine Business Research. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijwbr-02-2017-0008.Search in Google Scholar
Linder, S. B. 1961. An Essay on Trade and Transformation, 82–109. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell.Search in Google Scholar
Lombardi, P., A. Dal Bianco, R. Freda, F. Caracciolo, and L. Cembalo. 2016. “Development and Trade Competitiveness of the European Wine Sector: A Gravity Analysis of Intra-EU Flows.” Wine Economics and Policy 5 (1): 50–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wep.2015.12.002.Search in Google Scholar
Macedo, A., S. Gouveia, J. Rebelo, J. A. Santos, and H. Fraga. 2021. “International Trade, Non-tariff Measures and Climate Change: Insights from Port Wine Exports.” Journal of Economic Studies 48 (6): 1228–43, https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-04-2020-0161.Search in Google Scholar
Macedo, A., J. Rebelo, and S. Gouveia. 2023. “The Impact of COVID-19 Government Policy on the International Wine Trade.” Agricultural and Food Economics 11 (1): 44. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-023-00276-5.Search in Google Scholar
Malheiro, A. C., J. A. Santos, H. Fraga, and J. G. Pinto. 2010. “Climate Change Scenarios Applied to Viticultural Zoning in Europe.” Climate Research 43 (3): 163–77. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00918.Search in Google Scholar
Mariani, A., and E. Pomarici. 2019. “Barriers to Wine Trade.” In The Palgrave handbook of wine industry economics, 291–315. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave MacMillan.10.1007/978-3-319-98633-3_14Search in Google Scholar
Mizik, T., and J. M. Balogh. 2022. “The Development of the Chinese Wine Industry and Trade.” International Journal of Wine Business Research 34 (4): 643–60. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijwbr-09-2021-0045.Search in Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., G. V. Jones, B. Bois, C. Dibari, R. Ferrise, G. Trombi, and M. Bindi. 2013. “Projected Shifts of Wine Regions in Response to Climate Change.” Climatic Change 119: 825–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0739-y.Search in Google Scholar
Morrison, A., and R. Rabellotti. 2017. “Gradual Catch up and Enduring Leadership in the Global Wine Industry.” Research Policy 46 (2): 417–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.09.007.Search in Google Scholar
Niklas, B., J. M. Cardebat, R. M. Back, D. Gaeta, V. Pinilla, J. Rebelo, R. Jara-Rojas, and G. Schamel. 2022. “Wine Industry Perceptions and Reactions to the COVID‐19 Crisis in the Old and New Worlds: Do Business Models Make a Difference?” Agribusiness 38 (4): 810–31. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21748.Search in Google Scholar
Ollat, N., J. M. Touzard, and C. van Leeuwen. 2016. “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations: New Challenges for the Wine Industry.” Journal of Wine Economics 11 (1): 139–49. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2016.3.Search in Google Scholar
Pomarici, E., and R. Sardone. 2020. “EU Wine Policy in the Framework of the CAP: Post-2020 Challenges.” Agricultural and Food Economics 8: 1–40. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-020-00159-z.Search in Google Scholar
Porter, M. E. 1990. “The Competitive Advantage of Nations.” Harvard Business Review (March-April): 73–93.10.1007/978-1-349-11336-1Search in Google Scholar
Porter, M. E. 1998. “Clusters and the New Economics of Competition.” Harvard Business Review 76 (6): 77–90.Search in Google Scholar
Thome, K. M., and V. A. L. Paiva. 2020. “Sparkling Wine International Market Structure and Competitiveness.” Wine Economics and Policy 9 (2): 37–47. https://doi.org/10.36253/web-8433.Search in Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C., G. Sgubin, B. Bois, N. Ollat, D. Swingedouw, S. Zito, and G. A. Gambetta. 2024. “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations of Wine Production.” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 5 (4): 258–75. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00521-5.Search in Google Scholar
Van Rooyen, J., D. Esterhuizen, and L. Stroebel. 2011. “Analyzing the Competitive Performance of the South African Wine Industry.” The International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 14 (4): 179–200.Search in Google Scholar
© 2025 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
