Abstract
The Hand Formula internalizes tort externalities into decision-making by comparing prevention costs with accident damages, achieving theoretical breakthroughs in liability determination. However, in human-machine collaborative driving, AI’s “black box” nature and decision complexity make accident probabilities unpredictable and costs impossible to internalize, weakening institutional incentives due to extended decision chains and multiple liability subjects. To address this, negligence-based causal rules must evolve with changing care level concepts, while activity-based causal approaches better suit human–machine interactions. Institutionally, accident liability mechanisms should incorporate presumption of fault, establish multi-tiered liability allocation, and promote proactive insurance involvement. As AI develops, personalized rules will transform through intelligent evolution to become legal system fundamentals, while causation will serve both as a liability allocation tool and a mechanism for social stability.
References
Abraham, K. S. 2005. “Liability Insurance and Accident Prevention: The Evolution of an Idea.” Maryland Law Review 64: 573.Search in Google Scholar
Abraham, Kenneth S. and Rabin, Robert L. 2018. “Automated Vehicles and Manufacturer Responsibility for Accidents: A New Legal Regime for a New Era.” Virginia Law Review 2018 (19): 1–15, Forthcoming, Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper, Stanford Public Law Working Paper.Search in Google Scholar
Alarie, B., A. Niblett, and A. Yoon. 2016. “How Artificial Intelligence Will Affect the Practice of Law.” University of Toronto Law Journal 68 (S1): 106–24. https://doi.org/10.3138/utlj.2017-0052.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, J. M., K. Nidhi, K. D. Stanley, P. Sorensen, C. Samaras, and O. A. Oluwatola. 2016. Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Search in Google Scholar
Awad, Edmond, Sohan Dsouza, Richard Kim, Jonathan Schulz, Joseph Henrich, and Azim Shariff, et al.. 2018. “The Moral Machine Experiment.” Nature 563: 59–64, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0637-6.Search in Google Scholar
Balakrishnan, K. 2022. “Functional Safety Concept of ‘Minimum Risk Maneuver’ in Conditional Driving Automation (Level 3) Vehicles.” SAE Technical Paper 2022-28-0301. https://doi.org/10.4271/2022-28-0301.Search in Google Scholar
Ben-Shahar, O., and A. Porat. 2021. Personalized Law: Different Rules for Different People, 23–7. New York: Oxford Academic.Search in Google Scholar
Boeglin, Jack. 2015. “The Costs of Self-Driving Cars: Reconciling Freedom and Privacy with Tort Liability in Autonomous Vehicle Regulation.” Yale Journal of Law and Technology 17: 171–204.Search in Google Scholar
Boudette, N. E., C. Metz, and J. Ewing. 2022. “Tesla Autopilot and Other Driver-Assist Systems Linked to Hundreds of Crashes.” The New York Times. June 15.Search in Google Scholar
Bühlmanni, H. 1967. “Experience Rating and Credibility.” ASTIN Bulletin 4 (3): 199–207. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0515036100008989.Search in Google Scholar
Calabresi, G. 1961. “Some Thoughts on Risk Distribution and the Law of Torts.” Yale Law Journal 70: 499. https://doi.org/10.2307/794261.Search in Google Scholar
Calabresi, Guido. 1970. The Costs of Accidents: A Legal and Economic Analysis. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Carballo-Fazanes, A., and J. J. L. M. Bierens. 2020. “International Expert Group to Study Drowning Behavior. The Visible Behavior of Drowning Persons: A Pilot Observational Study Using Analytic Software and a Nominal Group Technique.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17 (18): 6930. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186930.Search in Google Scholar
Casey, A. J., and A. Niblett. 2017. “The Death of Rules and Standards.” Indiana Law Journal 92 (4).Search in Google Scholar
Casey, A. J., and A. Niblett. 2019. “A Framework for the New Personalization of Law.” University of Chicago Law Review 86: 333.Search in Google Scholar
Coase, Ronald H. 1960. “The Problem of Social Cost.” Journal of Law and Economics 3: 1–44.Search in Google Scholar
Collingwood, Lisa. 2017. “Privacy Implications and Liability Issues of Autonomous Vehicles.” Information & Communications Technology Law 26 (1): 32–45. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600834.2017.1269871.Search in Google Scholar
Cooter, Robert, and Thomas Ulen. 2012. Law and Economics, 6th ed. Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc.Search in Google Scholar
Cornelisse, Daphne, and Vinitsky Eugene. 2024. “Human-Compatible Driving Partners Through Data-Regularized Self-Play Reinforcement Learning.” Reinforcement Learning Journal 5: 2320–44.Search in Google Scholar
Dai, X. (戴昕) 2024. “No-Fault Liability and the Development of Artificial Intelligence: A Perspective Based on Legal Economic Analysis” (无过错责任与人工智能发展). Journal of the East China University of Politics & Law (华东政法大学学报) 5: 38–55.Search in Google Scholar
De Freitas, Julian, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman, and Luigi Di Lillo. 2025. “Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability.” Journal of Consumer Psychology 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1448.Search in Google Scholar
Deng, C., S. Cao, C. Wu, and N. Lyu. 2019. “Modeling Driver Take-Over Reaction Time and Emergency Response Time Using an Integrated Cognitive Architecture.” Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673 (12): 380–90, https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119842114.Search in Google Scholar
Dillbary, J. Shahar, and William M. Landes. 2022. Law and Economics: Theory, Cases, and Other Materials. New York: Wolters Kluwer.Search in Google Scholar
Epstein, R. A. 1973. “A Theory of Strict Liability.” Journal of Legal Studies 2: 151–3. https://doi.org/10.1086/467495.Search in Google Scholar
European Commission. 2021. “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Laying Down Harmonised Rules on Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act) and Amending Certain Union Legislative Acts.” In COM (2021) 206 Final. Brussels: European Commission.Search in Google Scholar
European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights. 2022. Bias in Algorithms – Artificial Intelligence and Discrimination, 49–62. Vienna: European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights.Search in Google Scholar
Federal Highway Administration. 2022. Driver Adaptation to Vehicle Automation: The Effect of Driver Assistance Systems on Driving Performance and System Monitoring (Publication No. FHWA-HRT-22-072). USA: U.S. Department of Transportation.Search in Google Scholar
Geistfeld, M. A. 2017. “A Roadmap for Autonomous Vehicles: State Tort Liability, Automobile Insurance, and Federal Safety Regulation.” California Law Review 105: 1611–94.Search in Google Scholar
Goldman, Alvin I. 2012. “Theory of Mind.” In The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Cognitive Science, edited by Eric, Margolis, Richard, Samuels, and Stephen, P. Stich. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Grady, Mark F. 1984. “Proximate Cause and the Law of Negligence.” Iowa Law Review 69 (2): 363–450.Search in Google Scholar
Grady, Mark F. 1988. “Why are People Negligent? Technology, Nondurable Precautions, and the Medical Malpractice Explosion.” Northwestern University Law Review 82 (2): 293–334.Search in Google Scholar
Guerra, Alice, Barbara Luppi, and Francesco Parisi. 2022. “Do Presumptions of Negligence Incentivize Optimal Precautions?” European Journal of Law and Economics 54: 349–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-022-09737-6.Search in Google Scholar
Hubbard, William. 2025. “Drivers of Effective Laws for Automated Vehicles.” Villanova Law Review 70 (1): 115–67.Search in Google Scholar
Kaplow, Louis. 1992. “Rules Versus Standards: An Economic Analysis.” Duke Law Journal 42 (3): 557–629.Search in Google Scholar
Kaplow, Louis. 2012. “On the Optimal Burden of Proof.” Journal of Political Economy 120 (6): 1104–40.Search in Google Scholar
Karnow, Curtis E. A. 2016. “The Application of Traditional Tort Theory to Embodied Machine Intelligence.” In Robot Law, 51–77. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.Search in Google Scholar
Kim, Jeong-Yoo. 2021. “Burdens of Proof and Judicial Errors in Civil Litigation.” Korean Economic Review 37 (1): 5–35.Search in Google Scholar
Kim, Jeong-Yoo. 2024. “Law and Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Optimal Liability Rules for Accident Losses Caused by Fully Autonomous Vehicles.” Korea Economic Review 40 (1): 55–75.Search in Google Scholar
Korobkin, Russell B., and Thomas S. Ulen. 2000. “Law and Behavioral Science: Removing the Rationality Assumption from Law and Economics.” California Law Review 88 (4): 1051–144.Search in Google Scholar
Landes, William M., and A. Richard Posner. 1987. The Economic Structure of Tort Law. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Lessig, Lawrence. 1998. “The New Chicago School.” The Journal of Legal Studies 27 (2): 661–91.Search in Google Scholar
Lightman, Hunter, Vineet Kosaraju, Yura Burda, Harri Edwards, Bowen Baker, and Teddy Lee, et al.. 2023. “Let’s Verify Step by Step.” arXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.20050.Search in Google Scholar
Logue, Kyle D. 2019. “The Deterrence Case for Comprehensive Automaker Enterprise Liability.” Journal of Law and Mobility 2019: 1–32. https://doi.org/10.36635/jlm.2019.deterrence.Search in Google Scholar
Maracke, Catherina. 2020. “Autonomous Driving – Reality Or Wishful Thinking?” Rutgers Computer and Technology Law Journal 46 (2): 1–21.Search in Google Scholar
Maurer, Markus, J. Christian Gerdes, Barbara Lenz, and Hermann Winner. 2016. Autonomous Driving: Technical, Legal and Social Aspects. Berlin: Heidelberg: Springer.Search in Google Scholar
McCarty v. Pheasant Run, Inc. 1987. 826 F.2d 1554 (7th Cir. 1987).Search in Google Scholar
Moisan v. Loftus. 1949. 178 F.2d 148, 149 (2nd Cir. 1949).Search in Google Scholar
Moore, Underhill, and Charles C. Callahan. 1943. “Law and Learning Theory: A Study in Legal Control.” Yale Law Journal 53 (1): 1–136.Search in Google Scholar
National Conference of State Legislatures. 2018. “Autonomous Vehicles: Self-Driving Vehicles Enacted Legislation.” http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles (accessed May 31, 2025)Search in Google Scholar
Palsgraf v. Long Island Railway Co. 1928. 248 N.Y. 399, 162 N.E. 99.Search in Google Scholar
Porat, A. 2011. “Misalignments in Tort Law.” Yale Law Journal 121: 82–96.Search in Google Scholar
Porat, Ariel, and Lior Jacob Strahilevitz. 2014. “Personalizing Default Rules and Disclosure with Big Data.” Michigan Law Review 112 (8): 1417–86.Search in Google Scholar
Posner, A. Richard. 1986. Economic Analysis of Law, 3rd ed., 147–51. Boston: Little, Brown and Company.Search in Google Scholar
Posner, Richard. A. 2014. Economic Analysis of Law, 9th ed. Boston: Aspen Publishers.Search in Google Scholar
Posner, E. A., and C. R. Sunstein. 2005. “Dollars and Death.” University of Chicago Law Review 72 (3): 537–43.Search in Google Scholar
Premack, David, and Guy Woodruff. 1978. “Does the Chimpanzee have a Theory of Mind?” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 1 (4): 515–26.Search in Google Scholar
Robertson, Cassandra Burke. 2024. “Litigating Partial Autonomy.” Iowa Law Review 109 (4): 1655–702.Search in Google Scholar
Roese, N. J., and K. D. Vohs. 2012. “Hindsight Bias.” Perspectives on Psychological Science 7: 411–8. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612454303.Search in Google Scholar
Romano, Carlo. 2002. Advance Tax Rulings and Principles of Law. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: IBFD Publications BV.Search in Google Scholar
Sandmo, Agnar. 1978. “Direct versus Indirect Pigouvian Taxation.” European Economic Review 7: 337–49.Search in Google Scholar
Schellekens, M. 2015. “Self-driving Cars and the Chilling Effect of Liability Law.” Computer Law & Security Review 31 (4): 506–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clsr.2015.05.012.Search in Google Scholar
Schwarting, W., A. Pierson, S. Karaman, and D. Rus. 2021. “Stochastic Dynamic Games in Belief Space.” IEEE Transactions on Robotics 37 (6): 2157–72. https://doi.org/10.1109/TRO.2021.3075376.Search in Google Scholar
Schwartz, Gary T. 1997. “Mixed Theories of Tort Law: Affirming Both Deterrence and Corrective Justice.” Texas Law Review 75: 1801–34.Search in Google Scholar
Selbst, A. D., and S. Baracas. 2018. “The Intuitive Appeal of Explainable Machines.” Fordham Law Review 87: 1085.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, S. 1980. “Strict Liability Versus Negligence.” Journal of Legal Studies 9: 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1086/467626.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, S. 1984. “A Model of the Optimal Use of Liability and Safety Regulation.” The RAND Journal of Economics 15 (2): 271–80. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555680.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, Steven. 1987. Economic Analysis of Accident Law. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, Steven. 2004. Foundations of Economic Analysis of Law. Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, Steven. 2007. “Liability for Accidents.” In Handbook of Law and Economics, 1, edited by A. Mitchell Polinsky, and Steven Shavell, 137–82. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Search in Google Scholar
Shavell, Steven. 2024. “An Alternative to the Basic Causal Requirement for Liability Under the Negligence Rule.” Journal of Tort Law 17 (1): 61–92. https://doi.org/10.1515/jtl-2023-0014.Search in Google Scholar
Sugarman, S. D. 1985. “Doing Away with Tort Law.” California Law Review 73 (3): 555–664. https://doi.org/10.2307/3480338.Search in Google Scholar
Sunstein, Cass R. 2008. “Illusory Losses.” Journal of Legal Studies 37 (S2): S157-94.Search in Google Scholar
Surden, H. 2014. “Machine Learning and Law.” Washington Law Review 89 (1): 87–115.Search in Google Scholar
Surden, H., and M.-A. Williams. 2016. “Technological Opacity, Predictability, and Self-Driving Cars.” Cardozo Law Review 38: 150–62.Search in Google Scholar
SAE International On-Road Automated Driving Committee. 2021. “Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles.” J3016_202104. Warrendale, PA: SAE International.Search in Google Scholar
Thaler, R. 1980. “Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 1: 39. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7.Search in Google Scholar
Tschide, C. A. 2023. “Humans are Outside the Loop.” Yale Journal of Law & Technology 26: 324. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4580744.Search in Google Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman Daniel. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47 (2): 263–91.Search in Google Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 211 (4481): 453–8.Search in Google Scholar
Viscusi, W. K. 1991. Reforming Products Liability. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar
Wager, S. 2024. Causal Inference: A Statistical Learning Approach. Draft version. Stanford University. https://web.stanford.edu/∼swager/causal_inf_book.pdf (accessed May 31, 2025).Search in Google Scholar
Wang, J., P. Wang, C. Zhang, K. Su, and J. Li. 2021. “F-Net: Fusion Neural Network for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving.” In ICASSP 2021 – 2021 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 4095–9.Search in Google Scholar
Weil, Gabriel. 2024. “Tort Law as a Tool for Mitigating Catastrophic Risk from Artificial Intelligence.” SSRN, https://ssrn.com/abstract=4694006 (accessed May 31, 2025).Search in Google Scholar
Wittman, D. 1977. “Prior Regulation Versus Post Liability: The Choice Between Input and Output Monitoring.” The Journal of Legal Studies 6 (1): 193–211. https://doi.org/10.1086/467567.Search in Google Scholar
Zeng, W., X. Chen, and K. Tong. 2022. “Research on Traffic Light Timing Optimization and Simulation.” Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University 47 (4): 597–603. https://doi.org/10.13203/j.whugis20200029.Search in Google Scholar
© 2025 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston