The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan
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Faiz Ur Rehman
Abstract
Many governments, political economists and terrorist experts consider the use of military and police forces as the ultimate way to effectively deter terrorism. The most effective negative sanctions are considered to be military strikes, aggressive actions (including crackdowns, search operations, raids and shelling) against individuals known or suspected of being terrorists, or against organizations and persons who allegedly support terrorists. Do these negative sanctions effectively deter terrorism? To explore this question, I test displacement, diffusion of terrorism control benefits and vengeance hypotheses of terrorism prevention interventions in Pakistan. The displacement proposition holds when policy intervention raises the opportunity cost of terrorist activities in a given geographic space, thus, increases terrorist incidents in the neighborhoods, where opportunity cost is low. If the same policy decreases terrorism in the adjacent neighborhood, the diffusion proposition holds. Lastly, the vengeance hypothesis illustrates that intervention decreases the opportunity cost of terrorism which escalates more violence. This study explores district level spatial variation in terrorist incidents and terrorism prevention strategies from 2001 to 2012. It shows that terrorism prevention interventions significantly displace terrorism to the neighboring units. The results further illustrate that spatial differences in the legal framework across districts against terrorism related crimes lead to significant cross sectional variation in terrorist attacks.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Michael Faure, Paolo Vanin, participants of the Bologna and Rotterdam Institutes of Law and Economics seminar series and Italian Association of Law and Economics for their valuable comments and Education, Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA) for research assistance under Erasmus Mundus doctorate programme. All remaining errors are my own.
Appendix A – Variable Descriptions and Data Sources
| Variable | Description | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Terrorist attacks | The GTD defines terrorism as “terrorist attack as the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation.” The district level (2001–2006) and (2007–2012) averages/total are calculated. | Global Terrorism Database (2014) |
| Terrorism prevention interventions | Interventions include aggressive, coercive, preemptive or offensive strategies like military strikes, raids, crackdowns, search operations and curfews. | ISPR (2014); Jones and Fair (2010) |
| Population density | The number of people living per square kilometer. | Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan |
| Urbanization | Places with municipal corporation, town committee or cantonment. | Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan |
| Literacy rate | The number of literate persons as percentage of population aged 10 and above. The district level literacy is used for the years 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2008. | Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan |
| Health units | Health units include number of hospitals, rural health centers, basic health units, dispensaries, etc. The district level (2001–2006) and (2007–2012) averages are calculated. | Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan |
| Election turnout | Percentage of votes polled to registered votes. The district level turnout is used for the years 2002 and 2008. | Election Commission of Pakistan |
| Police | Total number of police stations and substations in a district. The district level (2001–2006) and (2007–2012) averages are calculated. | Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan |
| Drone strikes | Number of drone strikes in a district. The district level information (2007–2012) are calculated. | Standord Law School (2012) |
| Tribal elders | Number of Tribal elders targeted by terrorist groups. The district level information (2007–2012) are calculated. | SATP (2014) |
| Frontier crimes regulation (FCR) | FCR comprises a special set of laws of Pakistan which are applicable to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of northwestern Pakistan. The law states that three basic rights are not applicable to the residents of FATA appeal, wakeel and daleel (the right to request a change to a conviction in any court, the right to legal representation and the right to present reasoned evidence, respectively). | Bureau of Statistics (FATA Cell), Planning and Development Department, FATA Secretariat, Peshawar, Pakistan |
Time Series of Terrorist Attacks in Districts of Baluchistan Province, 2001–2012.
Time Series of Terrorist Attacks in Districts/Agencies of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), 2001–2012.
Time Series of Terrorist Attacks in Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province, 2001–2012.
Time Series of Terrorist Attacks in Districts of Punjab Province, 2001–2012.
Time Series of Terrorist Attacks in Districts of Sindh Province, 2001–2012.
Year-Wise Spatial Distribution of Terrorist Incidents in 2001–2006.
(A) Terrorist incidents in 2001. (B) Terrorist incidents in 2002. (C) Terrorist incidents in 2003. (D) Terrorist incidents in 2004. (E) Terrorist incidents in 2005. (F) Terrorist incidents in 2006.
Year-Wise Spatial Distribution of Terrorist Incidents in 2007–2012.
(A) Terrorist incidents in 2007. (B) Terrorist incidents in 2008. (C) Terrorist incidents in 2009. (D) Terrorist incidents in 2010. (E) Terrorist incidents in 2011. (F) Terrorist incidents in 2012.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan
- OTC Stock Market in China – The New Venture Capital Exit?
- Deficiencies of the Rule of Law and the Legal Culture, and Its relationship to Underdevelopment
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- On Public Host Liability
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan
- OTC Stock Market in China – The New Venture Capital Exit?
- Deficiencies of the Rule of Law and the Legal Culture, and Its relationship to Underdevelopment
- The Political Economy of the Implementation of the Bankruptcy Law of China
- On Public Host Liability
