Monte Carlo Simulation for High School Football Playoff Seed Projection
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R. Drew Pasteur
In Ohio high school football, playoff teams are selected and seeded using an objective point system. Roughly one-fourth of the state’s teams earn playoff berths, and higher seeds host first-round games. Even in the final week of the season, a team’s playoff chances can depend on the outcomes of dozens of other games, making direct computation of playoff probabilities impractical. To make playoff-related predictions, we first estimate win probabilities for all remaining regular-season games by applying a predictive ranking algorithm, then repeatedly simulate the remainder of the regular season. Using the aggregate results, we predict the playoff qualifiers and seeds, and also estimate conditional probabilities (based on the number of future wins) that particular teams earn a berth or a home game. In tracking the results of this model over two seasons, we find that modeling future games substantially increases the accuracy of seed predictions, but adds far less value in predicting the qualifying teams. This phenomenon may be related to the specificity of seed prediction, as compared to the more general nature of predicting a group of teams likely to qualify. That is, the additional information is most useful when making more specific predictions.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Artikel in diesem Heft
- Conference Paper
- Uncovering Europe's Best Goalscorers from the 2009-2010 Season
- Dynamic Effort, Sustainability, Myopia, and 110% Effort
- The Intra-Match Home Advantage in Australian Rules Football
- The Relationship between Leader Experience and Team Performance in Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Designs
- Stratified Odds Ratios for Evaluating NBA Players Based on their Plus/Minus Statistics
- Dependence Relationships between On Field Performance, Wins, and Payroll in Major League Baseball
- Optimal Dynamic Clustering Through Relegation and Promotion: How to Design a Competitive Sports League
- Perception ? Reality: Analyzing Specific Allegations of NBA Referee Bias
- NFL Prediction using Committees of Artificial Neural Networks
- An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance
- Monte Carlo Simulation for High School Football Playoff Seed Projection
- Defining the Performance Coefficient in Golf: A Case Study at the 2009 Masters
- Reconsideration of the Best Batting Order in Baseball: Is the Order to Maximize the Expected Number of Runs Really the Best?
- Never Too Late to Win
- An Extension of the Pythagorean Expectation for Association Football
- Pitcher Accuracy Through Catcher Spotting: Assessing Rater Reliability
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